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Presidential Opinion Polls Tracking - now to 2012
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harrydre
#301 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 6:43:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/10/2008
Posts: 9,131
Location: Kanjo
githundi wrote:
githundi wrote:


Am looking at these figures and the sampling frame is biased
e.g in eastearn they polled 2 counties leaning to cord that is kitui and machakos while only one jubilee leaning (Meru)to give cord 61% to jubilees 28%. More to follow

http://www.infotrakresea...TRAK%20POLL%20FINAL.pdf
The counties sampled for Mombasa did not include Mijikenda counties.
They are also giving Cord 36% in riftvalley as opposed to Jubilees 52%. AM ASKING, FROM WHERE?
I project at least 70 % support for jubilee in Rift and as Angela says round 50 % in nairobi drastically changinging her biased poll. they give cord 54% against Jubilees 37 % in Nairobi.
What i fear is this expectation that the poll creates in cord supporters which are misplaced.
They create false expectations.
I expect Infotrack polls to show a tight race by polling day just to give credibility to their polls as they did in 2007/2008.
They also forget that jubilee leaning zones have traditionally have high turnout compared to corn leaning zones.




so what is pamba doing in nyeri if he is assured of 51%?
i.am.back!!!!
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Lolest!
#302 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 6:45:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
Much Know wrote:
A Raila win is becoming increasingly likely, particularly because the marginal candidates (PK/ Martha) and their supporters have been unwittingly campaigning for Raila and made it their business to fight UHURUTO. Everywhere "we will be doomed by foreigners", if we vote Uhuruto. Riala might very well win this one.

Si nilikwambia? Kwanza round 2 90% PK, Kiyiapi, Karua people will vote CORD.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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Lolest!
#303 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 6:48:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
harrydre wrote:

so what is pamba doing in nyeri if he is assured of 51%?

51% from a pollster who is your bosom buddy isn't enough. Actually 51pc from any poll isn't enough. You need to keep people thinking and hearing about you and from you till the election day.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 11, 2013 7:22 PM | Reason: Not specified
githundi
#304 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 6:55:16 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/19/2010
Posts: 1,308
Location: nairobi metropolitan
McReggae wrote:
Problem is you want them to post your tribal permutations yet this is a scientific research on the situation on the ground .......


Wait for march 4th and revisit the thread there after.
Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Coolio
#305 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 7:06:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 2,276
Location: Kibish
Angelica _ann wrote:
Amores wrote:
McReggae wrote:
@Liv:
The same Infrotak you dismiss had predicted as too close to call the 2007 presidential elections!!!


And remind me again who won the elections?


Nobody knows who won that erection except God!

Chunga matamchi @Hanna.
Nadondosha meli kubwa seuze ngalawa!
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xyzee
#306 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 7:08:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/9/2009
Posts: 1,262
harrydre wrote:
githundi wrote:
githundi wrote:


Am looking at these figures and the sampling frame is biased
e.g in eastearn they polled 2 counties leaning to cord that is kitui and machakos while only one jubilee leaning (Meru)to give cord 61% to jubilees 28%. More to follow

http://www.infotrakresea...TRAK%20POLL%20FINAL.pdf
The counties sampled for Mombasa did not include Mijikenda counties.
They are also giving Cord 36% in riftvalley as opposed to Jubilees 52%. AM ASKING, FROM WHERE?
I project at least 70 % support for jubilee in Rift and as Angela says round 50 % in nairobi drastically changinging her biased poll. they give cord 54% against Jubilees 37 % in Nairobi.
What i fear is this expectation that the poll creates in cord supporters which are misplaced.
They create false expectations.
I expect Infotrack polls to show a tight race by polling day just to give credibility to their polls as they did in 2007/2008.
They also forget that jubilee leaning zones have traditionally have high turnout compared to corn leaning zones.




so what is pamba doing in nyeri if he is assured of 51%?


If you were ever No. 1 in a particular term in school, do you stop revising for the final exam?
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githundi
#307 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 7:11:50 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/19/2010
Posts: 1,308
Location: nairobi metropolitan
Lolest! wrote:
Much Know wrote:
A Raila win is becoming increasingly likely, particularly because the marginal candidates (PK/ Martha) and their supporters have been unwittingly campaigning for Raila and made it their business to fight UHURUTO. Everywhere "we will be doomed by foreigners", if we vote Uhuruto. Riala might very well win this one.

Si nilikwambia? Kwanza round 2 90% PK, Kiyiapi, Karua people will vote CORD.

It might not happen. do not quote this opinon poll. The sample is biased
Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Lolest!
#308 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 7:38:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
githundi wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Much Know wrote:
A Raila win is becoming increasingly likely, particularly because the marginal candidates (PK/ Martha) and their supporters have been unwittingly campaigning for Raila and made it their business to fight UHURUTO. Everywhere "we will be doomed by foreigners", if we vote Uhuruto. Riala might very well win this one.

Si nilikwambia? Kwanza round 2 90% PK, Kiyiapi, Karua people will vote CORD.

It might not happen. do not quote this opinon poll. The sample is biased

I have not based my comments on the poll. I can't trust infotrak with their obvious bias.

I have to admit I am one of those who underestimated UMK. I never took him seriously until when he launched his website in 2011. That's when I realised he was serious with the presidency! I am yet to visualise him making a 'Wakenya wenzangu' speech on Madaraka day.

But a lot has gone well for him desoite the issues. Even the prophets or is it 'prophets' predict a win for him. See what one of them said;

Mutahi Ngunyi wrote:

21h ‏@MutahiNgunyi

Kenyans believe in witchcraft more than science. Kiambu alone has 860,000 registered voters. These jubilee suspects COULD win. Add the math!
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Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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simonkabz
#309 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 9:39:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon

Infotrak founder and group
CEO - Angela Ambitho! General
manager - Tobias Odhiambo.
Operations manager - Juluis
Ochieng' Co-owner - Jerry
Okungu Senior researcher -
Adams Oloo Administration -
Philip Odhiambo Chief
Accountant - James Opiyo
Senior editor - Clinton
Ojiambo , Head of
Communications - Janet
Oyongo Driver - Fidel Onyango
Messanger - Harriet Oguda..
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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harrydre
#310 Posted : Friday, January 11, 2013 10:09:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/10/2008
Posts: 9,131
Location: Kanjo
simonkabz wrote:

Infotrak founder and group
CEO - Angela Ambitho! General
manager - Tobias Odhiambo.
Operations manager - Juluis
Ochieng' Co-owner - Jerry
Okungu Senior researcher -
Adams Oloo Administration -
Philip Odhiambo Chief
Accountant - James Opiyo
Senior editor - Clinton
Ojiambo , Head of
Communications - Janet
Oyongo Driver - Fidel Onyango
Messanger - Harriet Oguda..



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly LO! so basically what you are trying to say here is for example of the 229 respondents 'selected' from central & mount region, over half of them happen to be kasins?? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
i.am.back!!!!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, January 11, 2013 11:34 PM | Reason: Not specified
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