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Housing Finance
Gordon Gekko
#21 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 10:20:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Isnt it amazing that Equity, an outfit that started off as a building society (mortgage lender) left its core business, meandered to banking and is now trying to get back into the mortgage business again?
Wa_ithaka
#22 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 10:33:43 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Mkonomtupu, Ksh26 for HFCK? On what basis?
That would give it a P/E of 26!
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
mkonomtupu
#23 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 10:41:31 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Equity amazes me, if you trying to take over a company wasn't it in their strategic interest to infiltrate the board tactfully, now with all the muscle of shuffling the board it may just cost them dearly. They have to a pay premium to take over HF. The best thing would have been to mop up the shares over time to beat the 25% rule then take over the board.
GG i think they saw a gap in the banking sector but now its now looking saturated and they want to retain customers by giving them mortgages. It would make sense if a rural farmer can get a mortgage of 0.5-1m to put a house on his shamba. If HF could do even 100,000 mortgages of this kind the results would be amazing. The problem with HF is that its too elitist and Gatabaki was really old-fashioned in his strategy.
guru267
#24 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 11:09:34 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Wa_ithaka wrote:
Mkonomtupu, Ksh26 for HFCK? On what basis?
That would give it a P/E of 26!


again with the P/E ratio!!!! peeps really need to stop using this method to value counters as something major especially with growth stocks....

i wish some wazurians knew that on some markets like hang seng in china more than 50 stocks are trading with a P/E of more than 80 and yet they continue going up and up....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Wa_ithaka
#25 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 11:59:08 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Guru- a little knowledge,little knowledge...
HFCK is not as far as I know China-based. China's economy is growing at a guaranteed 9-10% pa. Kenya's is growing at a guaranteed 2-3%. China is known to be undergoing a bubble hence recent measures by its CBN to burst by tightening reserve requirements

A p/e, like interest rates, inflation for the economy and share price for stocks is an important barometer of where investors are seeing earnings going for a particular stock.

Even if I applied a forward EPS of 1.50 (i.e. that HFCK will growing earnings by 50% in 2010), we are still at a forward P/E of 17. Way too high.

The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
guru267
#26 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 12:37:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@wa_ithaka i was simply giving china as an example....
but to cut a long story short. Investors know that HFCK has major potential and can raise their profits way over 1billion easily with equity's help and it is for this very reason equity will be willing to pay 26 and even more than that to get hold of this cash cow....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#27 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 12:51:15 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Wa_ithaka, I would not strictly go with p/e, I exited HF at 65/- after transcentury stopped showing interest and the p/e was really high and still the demand was high. Sometimes you have to consider the latent potential in some of the companies. HF properly capitalised as department in eq would grow earnings to match the price quite easily. If its a hostile take-over eq can afford to pay premium and still recoup after a few years.
Cowpoke
#28 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 3:35:16 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/16/2007
Posts: 36
I've been away from the kenyan market and thus, Its been a while since i logged in or even in actively following the kenyan stock market.
However, after reading a few posts, i couldn't help but offer my two-cents.

One, there is no one perfect ratio to use to determine the viability of an investment. Rather, its a process, series of analysis actions that make a conclusive decision. Each of the ratios stated earlier are good and useful to analyse a particular aspect of the firm's business, not on the entire business.
Two, i use the firm's financials and analyse the quality and utilisation of the firm's assets, liabilities, and equity using the various ratios stated before.
After analysing all this, the key thing i use to analyse any investment or in this case, stock, is sustainable competitive advantage. Basically, how competitive the company is and the likelihood that its going to keep that competitiveness in the near future due to no. of competitors, ease of entry into market, its margins, type of business & its effect on cashflows, target market etc. All this is tempered with economic and consumer trends.
From there, i can determine if its worthwhile to purchase the stock at the prevailing market prices or not.

On the topic at hand, Bank's generally have a low ROA but a relatively high ROE (15-30 range). In my opinion, Housing finance does not have very solid financials. Actually, they are weak. Also, the margins, the capital challenges, the maturity gap challenges are key issues that need to be addressed before Housing Finance performance significantly picks up.
sparkly
#29 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 3:43:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
The irony... Equity started as a building society and was one just the other day. What was HF doing all this time?
Life is short. Live passionately.
2012
#30 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 5:13:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
The irony... Equity started as a building society and was one just the other day. What was HF doing all this time?


HFCK was busy exploiting our parents with unreasonable, unrealistic, inconsistent mortgages. Ask anyone who took a HFCK mortgage in the 80s and 90s and he'll tell you of the horrors they went through. HFCK was horror on earth.

BBI will solve it
:)
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