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Winning Portfolio 2016 & beyond
Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents My price targets have not been reached. That is my main reason. The margin of safety is not good enough for me right now, since I plan on making at least five-fold returns in four years. Stocks are high risk investments, so I expect a high reward if I buy at the right prices. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/28/2014 Posts: 188 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. 17 is far fetched now...I bought them at 17 but I don't think they are likely to drop back to that level... for someone wanting to buy I would say 19.5 is more likely IMO Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents My price targets have not been reached. That is my main reason. The margin of safety is not good enough for me right now, since I plan on making at least five-fold returns in four years. Stocks are high risk investments, so I expect a high reward if I buy at the right prices. That's a great plan The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents My price targets have not been reached. That is my main reason. The margin of safety is not good enough for me right now, since I plan on making at least five-fold returns in four years. Stocks are high risk investments, so I expect a high reward if I buy at the right prices. That's a great plan The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents My price targets have not been reached. That is my main reason. The margin of safety is not good enough for me right now, since I plan on making at least five-fold returns in four years. Stocks are high risk investments, so I expect a high reward if I buy at the right prices. That's a great plan 5 fold in 4 yrs, that's close to 100% CAGR! Name one single stock likely to give such returns. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,840
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Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents People sold shares and bought dollars anticipating share prices to fall because of the election and the dollar to hit the roof because of the "fallout" (to be) occasioned by the ICC cases and "choices have consequences". Needless to say, it did not work out very well for them!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,840
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents My price targets have not been reached. That is my main reason. The margin of safety is not good enough for me right now, since I plan on making at least five-fold returns in four years. Stocks are high risk investments, so I expect a high reward if I buy at the right prices. That's a great plan 5 fold in 4 yrs, that's close to 100% CAGR! Name one single stock likely to give such returns. I would also want to know the stocks and target purchase and sale price. Things like KCB BP: 30/= SP: 150/= (Actually, to get five fold RETURNS you have to sell at 180/= having bought at 30/=) we see which is more UNrealialistic than the one. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I would be more than happy with 2-3 fold. Which is very achievable The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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Concentrated Investing by Warren Buffett http://seekingalpha.com/...p;uprof=68&dr=1#alt2Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 830
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MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents My price targets have not been reached. That is my main reason. The margin of safety is not good enough for me right now, since I plan on making at least five-fold returns in four years. Stocks are high risk investments, so I expect a high reward if I buy at the right prices. That's a great plan 5 fold in 4 yrs, that's close to 100% CAGR! Name one single stock likely to give such returns. I would also want to know the stocks and target purchase and sale price. Things like KCB BP: 30/= SP: 150/= (Actually, to get five fold RETURNS you have to sell at 180/= having bought at 30/=) we see which is more UNrealialistic than the one. Check stock performance for Safaricom between 31st Dec 2011 and 31st Dec 2015. Achieving a fivefold return is possible, and even easier if you play the market and know what you are doing. Actually, it is harder if you stick with one counter for the whole period. A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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