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Kenya Economy Watch
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hisah
#311 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 4:53:11 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Scubidu
#312 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 9:11:48 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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dunkang
#313 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 9:54:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Starting from yesterday, Kigali government has more than TRIPLED its road toll charges on all Tanzanian trucks/lorries entering Rwanda. The TZ trucks are now to pay $500 per truck from $153 that trucks from all other EAC member states pay. This is viewed as an atempt by Kigali to force its citizens to use only the Mombasa port in Kenya.

Will we see Express Kenya gain from this Dodoma-Kigali 'cold war'?

DATA:-
- Rwanda pop. is 12.3M which is 30.1% that of Kenya
- 67% of all Rwandese cargo currently pass through TZ with the rest mostly passing through KE-UG route.
- Rwandese goods contributed around 8.4% of the Dar-es- salaam port cargo in 2012.
- The Dar-Kigali road route is about 1200km km long, whilst the Mombasa-Kampala-Kigali road route is 1450km long.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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mwekez@ji
#314 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 11:59:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.


ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow
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Cde Monomotapa
#315 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 12:49:49 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
dunkang wrote:
Starting from yesterday, Kigali government has more than TRIPLED its road toll charges on all Tanzanian trucks/lorries entering Rwanda. The TZ trucks are now to pay $500 per truck from $153 that trucks from all other EAC member states pay. This is viewed as an atempt by Kigali to force its citizens to use only the Mombasa port in Kenya.

Will we see Express Kenya gain from this Dodoma-Kigali 'cold war'?

DATA:-
- Rwanda pop. is 12.3M which is 30.1% that of Kenya
- 67% of all Rwandese cargo currently pass through TZ with the rest mostly passing through KE-UG route.
- Rwandese goods contributed around 8.4% of the Dar-es- salaam port cargo in 2012.
- The Dar-Kigali road route is about 1200km km long, whilst the Mombasa-Kampala-Kigali road route is 1450km long.


I suppose the end game here is the rail from KE-UG-RW. Better to consolidate all/most activities at one port. Why have your customs officers at MSA and not using it while at the same time levying your citizens for the imports (to pay for the rail)? Could see the trucking biz through Kenya increase indeed for the duration (2018*). Let's see.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, September 03, 2013 12:51 PM | Reason: Not specified
murchr
#316 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 2:31:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
dunkang wrote:
Starting from yesterday, Kigali government has more than TRIPLED its road toll charges on all Tanzanian trucks/lorries entering Rwanda. The TZ trucks are now to pay $500 per truck from $153 that trucks from all other EAC member states pay. This is viewed as an atempt by Kigali to force its citizens to use only the Mombasa port in Kenya.

Will we see Express Kenya gain from this Dodoma-Kigali 'cold war'?

DATA:-
- Rwanda pop. is 12.3M which is 30.1% that of Kenya
- 67% of all Rwandese cargo currently pass through TZ with the rest mostly passing through KE-UG route.
- Rwandese goods contributed around 8.4% of the Dar-es- salaam port cargo in 2012.
- The Dar-Kigali road route is about 1200km km long, whilst the Mombasa-Kampala-Kigali road route is 1450km long.


I suppose the end game here is the rail from KE-UG-RW. Better to consolidate all/most activities at one port. Why have your customs officers at MSA and not using it while at the same time levying your citizens for the imports (to pay for the rail)? Could see the trucking biz through Kenya increase indeed for the duration (2018*). Let's see.


Very interesting
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#317 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 4:23:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.


ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow

VAT bill will have a spike effect on inflation (plus crude oil's current price spike) which will make CBK defensive (hawkish) on CBR before year end.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#318 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 4:44:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Just seen this tweet. Someone confirm if this is the case since I can't see anything from the RSS feeds from the media streams.



$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#319 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 4:54:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
Just seen this tweet. Someone confirm if this is the case since I can't see anything from the RSS feeds from the media streams.





;-) http://www.centralbank.go.ke/im...September%203%202013.pdf
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mwekez@ji
#320 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 5:04:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.


ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow

VAT bill will have a spike effect on inflation (plus crude oil's current price spike) which will make CBK defensive (hawkish) on CBR before year end.


CBK has alleviated fears that it could turn hawkish and maintained CBR at 8.50 percent. ... It further notes that new VAT measures will contribute to short-term increases in inflation, but the effects will be mild. ... The MPC note is by and large bullish about economic growth smile
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