T-Bills are currently offering inflation beating returns thus expect fund managers/foreigners to pack their money there until the t-bills fall below the inflation rate due to over subscriptions, at that point if it comes the NSe would top at 4000-4500 since foreigners would start dumping Kenyan bonds and the low interest rates would pop up imports sending the Kes to new all time lows...inflation would then start picking up forcing CBK to hike CBR...this scenario is likely to occur in Q1/Q2 2013.

Another scenario is for inflation to bottom in the next 1-2 month due to an upward spiral in the crude price due to easing in advanced markets, in that case the pump price would shoot up and inflation would follow...foreigners/fund managers would dump stocks and buy bonds thus forcing stocks to pick at 4000-4500...this scenario is likely to occur in 4Q 2012... Q1/Q2 2013.

Conclusions: A correction is coming...play it safe! The elections will steepen this correction!

Loads of volume yet again on Mpesa bank. Getting ready to break above 4/- handle likely by Friday next week. Interesting to see this counter is showing more strength than the index...

Kuishi kwingi. Kuona mengi

Rich words on 08.08.2012 regarding safaricom (the bellwether stock)

Safaricom closed unchanged at 3.85 and traded 2.406m shares worth 9.259m. There was Buy Side Interest for 300% more Shares than were traded during the Session. Safaricom is +30.508% in 2012 and sits 2.531% below its 2012 and 12 Month Closing High of 3.95 from July 26th and August 3rd. 4.00 is Proving a Near Term Hurdle but I believe it will be hurdled before long.

Lots of profit takin seen in Scom particularly over the last 2weeks.
Also note that foreigners are on the sell side & they've been selling at 3 95!!!
Watch out for a temporary pull back in this counter!!