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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20

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VituVingiSana		#3141 Posted : Saturday, August 03, 2019 9:56:21 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,353 Location: Nairobi		mnandii wrote: Mayoo! She's accelerating DOWNWARD! And some people think that stocks are at a bargain? That it's time to buy? Depends on what one wants. Mumias? KQ? HAFR? or Good quality stocks? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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mnandii		#3142 Posted : Monday, August 05, 2019 9:43:50 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		rwitre wrote: mnandii wrote: Mayoo! She's accelerating DOWNWARD! And some people think that stocks are at a bargain? That it's time to buy? NSE slide sees dividend beat Treasury bill yields Quote: The prevailing yields on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-bills stand at 6.59 percent, 7.37 percent and 8.99 percent respectively. NSE data shows as per Monday’s share prices, 17 firms had dividend yields that were at least matching or beating the lowest T-bill rate. The rise in the dividend yields (dividend per share as a percentage of share price) is as a result of falling share prices at the NSE, with the benchmark NSE 20 share index trading at nine-year lows at 2646 points. . . . Five out of the 11 listed banks have a dividend yield that is at least higher than the lowest T-bill yield of the 91-day paper, withBarclays Kenya (10.48 percent) and Standard Chartered (9.69 percent) offering a higher yield than the one-year T-bills. . Other firms offering a dividend yield higher than the one-year T-bill include Kapchorua Tea at 10.93 percent, Williamson Tea at 12.16 percent, Nation Media Group at 10.78 percent, Umeme at 10.13 percent and Kenya Re at 11.31 percent. ScanGroup has the highest dividend yield in the market at 34.78 percent, but this is on account of a special dividend of Sh3 per share that declared in April on top of an ordinary dividend of Sh1 per share. Some of the firms offering high dividend yields have seen their share prices tumble in spite of recording a good financial performance. They have been dragged down by the overall bearish sentiment in the market. As you wait to perfectly time the bottom, let the rest of us begin taking bits off the market. If it continues heading south, we'll increase buying margins. Either way, buying season is here. Be careful! The market can remain irrational longer can you can remain solvent. I foresee a situation where you'll cash out at a loss. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#3143 Posted : Monday, August 05, 2019 9:48:54 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		mnandii wrote: rwitre wrote: mnandii wrote: Mayoo! She's accelerating DOWNWARD! And some people think that stocks are at a bargain? That it's time to buy? NSE slide sees dividend beat Treasury bill yields Quote: The prevailing yields on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-bills stand at 6.59 percent, 7.37 percent and 8.99 percent respectively. NSE data shows as per Monday’s share prices, 17 firms had dividend yields that were at least matching or beating the lowest T-bill rate. The rise in the dividend yields (dividend per share as a percentage of share price) is as a result of falling share prices at the NSE, with the benchmark NSE 20 share index trading at nine-year lows at 2646 points. . . . Five out of the 11 listed banks have a dividend yield that is at least higher than the lowest T-bill yield of the 91-day paper, withBarclays Kenya (10.48 percent) and Standard Chartered (9.69 percent) offering a higher yield than the one-year T-bills. . Other firms offering a dividend yield higher than the one-year T-bill include Kapchorua Tea at 10.93 percent, Williamson Tea at 12.16 percent, Nation Media Group at 10.78 percent, Umeme at 10.13 percent and Kenya Re at 11.31 percent. ScanGroup has the highest dividend yield in the market at 34.78 percent, but this is on account of a special dividend of Sh3 per share that declared in April on top of an ordinary dividend of Sh1 per share. Some of the firms offering high dividend yields have seen their share prices tumble in spite of recording a good financial performance. They have been dragged down by the overall bearish sentiment in the market. As you wait to perfectly time the bottom, let the rest of us begin taking bits off the market. If it continues heading south, we'll increase buying margins. Either way, buying season is here. Be careful! The market can remain irrational longer can you can remain solvent. I foresee a situation where you'll cash out at a loss. And remember my very first post in this thread perfectly timed a top in NSE 20 Share Index. I expect to do the same at the bottom of this bear. By then I expect most people will have been shaken out. That's how bottoms and tops are made! (Right when there are no more people to sell(at bottoms) or buy (at tops)). Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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lochaz-index		#3144 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2019 9:12:36 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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wukan		#3145 Posted : Thursday, August 08, 2019 10:14:56 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654		lochaz-index wrote: NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted
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lochaz-index		#3146 Posted : Thursday, August 08, 2019 2:10:01 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		wukan wrote: lochaz-index wrote: NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Global bond market has gone parabolic more so on the super long dated papers, KE is no exception which sets up a nice bond bull trap. Of concern is that back in 2008, NSE was reeling from the after effects of a global recession and PEV. At the moment, it is at the same levels pre-crisis both locally and internationally. NASI suggests if there is no bounce at current levels then it is a cliff fall ahead for mid and small caps. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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mnandii		#3147 Posted : Thursday, August 15, 2019 8:01:18 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		The time to buy property will come. Let the market bleed first! HF puts Sh2bn customer houses up for auction Quote: Listed mortgage lender Housing Finance (HF) has put on sale customer houses worth an estimated Sh2 billion, pointing to widespread distress in the real estate sector. The lender has signed up auctioneers to sell off the houses and commercial buildings, in a move aimed at trimming its non-performing loans portfolio. Majority of the 54 properties that are on sale in Nairobi and its environs are standalone houses and apartments whose reserve prices range from Sh3.4 million to Sh300 million. The sales are a reflection of the struggles that mortgage holders are going through as thousands have lost jobs across different sectors of the economy. link Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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obiero		#3148 Posted : Thursday, August 15, 2019 8:10:42 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,232 Location: nairobi		wukan wrote: lochaz-index wrote: NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!
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mnandii		#3149 Posted : Friday, August 16, 2019 6:28:35 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		obiero wrote: wukan wrote: lochaz-index wrote: NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii		#3150 Posted : Friday, August 16, 2019 6:53:39 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304		Banks and insurance companies (financial sector) are a risk in a bear market. When I mentioned this back in 2015s -2016s I was immediately greeted by hardcore fundamental analysts who pointed out that the fundamentals in the banking sector were strong. Well, we have our bear market now and banks and insurance companies are facing difficulties. We have banks that are now retrenching and Mwalimu Sacco bank has just lost a CEO. Remember banks loan out money using property as collateral? And the real estate industry is already in bear market territory! But there is worse to come so long as the NSE keeps falling. Mwalimu Sacco bank CEO quits Quote: Naaman Ambunya, the chief executive of the Mwalimu National Sacco majority-owned Spire Bank has quit the troubled lender at a time it needs to turn around its struggling business. The bank has tapped its former general manager, Onesmus Muia to replace Mr Ambunya in an acting capacity, the Business Daily has learnt. In a letter to the bank chairman, Teresa Mutegi, Mr Ambunya underlined several challenges the bank faces, mainly delayed recapitalisation. “I summarise the key matters confronting the bank that require immediate resolution—otherwise the financial sustainability of the bank is at a huge risk — which, have been presented before in board committees since 2017,” said Mr Ambunya. “They include immediate stable funding without which deposit mobilisation efforts are unlikely to yield sufficient results for financial sustainability. The deposits held at the bank are largely for working capital and are very short term. The customers use the funds on a daily basis.” BD Link Why would a CEO of a bank quit? Is he concerned about the doomed future of the institution? Now the fundamentalists would have you believe that there are institutions with strong fundamentals and you just have to invest in those. Unfortunately for this kind of mindset the financial sector depends alot on positive sentiment. If there is even a whiff of trouble then the whole system almost certainly collapses. In any case banks do lend out more than they have in deposits. Therefore a bank run will most certainly ruin even the seemingly stable ones. Keep hard cash, buy 'hard' US dollars and consider buying cryptocurrencies (especially bitcoin once it falls back toward $5000). Disclaimer: This analysis depends wholly on the direction of the stock market (and the NSE 20 Share Index in particular) which I have forecasted to keep falling. If by some miracle the Index turns around and starts to rise strongly (above 4300 for example) then I will reconsider my conclusions herein. But for now, be safe, DO NOT BUY REAL ESTATE and certainly DO NOT BUY STOCKS. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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