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bonds investments
Mainat
#41 Posted : Friday, September 16, 2011 12:20:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
91day t-bill on 13%? Have I got the wrong info?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Scubidu
#42 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 5:38:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Scooby wrote:
Scubidu,

Kindly provide us with more details so that I could give you a specific response to your concern. Otherwise, I'll try to guess where you are coming from...

Prior to the financial crisis, it was abit hard for an insitution to transfer its fixed income securities from one category to another as it would be punitive for them.

During the fincial crisis, this rule was kinda relaxed at the request of the G20 leaders who thought that such a move would ease the credit crisis. However, it made things worse as it contributed to the liquidity cruch.

Hence,I will be more worried if the transfer was from AFS or HFT to the Held to Maturity category as they could be attempting to avoid recongising significant unrealised losses in their books.

Hope this helps

Regards


@scooby. polee in getting back to you late. Details are in Coop Q1 and H1 results show shifts in its bond portfolio, though i'm told they were accounting errors. They didn't book losses like SCBK did in H1. Didn't know there was a global dimension to the shift in fixed income assets ... that's interesting. Do you have some source material I can read on that?

Within the Kenyan context the shift has been from AFS/HFT to HTM for the reasons you've mentioned which is why bonds between 10-15 years have seldom traded. Last I checked they were down 30% YTD. So realizing such a losses may result in errosion of bank equity. However, none have reflected this except SCBK locally, which I wonder whether it depends on the accounting policies adopted.

Must you recognise unrealized losses every quarter or is it annual? I'd think although these losses aren't in the p&l they should have eroded reserves.

Also what's your take on cap bond pricing on the NSE to limit the distortions repos aka buybacks have on the yield curve?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#43 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 5:40:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@kizee1. They said they'd be testing a primary dealership platform in October ... you heard of any progress on that? Hope it's not a pipe dream.

Has short selling ever been a subject discussed in length between the regulator and market players?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#44 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 5:49:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Mainat wrote:
91day t-bill on 13%? Have I got the wrong info?


Regulator seems to be more interested in debt sustainability rather than designing a workable interest rate structure. They're more comfortable with an inverted yield curve. Let's just see how far it can go this week.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
the deal
#45 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 9:22:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
EQty transfered almost 45 Billion or somewhere in that range held for trading G-sec to held till maturity without recognising any losses or carrying mark to market valuation of their bond holdings...if Enron was in Kenya it would still exit...smile
hisah
#46 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 11:59:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
EQty transfered almost 45 Billion or somewhere in that range held for trading G-sec to held till maturity without recognising any losses or carrying mark to market valuation of their bond holdings...if Enron was in Kenya it would still exit...smile

Are you serious? Eqty practising 1st world money voodoo aka zero hedge Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#47 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 12:03:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Scubidu - how is the mortgage credit pile up. Any hidden skeletons so far across board?

Is that primary dealership the hyped thing on such outfits like JPM & HSBC being the primary dealers (PDs) aka market makers? Not a nice idea this just like floating a eurobond now.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#48 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 12:10:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
EQty transfered almost 45 Billion or somewhere in that range held for trading G-sec to held till maturity without recognising any losses or carrying mark to market valuation of their bond holdings...if Enron was in Kenya it would still exit...smile

Are you serious? Eqty practising 1st world money voodoo aka zero hedge Sad


Yeah, I remember seeing Equity moved a large chunk from AFS to HTM. There's a story in the East African aboutbank profits being 'to good to be true'. They do a ranking on listed banks based on the level disclosure to trading losses, etc... Equity scored a C.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#49 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 12:21:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
@Scubidu - how is the mortgage credit pile up. Any hidden skeletons so far across board?

Is that primary dealership the hyped thing on such outfits like JPM & HSBC being the primary dealers (PDs) aka market makers? Not a nice idea this just like floating a eurobond now.


Nothing so far. I'm thinking that guys will start struggling with mortgages payments and probably on office spaces. Not sure what vacancy rates are in non residential properties. The truth is mortgage credit seems to be targeting existing inventory; but, going by the slow down in prices from Hass... leveraging up is getting riskier. Just how is it to move a house costing 5-10m versus 2-5m?

PD has been discussed for sometime... nothing much has been done. But the testing phase was supposed to be in October. Initially international banks were thot would be licenced (as well as local) for market making given the capital contrainsts. But I'm not sure whether spreads were discussed or capital requirements. PDs may take on unncessary exposure given how CBK randomly shifts the interest structure. What you think?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#50 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 11:03:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Scubidu - I still can't figure out why CBK wanted international banks to be the PDs in KE. As for both local and foreign PDs, well with CBK's disorderly monetary policies which makes fund rates hike similar to matutu or bus fare hikes, the exposure to the PDs would be unacceptable. I think this is why this PD idea has quietly gone underground.

As for the mortgage bit, I've just seen this Biz daily article | http://bit.ly/npITEr | and as long as cement and building & construction is going to the cooler, some mortgage lenders, eh, we will wait for next year...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scooby
#51 Posted : Wednesday, September 28, 2011 2:50:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
the deal wrote:
EQty transfered almost 45 Billion or somewhere in that range held for trading G-sec to held till maturity without recognising any losses or carrying mark to market valuation of their bond holdings...if Enron was in Kenya it would still exit...smile


@ the deal,

For any bonds that are in the HTM category, there should be some foot note somewhere in the annual report indicating the market value of the same bonds.

Am not sure if this is the case with Equity as I haven't reviewed their annual reports.

In that case, I would simply replace the value in the balance sheet with the market value. And the difference would be included in the income statement.

Regards
Scooby
#52 Posted : Wednesday, September 28, 2011 3:01:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
hisah wrote:
@Scubidu - I still can't figure out why CBK wanted international banks to be the PDs in KE. As for both local and foreign PDs, well with CBK's disorderly monetary policies which makes fund rates hike similar to matutu or bus fare hikes, the exposure to the PDs would be unacceptable. I think this is why this PD idea has quietly gone underground.

As for the mortgage bit, I've just seen this Biz daily article | http://bit.ly/npITEr | and as long as cement and building & construction is going to the cooler, some mortgage lenders, eh, we will wait for next year...



@ hisah, allow me to intrude on your chat with scubidu.

CBK was opting to use PDs so as to ensure that all auctions are "successful" as in the case with Uganda and US. That way, the government will be sure of getting at least the entire amount that it is seeking to raise.

I am not sure if the idea has gone underground. CBK could probably be working out the finer details now that the treasury auctions continue to be under subscribed.

They also have to figure out how few players (i.e. the PDs) could be able to cause more havoc to the already fragile monetary policy...sort of the way we are having issues with the oil majors.

Hope this helps.

Regards
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