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When is the Next NSE Bus Leaving the Stage
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the deal
#301 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 8:55:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
the deal wrote:
T-Bills are currently offering inflation beating returns thus expect fund managers/foreigners to pack their money there until the t-bills fall below the inflation rate due to over subscriptions, at that point if it comes the NSe would top at 4000-4500 since foreigners would start dumping Kenyan bonds and the low interest rates would pop up imports sending the Kes to new all time lows...inflation would then start picking up forcing CBK to hike CBR...this scenario is likely to occur in Q1/Q2 2013.

Another scenario is for inflation to bottom in the next 1-2 month due to an upward spiral in the crude price due to easing in advanced markets, in that case the pump price would shoot up and inflation would follow...foreigners/fund managers would dump stocks and buy bonds thus forcing stocks to pick at 4000-4500...this scenario is likely to occur in 4Q 2012... Q1/Q2 2013.

Conclusions: A correction is coming...play it safe! The elections will steepen this correction!


The index dropped by 39 points today to closed at 3792 although on small volumes...crude oil continue to climb up.
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Cde Monomotapa
#302 Posted : Monday, August 13, 2012 9:09:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
M'bus! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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hisah
#303 Posted : Tuesday, August 14, 2012 6:51:46 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
the deal wrote:
T-Bills are currently offering inflation beating returns thus expect fund managers/foreigners to pack their money there until the t-bills fall below the inflation rate due to over subscriptions, at that point if it comes the NSe would top at 4000-4500 since foreigners would start dumping Kenyan bonds and the low interest rates would pop up imports sending the Kes to new all time lows...inflation would then start picking up forcing CBK to hike CBR...this scenario is likely to occur in Q1/Q2 2013.

Another scenario is for inflation to bottom in the next 1-2 month due to an upward spiral in the crude price due to easing in advanced markets, in that case the pump price would shoot up and inflation would follow...foreigners/fund managers would dump stocks and buy bonds thus forcing stocks to pick at 4000-4500...this scenario is likely to occur in 4Q 2012... Q1/Q2 2013.

Conclusions: A correction is coming...play it safe! The elections will steepen this correction!


The index dropped by 39 points today to closed at 3792 although on small volumes...crude oil continue to climb up.

Unwinding overbought conditions. Waiting to see foreigner action late Sept to Nov for clues esp on KCB, Equity, Mpesa bank & EABL. Closely looking at FTSE NSE 15 & 25 index.

I still expect one more upthrust before 2012 is over for NSE to test 4000pts as Q3 results are reported. Then a sideways trend despite good 2012 fiscal results till past elections if politics looks ugly.

Alternatively if CBR is cut by more than 300bps, then NSE should ramp to 4200pts by year end. 4400 level still remains a solid barrier for now.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#304 Posted : Saturday, August 18, 2012 3:27:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
What happened to the GEMS market segment? I thought it was supposed to begin operations mid this year?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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hisah
#305 Posted : Saturday, August 18, 2012 8:33:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
What happened to the GEMS market segment? I thought it was supposed to begin operations mid this year?

Maybe stella went with it...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#306 Posted : Friday, August 24, 2012 12:17:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Stocks at price range 10 - 20. KPLC, HFCK, NBK, Centum, Total, KK and KQ

Let's take a snapshot referencing 4th Jan 2011 prices for each stock respectively. (Prices ignore rights/bonuses etc that may have occurred between then and now).

24.50, 26.50, 42.25, 23.50, 29.00, 10.05 and 46.75.

Only KK is in the positive! Most of this stocks. Now which ones do not belong to this ugly duckling parade...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#307 Posted : Friday, August 24, 2012 12:20:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Yields on Kenya's 182-day T-bills rise to 12.801 pct - http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL6E8IIFWC20120718

Tbill yields still rising, NSE still rising... The tbill auctions are still undersubscribed. I don't like what I'm seeing. This is an ugly fight between equities and money markets and the loser will bleed badly...

Quote:
Commercial banks have been putting their funds into Term Auction Deposits in the repurchase agreements market, which have been offering higher returns than Treasury bills.

Yep, tbill hoarder left holding the crap bag...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#308 Posted : Friday, August 24, 2012 12:23:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank is showing strength than the index... Bulls taking over!


Still showing strength than NSE for the 2nd month going into the 3rd month.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#309 Posted : Friday, August 24, 2012 12:38:24 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
For those wondering where I got the prices on post 306 above, use this link and set the date filters - http://www.wazua.co.ke/i...or/performancecalc.aspx

I'm liking the stocks with more than 40% price slump. There are some diamonds there and some are still discounted if you do a YTD snapshot between Aug 23 2011 and Aug 23 2012.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#310 Posted : Friday, August 31, 2012 4:48:44 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank is showing strength than the index... Bulls taking over!


Still showing strength than NSE for the 2nd month going into the 3rd month.

Mpesa bank bull strength waning. 4/- is solid resistance and time is running out! Time to take profits.

Coincidentally the NSE is also getting sluggish. KCB is also seeing more supply of late. The bluechips are cooling down.


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, August 31, 2012 4:49 PM | Reason: Not specified
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