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Safaricom Half Year 2010/2011 results review
2012
#21 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 5:52:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
guru267 wrote:

@2012 i think you're abit to pessimistic... Price wars have been going on for only a month and last year they announced 9.8billion PBT...

I was expecting 12 but i'm sure we'll get 10.8billion....

Though the second half is what we should be most worried about...


I fished out this prediction so that you'll see its the 2ND HALF you should be worried about

NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT THESE RESULTS AT ALL...

Before the price wars I was expecting a H1 PBT of 12 billion after the price wars began I revised this target to 10.8 billion and then they go ahead and give me ONLY 10.4 billion

All the guys praising these results should know they are in line with expectations of safcom pessimists like me....


I have to give it up to you on that one. I honestly never saw it happening. That said, I don't think they'll pull it off that easily this second half. What's your say?

BBI will solve it
:)
Much Know
#22 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 5:57:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
Safcom customer growth picked again end september to about 18k new customers per day, others dropped after august early september gains at onset of price wars. Fy results will be good, never mind what crystal ball analyst say
Ras Kienyeji Man
guru267
#23 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 6:12:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
And i want you to get me clear here,the 1.6 market share loss is not to zain,but to deaths,pple becoming bunkrupt,orange and yu the rest.


@mlennyma I think you know market share for voice is measured by number of active sim cards right???
So if I bought a zain,YU,Orange line it doesnt mean my safcom line becomes inactive does it immediately...

Infact it remains active for around 6months after use is discontinued and the price wars began barely 2months before the Half year end. And yet safcom still managed to record a loss of 1.6% market share...

When the sim cards that were dumped finally go inactive maybe a better picture will be seen smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#24 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 6:27:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hahahaha @Guru what are u smoking?
chris79
#25 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 6:29:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/31/2007
Posts: 341
@guru, the long and short of it is that the zain initiated tariff wars have failed to ignite the sort of mass migration that they had projected, even with your 6 month theory. At 18k new customers PER DAY, safcom is proving to be like the proverbial mugumo tree versus the razor blade...
guru267
#26 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 6:37:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Hahahaha @Guru what are u smoking?


Very nice green leaves/grass VERY NICE.. smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
muganda
#27 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 6:50:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Prepaid subscribers churn if they have not made or received a chargeable event for 120 days from the date of airtime expiry.

Results show increase in churn from 27.6% to 31.2%
mozenrat
#28 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 7:13:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/18/2008
Posts: 796
muganda wrote:
@guru267, tough direct lady... smile
Ökay so my expectations were worse off especially after reading Bharti's results earlier today, which were definitely below expectations. Did you see?

@mozenrat, your comment reminds me of a post I saw alleging KDN is facing wind-up over Kes 1 billion debt owed to the guy who maintains their cables, Soliton Telme, hence poor response whenever anything goes assunder.
http://nairobitech.blogs...lion-debt.html?spref=tw




I guess Orange are in trouble then... The cables cut apparently belong to them.
Much Know
#29 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 7:38:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
For smaller players, i believe its deal or die, (cede to price fixing) they are loosing money and customers, its also the most opportune time for vodafone to offer gova a price for majority shareholding, an extra 10% stake at 5.50/- maybe
Ras Kienyeji Man
mozenrat
#30 Posted : Wednesday, November 10, 2010 8:28:57 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/18/2008
Posts: 796
Much Know wrote:

its also the most opportune time for vodafone to offer gova a price for majority shareholding, an extra 10% stake at 5.50/- maybe



God forbid.. hebu tema hayo mate... You can imagine having the KEBs-like squabbles in Safaricom.. May it never happen.. Ptuh..
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