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IMF: Kenya's economy self reliant, don't need EU
Nabwire
#41 Posted : Sunday, February 17, 2013 8:33:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Oh my dear!!!! Are you really this naive??? If I were you I would take like a three week hiatus from this site coz your credibility is rapidly going down the drain. Have you ever travelled outside East Africa?? I shudder that you call yourself a guru yet your ideas are so naive, its laughable. How will the US government stop me from sending money? Do you know how many people live in the US? Do you know that even illegal immigrants can easily send money??So why would the US govt stop me from sending money?? How would they even start implementing that? I have like 4 bank accounts, do you think the US would be willing to waste their time monitoring my accounts which has miniscule amounts compared to the trillions they have? The more you talk, the dumber you sound. I told you I can send a duplicate ATM card to someone in Kenya, should Western Union stop its services (unlikely),I can assure you that the US govt has far more important things to do than to prevent me from sending a couple hundred dollars.In any case, I have rights that the US would have to overcome before stopping me from sending my cash. Actualy that would be a case that would reach the Supreme court, a very expensive process that the US govt would not want to be involved in. People like you are the reason why the west says that Africans' reasoning is like that of a three year old, lets hope we never have your likes leadings our institutions.
new
#42 Posted : Sunday, February 17, 2013 10:49:19 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/4/2013
Posts: 22
Very interesting debate going on here. One truth of life is that "Men lie, women lie, but numbers don't ( or they rarely do anyway)"

truth is, most of the country's budgetary expenditure is financed via taxes, exports and debt. so they ( the west ) basically bank roll our economy directly (loans, grants, Tbonds) or indirectly( trade). Its a sad fact of life and can even be termed unfair that their actions affect our lives, but they do. "he who pays the piper calls the tune" .
in fact the current bull run at the NSE, is basically being driven by foreign capital inflows, that should tell us something, right?

my point is this, we need to trade, we need capital, we need them ( the west) just as much as they need us. well, we might say that we dont need them (the West) coz we have got the East ( china, The BRICS etc) but we forget , the BRICS need the west. The west is the BRICS biggest trading partner ( read Market) and if your biggest customer says "NO/YES" i bet you would listen, right?

take away message, "he who pays the piper calls the tune"
Dum vivimus, vivamus.
guru267
#43 Posted : Sunday, February 17, 2013 11:04:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Nabwire wrote:
So why would the US govt stop me from sending money?? How would they even start implementing that?


The point is to restrict dollar flows to Kenya via remittances!

Maybe its you who needs some exposure Sad

www.fsa.gov.uk/Pages/Abo...l_crime/iran_banks.shtml
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Nabwire
#44 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 4:26:45 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
You know what, you're just wasting my time now,you are quoting the freaking UK for me? Does anyone even care about the UK anymore? Your article talked about sanctions against banks incorporated in Iran, if I send an ATM card, ofcourse it would be of an American bank so there's no logic there. You are clutching on straws to save face. Kenya is such a small country in the grand scheme of things, why would the US go to all these lengths to ensure Kenyans dont send money to Kenya? So sell your pathetic propaganda to akina Mathenge ( no offense Mathenge)
New its not about not needing the west, its about doing business under our own terms, the same way they do business under their own terms.
quicksand
#45 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 7:34:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/5/2010
Posts: 2,061
Location: Nairobi
Eish!!! The vitriol! Imezidi. ...obscures any good points that should come across. Please stop addressing each other for a while to cool the temperatures. smile smile
Liv
#46 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 10:26:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Can someone educate me dispassionately how electing Uhuruto will bring US & Europe sanctions against Kenya.

I saw a clip recently where one of the European ambassadors was saying....they have never talked about sanctions..... that sanctions are a creation of the Kenyan Media.

How do these countries decide to put in place sanctions against another country? What is the process and Who makes the decision?

Does anyone have real examples of where sanctions against a whole country are in place and working and what these sanctions involve?
aemathenge
#47 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 10:48:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
Liv wrote:
Can someone educate me dispassionately how electing Uhuruto will bring US & Europe sanctions against Kenya.

In the Virtual Republic of Wazau?

Not a chance!!
a4architect.com
#48 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 11:39:56 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
Liv wrote:
Can someone educate me dispassionately how electing Uhuruto will bring US & Europe sanctions against Kenya.

I saw a clip recently where one of the European ambassadors was saying....they have never talked about sanctions..... that sanctions are a creation of the Kenyan Media.

How do these countries decide to put in place sanctions against another country? What is the process and Who makes the decision?

Does anyone have real examples of where sanctions against a whole country are in place and working and what these sanctions involve?


@liv..maybe this can help
http://www.reuters.com/a...u-idUSBRE91514220130206

(Reuters) - A European Union court has ruled that the EU should lift sanctions it imposed on one of Iran's largest banks, the second such judgment that could complicate Western efforts to increase pressure on the Islamic Republic.

The ruling further weakens the EU's sanctions regime imposed against Iran's nuclear program, just weeks before six powers are due to resume stalled negotiations with Iran aimed at addressing fears that Tehran is seeking the bomb.

In its ruling on Tuesday, the EU's General Court said the EU had failed to provide sufficient evidence that Bank Saderat was involved in Iran's nuclear program when the bloc targeted it with sanctions in July 2010.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8...ons-are-doomed-to-fail/

It's been spearheaded by Iran and it's bound to translate into an anxious Washington, facing down not only a regional power, but its major strategic competitors China and Russia. No wonder all those carriers are heading for the Persian Gulf right now, though it's the strangest of showdowns -- a case of military power being deployed against economic power.

In this context, it's worth remembering that in September 2000 Saddam Hussein abandoned the petrodollar as the currency of payment for Iraq's oil, and moved to the euro. In March 2003, Iraq was invaded and the inevitable regime change occurred. Libya's Muammar Gaddafi proposed a gold dinar both as Africa's common currency and as the currency of payment for his country's energy resources. Another intervention and another regime change followed.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8...ions-are-doomed-to-fail/
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Liv
#49 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 11:57:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
a4architect.com wrote:
Liv wrote:
Can someone educate me dispassionately how electing Uhuruto will bring US & Europe sanctions against Kenya.

I saw a clip recently where one of the European ambassadors was saying....they have never talked about sanctions..... that sanctions are a creation of the Kenyan Media.

How do these countries decide to put in place sanctions against another country? What is the process and Who makes the decision?

Does anyone have real examples of where sanctions against a whole country are in place and working and what these sanctions involve?


@liv..maybe this can help
http://www.reuters.com/a...u-idUSBRE91514220130206

(Reuters) - A European Union court has ruled that the EU should lift sanctions it imposed on one of Iran's largest banks, the second such judgment that could complicate Western efforts to increase pressure on the Islamic Republic.

The ruling further weakens the EU's sanctions regime imposed against Iran's nuclear program, just weeks before six powers are due to resume stalled negotiations with Iran aimed at addressing fears that Tehran is seeking the bomb.

In its ruling on Tuesday, the EU's General Court said the EU had failed to provide sufficient evidence that Bank Saderat was involved in Iran's nuclear program when the bloc targeted it with sanctions in July 2010.



@a4architect.com,
many thanks.
I am aware of the sanctions against a number of individuals in Iran and Corporates that these people control or those perceived to be supporting the Iran Regime and the nuclear program. In fact I have seen the list with all these names.

However I am looking for a situation where sanctions have been put against the whole country such that no one in the country can do business with US and Europe.

This is because some people here have been insinuating that this will happen where sanctions will be put against every aspect of Kenya.

I wanted to understand if these people talking so passionately about sanctions are talking from knowledge or from ignorance.
a4architect.com
#50 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 12:01:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@liv..basically, the EU and American companies will sue their own govts for coming up with unreasonable directives so unless its a grave substansive issue such as nuclear, i doubt if EU and US can manage to win such cases if sued by their own citizens.

http://www.reuters.com/a...u-idUSBRE91514220130206

"The Council (of EU governments) is in breach of the obligation to state reasons and the obligation to disclose to the applicant ... the evidence adduced against it," the court said in its ruling.

The EU has severely tightened sanctions on Iran over the last two years, seeking to pressure it to curb the nuclear program it fears is aimed at creating atomic bomb capability, a charge Tehran denies.

More than 30 cases are still pending at the General Court, including ones filed by the Central Bank of Iran and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).
Those sanctions severely affected Iran's ability to export oil and carry out international financial transactions.

EU diplomats, who fear the rulings could undermine the sanctions program, say they face the challenge of providing sufficient justification while not compromising intelligence sources when they are drafting sanctions lists.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
kiterunner
#51 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 12:10:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/9/2011
Posts: 730
Location: Nairobi
Nabwire wrote:
You didnt answer my original question, you just danced around it with irrelevant stats. Question was you want them to stay so that they can milk us and pay taxes? This is not a popularity contest, just answer the question directly, your irrelevant stats only amuse people like Mathenge. I dont know where Economics 101 fits into this, these companies are in Kenya because they are making profits. If they are forced to leave ( unlikely) someone else will reap those profits,unless you are implying that Kenyan companies are not capable of paying taxes, in which case thats a question of enforcement. Stop being so blindwashed by western propaganda, you would make more sense if you argued that sanctions will slow down FDI flows but taxes? And who said we have to import clothes? How will sanctions affect how I send money home? I hope you know that I can easily send an ATM card to someone in Kenya, and incurr a $3 charge everytime they withdraw money from Kenya, so how exactly will money flows be affected? Dont just spew irrelevant rhetoric!!



what a simpleton!!!!! acha emotions nabwire, think baby think
our goals are best achieved indirectly
Liv
#52 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 12:11:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
a4architect.com wrote:
@liv..basically, the EU and American companies will sue their own govts for coming up with unreasonable directives so unless its a grave substansive issue such as nuclear, i doubt if EU and US can manage to win such cases if sued by their own citizens.




@a4architect.com,
Does that means the blanket sanctions theory (where all multinationals will be ordered to leave the country, where exports to some companies in Europe will be stopped, Western Union will be closed and you cannot send money anywhere, our children cannot study abroad, etc) being perpetuated here by Guru and company cannot happen?
a4architect.com
#53 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 12:35:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@liv..the EU and US will have to battel it out in courts with the multinationals. For such flimsy reasons as in the Kenyan case, i doubt they can be able to convince their multinationals.

http://www.forbes.com/si...-against-iranian-banks/

Quote:
Reuters is reporting that a European Union court has ruled against the EU banking sanctions imposed on one of Iran’s largest banks, which extends to the payment sanctions imposed by Swift in March of last year. This represents the second such judgment against the banking sanctions and brings into question the legitimacy of using the Swift payments network as an economic weapon.


http://www.forbes.com/si...-against-iranian-banks/

A global network for the transfer of funds loses some of its effectiveness once its neutrality becomes tarnished, because any member of the network could be similarly targeted without recourse.

Leibbrandt said, “There is a dialogue going on around the trade-off between using us as a sanctions tool for other countries and impeding our role as really serving as a global infrastructure mechanism.” He added that “there are lots of alternatives to Swift” and international transactions can still be executed by sending instructions via telephone or email, but such alternatives are “not as secure as Swift and [lack] the convenience factor.”

@nabwire..SWIFT also recognise that they are not a monopoly .
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Liv
#54 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 1:03:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
a4architect.com wrote:
@liv..the EU and US will have to battel it out in courts with the multinationals. For such flimsy reasons as in the Kenyan case, i doubt they can be able to convince their multinationals.

http://www.forbes.com/si...-against-iranian-banks/

Quote:
Reuters is reporting that a European Union court has ruled against the EU banking sanctions imposed on one of Iran’s largest banks, which extends to the payment sanctions imposed by Swift in March of last year. This represents the second such judgment against the banking sanctions and brings into question the legitimacy of using the Swift payments network as an economic weapon.


Many thanks for info.

I take the case for Iran to be an extreme because the world is trying to stop the nuclear program which is a security issue to neighboring countries. However I understand Iranian children are still going to the West for studies as long as they are not related to those in power in Iran.

I am aware that the Sudan sanctions were put against individuals and companies involved in the Darfur conflict around 2004 and influential individuals in Sudanese government. These were approved by the UN security committee in 2005 ... this was way before an arrest warrant was issued by ICC on President El Bashir (which was done in 2009). People have been confusing these 2 issues here.

Must all sanctions be approved by UN security committee, and what does this involve?

mkeiyd
#55 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 1:18:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
Liv wrote:
Can someone educate me dispassionately how electing Uhuruto will bring US & Europe sanctions against Kenya.



@Liv, Kenyan constitutions gives immunity to a sitting president against prosecution. Once elected, the duo might choose to hide under the constitution,you and i will have no way of stopping them.
They've said they'll continue to cooperate,but are they sitting president/deputy yet? Do we expect them to say the truth,the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

I highly doubt. Running the gov't from Hague? How? UK was asked how he plans to run the gov't from the Hague during the debates,instead of answering,he took the cheapest route.
"If Kenyans elect me, then it means they have faith in my ability bla bla bla" Why did he not give the plan?
I've heard people say the bridge will be crossed when we get there. I highly doubt there will be any crossing,thanks to the constitution.
That's HOW sanctions will come. Non-cooperation with the ICC and thereafter, the UN.


@ Nabwire, You send and can send your ATM home because the US gov't lets you. Talk to any Cuban/Venezuelan you might come across. Having said that, i don't think the US gov't will bother with Kenyan remittances.

About multinationals operating in Kenya,we like crying "they milk us". I say they don't. They are investors just like us the locals. If they milk us,then we should try looking/marketing ourselves for FDI. Do you believe the Swedish furniture manufacturing in the US is milking Americans?Is Toyota milking Americans?
The point is, we have four factors of production, only one factor's reward goes to the investor's bank account,PROFITS and most of the time, not all of it. What is the share of profits compared to total revenue?
Now compare the profits to rents/rates, taxes,wages and salaries and other variable costs of production?
Don't look at TAXES only,look at all the other rewards to the other factors of production.
Kenya benefits more from BAT than the shareholders. If BAT closes shop,the shareholders loss would be a drop in the sea compared to the farmers,the suppliers,the employees even without thinking of the gov't.


Multinationals in Kenya are NOT going to close.

However,
with sanctions,it won't be business as usual.
We export apparels to US favorably thanks to AGOA,with sanctions, kiss market away.
We export horticultural produce to EU ,with sanctions,that market might be lost.
Kenya exhibits tourism in any fora we can lay hands on world wide,with sanctions,that won't be the case meaning lower tourist arrivals.

If we cannot get hard currencies from exports and tourism,how are we gonna import oil,machinery and farm inputs? Drugs? Military ware etc etc?
Without oil,farm inputs and machinery,how can we manufacture? Without drugs, we are a sick nation.

Anyone can talk about BRICS,i ask, when was the last time anyone here bought an air ticket,imported machinery or quoted exports in Yuan or Rand?


Bottom line is we need the West,more than they need us.
The West can keep on typing their keyboards without importing anything Kenyan,the line you are about to type has some ware from the West.
If only we could use our minds,build our economy and maybe,in 30 years time,we can start punching with the heavy weights. For now, Kenya is in the feather weight club,how well are we to square it with heavy weights,NOW!
a4architect.com
#56 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 1:22:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@liv. UNSC approves sanctions. Unfortunately, China and Russia hold vetoe powers so sanctions that dont make sense to Russia and China cant pass through.
US and EU have to resort to other methods to enforce such
http://en.wikipedia.org/...ations_Security_Council

http://en.wikipedia.org/...Nations_Security_Council
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Cde Monomotapa
#57 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 1:24:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Hii Propaganda imezidi. Hehe...
a4architect.com
#58 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 1:39:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
China and Russia can not allow sanctions without proper solid valid reasons.
UNSC sanctions are weighty. EU sanctions can be challenged in court as in the SWIFT bank cases currently.

This is how EU imposes its sanctions.
https://www.gov.uk/sanct...argoes-and-restrictions

Why impose sanctions?

Sanctions, including economic sanctions, are put in place for a number of reasons. All recent UN and EU sanctions contain information as to why they have been imposed and specify what their aim is. Their principal purpose is usually to change the behaviour of the target country’s regimes, individuals or groups in a direction which will improve the situation in that country.

The ultimate objective of a sanction varies according to the situation. For instance, an arms embargo and a ban on the export of certain items or raw materials could be aimed at supporting a peace process and restricting the financing of weapons by the combatants. Sanctions may also be aimed at preventing weapons from falling into the wrong hands, disrupting terrorist operations, or trying to change the policies and actions of the target.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
guru267
#59 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 2:16:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Liv wrote:
Can someone educate me dispassionately how electing Uhuruto will bring US & Europe sanctions against Kenya.


Let me try and be as dispassionate as possible! smile

1. If we elect UhuRuto and they co operate with the Hague then there won't be sanctions but just a cut in ties with the West to the bare essentials..

2. If we elect UhuRuto and they DO NOT co operate then we will be in for sanctions..

Nb:(The Kenyan constitution gives immunity to the incumbent president from prosecution OF ANY KIND)
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Liv
#60 Posted : Monday, February 18, 2013 2:23:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
mkeiyd wrote:
Liv wrote:
Can someone educate me dispassionately how electing Uhuruto will bring US & Europe sanctions against Kenya.



@Liv, Kenyan constitutions gives immunity to a sitting president against prosecution. Once elected, the duo might choose to hide under the constitution,you and i will have no way of stopping them.
They've said they'll continue to cooperate,but are they sitting president/deputy yet? Do we expect them to say the truth,the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

I highly doubt. Running the gov't from Hague? How? UK was asked how he plans to run the gov't from the Hague during the debates,instead of answering,he took the cheapest route.
"If Kenyans elect me, then it means they have faith in my ability bla bla bla" Why did he not give the plan?
I've heard people say the bridge will be crossed when we get there. I highly doubt there will be any crossing,thanks to the constitution.
That's HOW sanctions will come. Non-cooperation with the ICC and thereafter, the UN.




@Mkeid
If we rely on what was said by UK during the debate.... he said he is more interested in clearing his name....and therefore he will cooperate with ICC. I guess this is his promise to Kenyans. Why do you doubt he will cooperate and go against this promise? How will Kenya suffer if he cooperates?

In the unlikely event that Uhuruto refuse to cooperate with ICC, you seem to think there will be a blanket sanctions against Kenya.... where every citizen is affected and international business is curtailed (e.g. AGOA business will end). Can you give me an example where that has happened? I am aware of sanctions against individuals but I am yet to see the blanket sanctions against communities / countries.

Why do you think there will be blanket sanctions against Kenya (affecting the whole population).... if that has not been effected elsewhere? Who will approve these blanket sanctions if China and Russia have veto power at the UNSC?
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