I do not see any significant change in the prices even if the referendum goes through. There could just be temporary excitement. The market has already factored in the Yes victory possibility given the high rating Yes has received. This is unlike the previous referendum and elections when the contest were very close.


Micro and macro economic conditions will be major factors in the NSE performance.

Only difference being that the MPigs actually get whatever they want, at all costs.

Looks we have many prophets of doom in Wazua. Me thinks the refundum will go through and there will be little excitement, just short-term like the Spanish did after wining the World Cup. The NSE will be driven by fundamentals of the economy. I think there will be no chaos.

@guru, I expect a yes win. A look at the markets from 1 week prior to 1 week post ref is:
- wait for the referendoom to play itself out and carry the risk of capital losses (-10%) with possible reward of 10% (market recovery)
- Bail out now (-5% liquidating costs), wait to get into volatile counters (they will take a 10-20% beating in the next 2 weeks, so giving +15% gains afterwards; then a market recovery of 10% (as above). Final position is +20% while eliminating political risk.

Just my thinking

We can't all be civilized like Namibians. In a weird sense, the 'late' independence was good for Namibia... Or you do not agree?