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Rental houses- one of the worst investments
heri
#21 Posted : Tuesday, April 14, 2015 10:54:07 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
iris wrote:
heri wrote:
The optimist wrote:
heri wrote:
i have concluded that building houses for rent is one of the worst investments other than for those people who do money laundering

i know this may have been discsused under mortgage topic but would appreciate anyone who can share their experience

With Ksh 15M one can build 8 houses of 2 bedrooms each giving a rent of about sh 22k hence kshs 176K per month assuming 100% occupancy

after monthly agents costs, security, garbage, etc you can end up with net rent of Kshs between 140-150K

However, factoring in financing costs. assuming the kshs 15M was borrowed at 12% for a period of 15 years , the total mortgage repayment is Kshs 181K. Monthly interest alone is kshs 97K

Theoretically therefore one would have to pay about kshs 40K each month from the pocket


The returns are very low and to me i fail to understand how rental houses can ever be considered to be a business!

the actual return on the investment is about 3% per year ignoring the houses value appreciatiation

Quite an eye opener. I think rentals are better off when not financed.


@optimist, whether the money is borrowed or not is not really the issue since either way, you still need to factor in the cost of capital when evaluating the return on the investment. Even if you did not borrow the money, you would be forgoing a return of say 10% from just buying bonds with the Kshs 15M as an example


@Heri, what you are not taking into account is that quite a big %age of people build incrementally; perhaps sacrificing weekend drinking money for cement. The money may eventually add up to 15M, but that same person would not have the discipline to save that amount of money if s/he was not constructing.


i guess that is true, what am saying is it is also important to actually critically look at the returns
heri
#22 Posted : Tuesday, April 14, 2015 10:58:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
Gathige wrote:
@heri, every investor is assumed to make a rational choice in the choice of the investment vehicle that is preferred.eg whereas a young and information savvy investor may opt for stocks based on ability to analyze publicly available information and intelligence on companies, a retiree with a huge retirement payoff may settle for rentals to "park" his cash and release it in monthly bits as rental income with minimal hussles.

Borrowing to finance rentals esp with the current interest rate regime generates negative returns in most cases.


That is very true. But i wonder whether all the houses i see being sold for rent are bought by retirees.

I agree every investor has to make his /her choice
Dawnwoods
#23 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 12:34:47 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/22/2014
Posts: 56
Greatwall, Thitifini and Gathige excellent contribution!! Great Topic @heri
UpcomingPaperChaser
#24 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 1:02:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/20/2015
Posts: 489
Location: Nairobi
What an interesting topic!

Another example, i have a lady friend who is a member of staff at Barclays Bank, she took a loan of 5 million to buy an apartment in Pangani area of Nairobi with a monthly rent of 30k. Assuming that the loan repayment is so flexible and that she will only be allowed to use the income from rent to offset the loan,(thats the 30k), it then means that, at an interest rate of 5%, she will be using all the money she gets as rent to pay the loan for a period of 17 years!!!!! she will start enjoying her rent at the 18th year, if at all she will still be alive!!

Example 2: in Zimmerman there is what we call Toa-Tugawe where 10 people contribute in equal share to buy a 50 by 100 plot. The whole plot goes for abt 10 million, so this means each buyer will contribute 1 million to own one tenth of an eight (simply, the 50 by 100 plot is divided equally among the buyers). with this, you can construct 4 units of one bedroom each with an income of between 10 - 12k per month. To build one unit, as per local estimates, costs about 700k. So total invested amount = (1 million for land and 2.8 million for construction) equals almost 4 million. If u had taken a loan at an interest of 15%, you will be required to repay the loan for about 120 months! 10 years, and this assumes that all the income goes to repaying the loan. So you will have to suffer for 10 years before you realize the fruits of your labor.

But depending with the nature of the building, its functionality, design, location and finishes, you could get potential buyers within several months of constructing the houses, and if you can manage to sell them all within, lets say 2 years after construction, you might get an overall profit of 25-30%, so this means that after selling your investments valued at 15 million, you might end up having between 18-20 million. After clearing your 15 million loan, you will have like 3 or 4 million on top!!

People still opt to invest in rental properties with loans because its the only investment that guarantees returns, regardless of how little they could be. Unlike other investments where you have to always watch over, you can have rental properties then go and live in Jamaica as you wait for your meager monthly returns. Farming is risky, retail business, wholesale business, hotel industry, stocks all posses a form of risk which doesn't exist in rental units.
Enjoy every moment of your life, you never know when your time will come.
Rongla
#25 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 2:21:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 101
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD
murchr
#26 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 3:15:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
heri wrote:
iris wrote:
heri wrote:
The optimist wrote:
heri wrote:
i have concluded that building houses for rent is one of the worst investments other than for those people who do money laundering

i know this may have been discsused under mortgage topic but would appreciate anyone who can share their experience

With Ksh 15M one can build 8 houses of 2 bedrooms each giving a rent of about sh 22k hence kshs 176K per month assuming 100% occupancy

after monthly agents costs, security, garbage, etc you can end up with net rent of Kshs between 140-150K

However, factoring in financing costs. assuming the kshs 15M was borrowed at 12% for a period of 15 years , the total mortgage repayment is Kshs 181K. Monthly interest alone is kshs 97K

Theoretically therefore one would have to pay about kshs 40K each month from the pocket


The returns are very low and to me i fail to understand how rental houses can ever be considered to be a business!

the actual return on the investment is about 3% per year ignoring the houses value appreciatiation

Quite an eye opener. I think rentals are better off when not financed.


@optimist, whether the money is borrowed or not is not really the issue since either way, you still need to factor in the cost of capital when evaluating the return on the investment. Even if you did not borrow the money, you would be forgoing a return of say 10% from just buying bonds with the Kshs 15M as an example


@Heri, what you are not taking into account is that quite a big %age of people build incrementally; perhaps sacrificing weekend drinking money for cement. The money may eventually add up to 15M, but that same person would not have the discipline to save that amount of money if s/he was not constructing.


i guess that is true, what am saying is it is also important to actually critically look at the returns


If your rental property is giving you 3% returns and a stock investment is giving you 3% div yield...which investment option would you prefer?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Mainat
#27 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 6:40:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Rearry?
Until you understand cashflow, thou shalt never call thyself an investor.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Boris Boyka
#28 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 7:11:36 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Rongla wrote:
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD

Applause Applause Applause @heri take note here!
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
The optimist
#29 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:01:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
Rongla wrote:
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD

Applause Applause Applause @heri take note here!

The mere fact that rental income supports an ecosystem does not make it a better investment to the owner. The owner/Landlord benefits only when the returns are high.
heri
#30 Posted : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 8:05:03 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
Rongla wrote:
I guess the Get rich quick mentality is the biggest problem with Kenyans and its one of the reasons why We, as a country will never develop.
If we all close the property development shop and go into stocks, what will happen to the stocks then? Isnt it not the interest on loans and mortgages that is contributing to the mega profits the banks are making and the subsequent dividends.
The cement, paint, steel etc that goes into the mortgage funded projects that has seen major profits and dividends announcements. The new electricity connections that has returned KPLC to profitability.The millions of jobs the construction industry has created and the ripple effect it has had livelihoods, incomes, Crime reduction etc.
It may be the "worst investment" but it is the engine that drives the "Best investments" . Without them ( rental houses) Nairobi's face will be different ( Will maybe look like Jericho Maringo or worse still, Kibera) and So will be the NSE.
Investments should not only bring in profits but should have positive social and environmental impacts.
We are profit MAD

Applause Applause Applause @heri take note here!



Guys i am not at all advocating for even one moment that we all stop borrowing to buy or build rental houses. Far from it

i am giving my own experience to share what i have experienced and also allow us to discuss. Most important is to allow us appreciate the investment and the returns one can expect

i have constructed and God willing i will do it again and again. I also have shares and fully appreciate that banks stocks give me good returns by lending at those ridiculous rates ( eg CFC which is 50% of my shares portifolio has given me 98% returns after holding for 2 years)

For those advocating for investments that bring positive social and environmental impacts- well that is a different angle to look at it . Am looking at this from purely personal point of view of how i appraise the investment
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