In 1992 and 1997 the bourse performed very well.Infact in 97 it was one of the best performers in the world.2002 lows was because of the dotcom bubble.

@ cicero i hate how politics determines one's life in kenya...how did kenya end up creating powerful politicians(mafias) who run around with so much impunity that they think they own kenya...from a foreigners perspective i'm only here till 2011...

@cicero i've just read this thread and your portfolio is very interesting...
if you have 2012 in sights then you should then in my view:
try and get out of:
kengen: prolonged low EPS and large debt but its good for a 10 year play
sasini:very volatile earnigs and very low interest in it as a counter

but for the rest hold them because;
KQ: air traffic is predicted to be higher on its routes than it has ever been plus its expansion but be weary about oil prices
Equity and KCB: they will benefit hugely from any economic growth estimated at.(4% this year and above 6% next year)
kenya re; it will benefit from world recovery and pick up in intl. trade due to its intl. exposure
mumias and EABL: will greatly benefit from the ever growing middle class

The lesson from 2008 PEV is that kenyans have no appetite for prolonged crisis. Remember people calling radio stations to complain they don't have airtime or how they missed the new years bash. I think the middle-class is strong enough to ensure stability. Anyway geo-politically kenya is too strategic to be allowed to fail. 2012 is time to buy just like 2002 KQ was 7/-

@2012.. the conflict started the day after the poll results were announced and ended the day after the coalition was formed on paper and that can hardly be called tribal wars... and let us not forget what happened in 1992...
the conflict was very political but it just so happened that the two parties were supported by different tribes..
but with 2012 no one will be seeking re-election and conflict usually arises when the incumbent doesnt want to leave..