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Market Direction with Election
Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2015 Posts: 249 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. I also think take your 45% and if things are smooth sacrifice 10% of this 45% for commission and price appreciation to buy back @Trafalgar78,you could as well recoup your principal and leave the 45% gains.As for me,am all in(balls included) if the market capitulates,nasema "sande yesu" alafu naziokota on the cheap. Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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mamilli wrote:mlennyma wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. I also think take your 45% and if things are smooth sacrifice 10% of this 45% for commission and price appreciation to buy back @Trafalgar78,you could as well recoup your principal and leave the 45% gains.As for me,am all in(balls included) if the market capitulates,nasema "sande yesu" alafu naziokota on the cheap. That's a sober approach
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 238
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Be greedy when others are fearful. The NSE has proven to be independent of politics. Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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mufasa wrote:Be greedy when others are fearful.
The NSE has proven to be independent of politics.
Very independent
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Trump himself is unstable
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Anyone who wins or rigs needs to do it with a clear margin of 700k+ votes. A tight result will start a big circus but that's also good for buyers.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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whiteowl wrote:Anyone who wins or rigs needs to do it with a clear margin of 700k+ votes. A tight result will start a big circus but that's also good for buyers. The stakes are high, and pressure is mounting.  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Trump himself is unstable And not too sure Trump will be disappointed with associations with the Russians...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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winston wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:winmak wrote:sparkly wrote:Trafalgar78 wrote:What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.
Thanks.
These are the potential outcomes after the election: 1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market. 2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market. 3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses. In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits. Is NASA really that business unfriendly? For your reading https://docs.google.com/...GvPdqDOHsAY/mobilebasic
Quote:
CONCLUSION: A Raila Odinga administration will not fit in with Trump Administration‘s strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region, and USG’s economic interests in East Africa. Furthermore, President Kenyatta’s administration has been a reliable partner in the Global war on Terror, and a valued ally in a volatile and explosive region. The United States cannot afford to gamble with an unpredictable leader, who could re-initiate their dealings with the Russian bloc or other nations that do not share our values.
Trump himself is unstable And not too sure Trump will be disappointed with associations with the Russians... Exactly
KQ ABP 4.26
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