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MPC in Kenya HIKES CBK Rate BY 400BP to 11%
Cde Monomotapa
#41 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 10:38:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
cnn wrote:
364 T-bills rate up to 14.499 and the 182 day one up to 14.283 ,these will soar next auction.

Ahem! Time to re-route more customer deposits into GoK paper. Can't knock the bank hustle. Super profits.

@Cde you need to do crical thinking as a course...and which depositer will accept 4% if T-Bill is at 13.7%...the cost of sourcing funds will surge for banks...!

Only informed depositors. Infact Member should mint the most with its vast retail base!
bwenyenye
#42 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 11:13:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
Is the inflation we are experiencing now a demand or supply side driven inflation? If it is manily the former,as I see it, then raising the CBR rate is a waste of time

Is the decline of the Kenya shilling being caused by USD demand for imports( and therefore inflation will stifle it) or a negative BoP? It it is mainly due to the latter, as I see it,then raising the CBR rate is not very wise. This is because you end up hurting the very people you want to help. Or maybe they think we are fueling cars from loans? maybe true but I do not know.
I Think Therefore I Am
Scubidu
#43 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 12:00:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
bwenyenye wrote:
Is the inflation we are experiencing now a demand or supply side driven inflation? If it is manily the former,as I see it, then raising the CBR rate is a waste of time

Is the decline of the Kenya shilling being caused by USD demand for imports( and therefore inflation will stifle it) or a negative BoP? It it is mainly due to the latter, as I see it,then raising the CBR rate is not very wise. This is because you end up hurting the very people you want to help. Or maybe they think we are fueling cars from loans? maybe true but I do not know.


@bwenyenye. The prof seems to still believe it's supply driven. People seldom look at language used by the govenor but this time he said "these complimentary actions should effectively signal relief to the supply constraints that have been driving inflationary expectations..." Relief... sounds like a contradiction... or maybe he's trying not to loose face.

Fundamentally the liquidity in the market has been high ... rising since last year, which he believes was necessary for private investment. But it was bound to overheat (we have way too many imported cars here already). He expected the weak currency to rebalance import demand (lower it) but to what extend are we importing consumer goods. The demand seems inelastic. The decline in KES is due to the negative BOP. I believe raising the cbr will help that.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Mainat
#44 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 1:14:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Will impact inflation. Not sure about fx
Sehemu ndio nyumba
kizee1
#45 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 1:53:20 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
agreed with mainat...kes weaker than it was jana...lol! FAIL!
guru267
#46 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 1:55:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
kes weaker than it was jana...lol! FAIL!


Ndung'u is not fit for office..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
kizee1
#47 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 2:11:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
kes weaker than it was jana...lol! FAIL!


Ndung'u is not fit for office..



no sh** sherlock!
bwenyenye
#48 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 11:24:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/24/2007
Posts: 1,805
I do not think the govt is tackling this thing right. I think the Prof is failing because he is fighting with one hand. To tackle the current scenario requires a multi faceted approach. The first step would be the Agriculture ministry getting off it ass and going to the field to ensure that productivity increases. We should not be importing food in this country and neither should we have shortages of basic things like maize, wheat, beans, sugar etc, When the supply side is sorted, then the Prof can try and attack the demand side like he is attempting. Otherwise, he is bound to fail!

BTW,
Is anyone else as disgusted as I am when the TV fellows bring in investment bank clerks to try and explain Core Banking? Those guys have absolutely NO clue what they are talking about!! Investment banks thrive in uncertainty while Core banks thrive in stability. They do not think alike at ALL!!!!! bruury gasket!!!
I Think Therefore I Am
Mainat
#49 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 12:09:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Bwenyewe: the CBR hike is lopsided on many fronts. Inflation-its current sources are domestic(less rain, money supply in form if M3 has steadily been increasing for many months) and external (oil prices, widening negative BoP gap have led to weaker siringi and therefore higher import cost for all sorts of goods and inputs). Only one of these variables can directly be impacted by the CBR. All the other things will take time to feed through. Weakening $/Ksh rate-this is being driven by widening -ve Balance of Payments gap as we are importing lots more and exporting not as much and hot money. Both can not be changed by CBR.
Our investment banks are only that in name only. Wengi wao wanatafuta kazi ya journalism.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
accelriskconsult
#50 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 12:38:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
I have been told by bankers who sit in the MPC that they have always pushed for the CBK to take stock of money flowing into the country through the Eastleigh based Hawala money transfers. Apparently Ndung'u argues that such money is too little to distort monetary policy.
Mkimwa
#51 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 3:36:47 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2008
Posts: 380
Yesterdays auction on the 91 day treasury bills yielded 12.65bn. Last weeks yielded 7.85bn. Thats an increase of over 4.8bn. Rates went up to 14.86%.

Instead of keeping money in the bank, the logical thing for depositors is to put it into the bills.

This action is likely to mop up excess liquidity from the market. Cost of loans will go up and will eat into people's incomes. Spending reduces, people spend only on basics, and less on luxuries. Its a tough time to be in the business of luxuries. Inflation will be curbed, not so sure about the Fx rate.

Economy will grow at a less rate, due to high cost of capital.

For those attributing the depreciation of the shiling on the imbalance of imports vs exports, a qn for you. Kenya has always been a net importer. ALWAYS. That hasn't changed. Our Balance of Payments has always been tilted one way, so what has changed in this fundamental to warrant the the depreciation?
Mainat
#52 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 3:54:34 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Mkimwa import bill is higher due to higher oil prices; maize/sugar imports and also higher manufacturing imports. Imports have grown at a much faster rate than exports meaning we are earning fewer $s than we are spending...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
FundamentAli
#53 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 3:56:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
The following article appearing in the Daily Nation talks of everything that has gone wrong to get us to this point

http://www.nation.co.ke/Feature...12/-/bg08b4/-/index.html
kizee1
#54 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 4:15:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
FundamentAli wrote:
The following article appearing in the Daily Nation talks of everything that has gone wrong to get us to this point

http://www.nation.co.ke/Feature...12/-/bg08b4/-/index.html



why isnt cbk mentioned in the list of culprits? infact as culprit number one, the other culprits are mere small fish, the big cheese is the cbk
guru267
#55 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 4:21:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
fuel prices are high because of the fall in the shilling and rising crude globally..

food prices are high due to the prevailing drought...

power prices are high because of the prevailing drought..

housing prices are high due to inadequate supply to meet demand...

MY QUESTION IS: Which of these high prices can you curb by raising the bloody bank rate??

im starting to doubt the quality of Ndung'us Phd.. Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Chaka
#56 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 4:24:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/16/2007
Posts: 2,114
Phd=Permanent Head Damage
FundamentAli
#57 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 5:13:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
FundamentAli wrote:
The following article appearing in the Daily Nation talks of everything that has gone wrong to get us to this point

http://www.nation.co.ke/Feature...12/-/bg08b4/-/index.html



why isnt cbk mentioned in the list of culprits? infact as culprit number one, the other culprits are mere small fish, the big cheese is the cbk


Policy failure. CBK is not in charge of the production and trade process. Ministries are

kaifastus
#58 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 6:20:23 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
[quote=guru267]fuel prices are high because of the fall in the shilling and rising crude globally..

food prices are high due to the prevailing drought...

power prices are high because of the prevailing drought..

housing prices are high due to inadequate supply to meet demand...

MY QUESTION IS: Which of these high prices can you curb by raising the bloody bank rate??

im starting to doubt the quality of Ndung'us Phd.. :

Ok. so whats the soln?? we love heaping blame to others for problems affectng us. while it might make us feel better,we need to stop and solve the problem.
the deal
#59 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 6:31:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
It's good to see everybody come out and say this and that...smile
guru267
#60 Posted : Friday, October 07, 2011 8:45:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kaifastus wrote:
Ok. so whats the soln?? we need to stop and solve the problem.


I really wish I could help but im not employed in the MPC and neither am I a consultant for them.

im not blaming anyone for causing this But im pretty sure my dog would do a better job than the "doctor" is currently doing at trying to solve this mess...

The CBK is failing at ALL of its mandates and so has lost meaning..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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