@deal - what do you mean alarmist... I'd rather you present facts than name calling...
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp - by Q3 2011 the KE GDP growth figures and revisions downwards will say it all... Thus the recession.
Now since you come from Namibia if my memory is correct, the 2011 GDP estimate is 4.8% and public debt as a GDP ratio 2011 estimate is 24.6%. Quite impressive than the KE economy thus Namibia looks more bullish.
As @guru has stated, if Greece goes belly up or any of the PIIGS (which they will based on the available data), we will be faced with a global recession yet again due to the contagion. As a point of reference for you watch how the Namibian Dollar (NAD) handles the USDNAD level at 7.05 - 7.10. Above this zone will present a test of 7.40 - 7.50 levels and inflation will start to spike. If the Greece or PIIGS default is disorderly (likely) the USDNAD can shoot above 8.0 despite the US too facing a default!? (The dollar crunch). At those levels risky asset class in Namibia will not be the place to be... Also note that a number of big econs have already cut back their 2011 GDP estimates from Eurozone, US, Japan and Australia. As for the BRIC, their 2011 Q1 GDP estimate also missed estimates. Therefore, as long as both the major and emerging economies are contracting, frontier markets too will shrink. All this info is available on the internet. Since the China boom was what was sold as the recovery saviour, well this saviour is not working fine... This chinese chip together with those eurozone defaults will take us down. So prepare for this eventuality. If this event can be avoided (a miracle) then all markets will go back to their happy moods
http://www.forexpros.com...s/usd-nad-advanced-chart$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!