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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#3371 Posted : Saturday, March 28, 2020 10:51:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
https://youtu.be/FgnukiqovaA

CrossFit
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3372 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 8:25:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
SAFARICOM



Circle waves (i) and (ii) in place. Expect a strong sharp down move to levels below 24.00 in the coming days to make for circle wave (iii). Initial targets 14.00 .
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3373 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 8:33:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX


Expect NSE 20 Share index to continue falling to levels below 1700.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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wukan
#3374 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 8:52:25 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
Those proposed taxation measures have cooled the perma-bulls. There is no easy way out long painful recovery unless we do structural adjustment of the economy.
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muandiwambeu
#3375 Posted : Wednesday, April 08, 2020 2:48:58 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX


Expect NSE 20 Share index to continue falling to levels below 1700.

The only meaningful threat to a living being is that which threatens it's life.
Covid 19 is and scampering for safety is a must
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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mnandii
#3376 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 2:19:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Isn't this a sign of bank-runs that is surely coming? @vvs your banks are about to get a beating

Quote:
Saccos fight to survive as desperate members cash in subscriptions

Quote:
The Co-operative Alliance of Kenya has launched a funds drive to help savings and credit societies (Saccos) in the horticulture, hospitality and Aviation industries adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Chief executive Daniel Marube said the Co-operative Coronavirus Response Committee would solicit funds from co-operative societies, local and foreign well-wishers to cushion the affected saccos from imminent collapse.

He said the affected societies have suffered reduced incomes with members sent home and others forced to take a salary cut. This has seen an upsurge in withdrawals adversely affecting liquidity in the said saccos.

“There is a concern by the management of the affected societies that their members are withdrawing savings to cater for their families’ basic needs.

“This trend, if not curtailed is likely to affect the liquidity levels of the societies and equally discourage the saving culture in the country,” said Mr Marube.



Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3377 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 2:20:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
Isn't this a sign of bank-runs that is surely coming? @vvs your banks are about to get a beating

Quote:
Saccos fight to survive as desperate members cash in subscriptions

Quote:
The Co-operative Alliance of Kenya has launched a funds drive to help savings and credit societies (Saccos) in the horticulture, hospitality and Aviation industries adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Chief executive Daniel Marube said the Co-operative Coronavirus Response Committee would solicit funds from co-operative societies, local and foreign well-wishers to cushion the affected saccos from imminent collapse.

He said the affected societies have suffered reduced incomes with members sent home and others forced to take a salary cut. This has seen an upsurge in withdrawals adversely affecting liquidity in the said saccos.

“There is a concern by the management of the affected societies that their members are withdrawing savings to cater for their families’ basic needs.

“This trend, if not curtailed is likely to affect the liquidity levels of the societies and equally discourage the saving culture in the country,” said Mr Marube.





link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#3378 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 2:34:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
It is important for all to note that the current crises we are experiencing will not end any time soon. It may well be the beginning of a much more difficult deflationary environment.

As long as the NSE 20 Share Index keeps falling (the waves show that a bottom is still far away) the physical and economic situation will continue to get worse. This is Socionomics and we have forecasted these conditions over several posts in this thread.It's also precisely why Elliotticians and Socionomists advocate keeping hard cash. With cash you will have something when banks collapse. And the value of your holdings will increase substantially especially at a time when everybody else will have lost theirs.

Of course you must forget about real estate for now and for a long time to come. Their values have started falling and have a long way to fall further. No one is going to bother about property any time soon.

And since you have more time in your hands by virtue of the quarantine, consider reading CONQUER THE CRASH BY ROBERT PRECHTER. You should have read it long time ago but you still have time to help yourself.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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VituVingiSana
#3379 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 11:38:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
Isn't this a sign of bank-runs that is surely coming? @vvs your banks are about to get a beating

Quote:
Saccos fight to survive as desperate members cash in subscriptions

Quote:
The Co-operative Alliance of Kenya has launched a funds drive to help savings and credit societies (Saccos) in the horticulture, hospitality and Aviation industries adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Chief executive Daniel Marube said the Co-operative Coronavirus Response Committee would solicit funds from co-operative societies, local and foreign well-wishers to cushion the affected saccos from imminent collapse.

He said the affected societies have suffered reduced incomes with members sent home and others forced to take a salary cut. This has seen an upsurge in withdrawals adversely affecting liquidity in the said saccos.

“There is a concern by the management of the affected societies that their members are withdrawing savings to cater for their families’ basic needs.

“This trend, if not curtailed is likely to affect the liquidity levels of the societies and equally discourage the saving culture in the country,” said Mr Marube.




1. Not all banks are equal but "my" banks should be fine but there are no guarantees.
2. SACCOs are different from banks. The owners/depositors/borrowers of SACCOs tend to be from the same pool. That's a plus and minus. The plus is the losses are primarily contained within the group. The minus is those in that group will suffer.
3. Banks are heavily scrutinized and since 2008 have better buffers. Again, not all banks are the same. "My" banks are solid at the moment. The future is unknown.

Would you like to revisit this? I propose May 2021 after 1Q 2021 results are out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#3380 Posted : Friday, April 10, 2020 11:44:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
It is important for all to note that the current crises we are experiencing will not end any time soon. It may well be the beginning of a much more difficult deflationary environment.

As long as the NSE 20 Share Index keeps falling (the waves show that a bottom is still far away) the physical and economic situation will continue to get worse. This is Socionomics and we have forecasted these conditions over several posts in this thread.It's also precisely why Elliotticians and Socionomists advocate keeping hard cash. With cash you will have something when banks collapse. And the value of your holdings will increase substantially especially at a time when everybody else will have lost theirs.

Of course you must forget about real estate for now and for a long time to come. Their values have started falling and have a long way to fall further. No one is going to bother about property any time soon.

And since you have more time in your hands by virtue of the quarantine, consider reading CONQUER THE CRASH BY ROBERT PRECHTER. You should have read it long time ago but you still have time to help yourself.

Deflation is not all bad. It's about relativity.
Example: In 2018, I could sell my house for 1mn and buy 2 flats for 1mn. Now I can get 800k for the house but the 2 flats for 800k as well then RELATIVELY speaking little has changed.

As for good income-producing assets, the ROI is important. Would cash have been better? Yes but cash also has a cash-drag (esp in the USA, EU, Japan but not in Kenya) currently. That said, cash offers optionality as is today, was yesterday and will be tomorrow.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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