http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/online-betting-site-intrade-halts-operations/

Somehow Intrade.com went off just a few days before the Cyprus 'surprise'. But everyone says Cyprus is just a small piece of the euro pie. If so, why does EU hang on instead of letting it default and kick it out of the euro? Is Cyprus that small? Contagion won't happen. Really?

@Hisah. Indeed, gold has rebounded off the lows around $1560 and the U.S. Dollar continues to defy the doomsday scenario by acting as a safe haven as it did in the 1930s.

Bitcoin is acting as a scrip or substitute paper money the same way the U.S. had Depression Scrips due to a shortage of paper currency in the 1930s. This was a direct result of the thousands of bank failures and hoarding of money.










Even the American Civil War of 1861 to 1865 caused a drastic shortage of coinage resulting in scrip issuance.



[quote=hisah]@KK - Have a look at this... Capital flight into bitcoin... Gold is has also rebounded after the hard selloff last month fuelled by Cyprus spanner in the works.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/fleeing-the-euro-for-bitcoins-.html


[quote]Worried your government is going to take your savings? There's an app for that.

Actually, there's an entire currency: Bitcoin, an online-only currency based on a decentralized network. It's unregulated, hard to track and increasingly common. Since Sunday, downloads of three Bitcoin-related apps have surged on Spanish charts, Bloomberg Businessweek reports.

The interest in Bitcoin coincided with news that the Cyprus government planned to tax savings accounts as part of the country's bailout program. The value of the online currency increased more than 20 percent in the past two days to $64, according to the latest price information.

The downside is it's a currency that has experienced price fluctuations, occasional hacking and account thefts, and is a favorite for black-market transactions, including almost 2 million a month in illegal online drug purchases at the Silk Road marketplace. That some Europeans are investing savings in Bitcoin isn't exactly a sign of confidence in European banking.

According to a European Central Bank report published in October, increased demand for Bitcoin "could have a negative impact on the reputation of central banks," especially if the public perceives Bitcoin's rise is due to "a central bank not doing its job properly."[/quote][/quote]

BRICs summit - http://www.brics5.co.za/

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cyprus-bailout-failure-would-shake-stocks-2013-03-23?mod=wsj_share_tweet

This week the Cyprus drama will be determined - bailout or default.

My trading the news strategy
- Bailout failure will see global stocks selloff then recover in a month's time for the next rally cycle. Think Greece crisis and US downgrade past events.
- Successful bailout will see global stocks rally only to selloff hard in a few weeks time.

From the look of things a successful bailout is the likely setup. Stocks are quite high and a catalyst is needed to present a discount window.

Btw April will likely be a sellside in both cases! Market discounts must come...

Cyprus bailout + positive headlines = Perfect trade setup for the trap - http://www.cnbc.com/id/100574390

When GS puts an overweight rating on something, shitty deals abound...