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Investment in shares in a politically charged Country is for steel hearted
the deal
#21 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 11:14:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
One can bail out now n come back lets say 3 month from now the nse will still be the same...i expect politics to intesify in the coming months as a result most foreigners will watch from the sidelines with lack of foreign participation the nse will suffer...or the kenyan shilling will head south as a result foreigners like me will have more cash i n our pockets to invest so that will trigger our return to the nse...
VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 11:39:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
One can bail out now n come back lets say 3 month from now the nse will still be the same...i expect politics to intesify in the coming months as a result most foreigners will watch from the sidelines with lack of foreign participation the nse will suffer...or the kenyan shilling will head south as a result foreigners like me will have more cash i n our pockets to invest so that will trigger our return to the nse...

You are an exception to the rule... coz u r a local foreigner...

Local foreigners are in tune with what happens on the ground... not those who do not live there...

I invested in Zimbabwe... then mugabe decides 51% for locals... I decided to bail (with losses)... why? Coz I wud rather deal with Kenya where I (think) know the lay of the land... plus being a local local...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
smano
#23 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 12:21:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 2,589
@Fundaah, your post reeks of speculation! Surely there are extended periods where you have seen gains regardless of the political bickering. Sometimes it's better to switch to defensive stocks during volatile periods if you can't stand the heat, stocks which have good dividend history and are less cyclical in nature - BAT,EABL and SCB come into mind.

Anyone who bought last year averaged down pretty well or is still laughing to the bank. You know better than to exit at loss territory. So what will you invest in, land?
BEER IS LIVING PROOF THAT GOD LOVES US AND WANTS US TO BE HAPPY!
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 12:32:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
@smano - easy to say about averaging down... I went all in in early 2008 (thinking that calm will prevail... then came serious PEV)...

I cud not exit except at loss... then when prices fell further... I had no cash to buy more!!!

If the PEV had not happened, Kenyans would have managed through the Global Financial Crisis + Drought much better...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#25 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 12:57:26 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Average down looks good in hindsight. But when the market is going down you swear to stay off shares. Fear is twice as powerful as greed.

the deal
#26 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 3:04:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs hehehe i kinda benefit since i keep most of my money in my standard bank nam account believe me my savings account does much better than most stocks @ the nse during political turmoil i.e pev 2007 the ksh vs rand was 15 bob so my money also rose accordingly while stocks @ the nse fell.
the deal
#27 Posted : Wednesday, February 24, 2010 3:05:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs hehehe i kinda benefit since i keep most of my money in my standard bank nam account believe me my savings account does much better than most stocks @ the nse during political turmoil i.e pev 2007 the ksh vs rand was 15 bob so my money also rose accordingly while stocks @ the nse fell.
wasee
#28 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 5:05:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/5/2010
Posts: 273
Location: NBI
I seem to agree with fundaah. its for the steel hearted, also people with connections hence can make quick buy and exit decision based on insider info they get and also luck.
Brewer
#29 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 1:00:19 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/24/2008
Posts: 238
Is it just me or does everyone not remember stocks plummeting because of PEV in early 2008, because the fall around that time was insignificant compared to the fall starting the 3rd quarter of 2008 because of global financial crisis. Moral of the story, watch the Dow Jones very carefully.
guru267
#30 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2010 1:19:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Brewer wrote:
Is it just me or does everyone not remember stocks plummeting because of PEV in early 2008, because the fall around that time was insignificant compared to the fall starting the 3rd quarter of 2008 because of global financial crisis. Moral of the story, watch the Dow Jones very carefully.


@Brewer the current correlation with the dow jones is only justified because foreigners are controlling most of the days trade...

i dont see this correlation applying if locals take back control of the market...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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