Wazua
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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Furthermore, external fundamentals in our favor are the fall in international commodity prices that we import and I still owe you $60-80 crude next yr c/o the crises abroad. Clearly that is a huge load off USD demand in our local FX mkts. Thus, both technical & fundamental factors point to a stronger KES going-forward :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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If i was to use the balance of payment (BoP) valuation model to value the Shilling its OVERVALUED at the current exchange rates unless the BoP shrinks due to the current tightening I will buy USD in 2012.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:If i was to use the balance of payment (BoP) valuation model to value the Shilling its OVERVALUED at the current exchange rates unless the BoP shrinks due to the current tightening I will buy USD in 2012. the only way kes weakens is if they fire up the printers
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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kizee1 wrote:the deal wrote:If i was to use the balance of payment (BoP) valuation model to value the Shilling its OVERVALUED at the current exchange rates unless the BoP shrinks due to the current tightening I will buy USD in 2012. the only way kes weakens is if they fire up the printers Which they will using those archaic rank xerox printers... I dont see how cbk wont monetize. I can hardly wait for the national budget...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:kizee1 wrote:the deal wrote:If i was to use the balance of payment (BoP) valuation model to value the Shilling its OVERVALUED at the current exchange rates unless the BoP shrinks due to the current tightening I will buy USD in 2012. the only way kes weakens is if they fire up the printers Which they will using those archaic rank xerox printers... I dont see how cbk wont monetize. I can hardly wait for the national budget...  Did you see how revenue collection for the current fiscal year was off target? and of course they're still looking for $600 Million from broke Euro zone banks 
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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Kinyua & co know it, no bank global bank will lend Kenya. Most of them are smouldering after writing off Greek sovereign debt. Ample examples of defaults by states exist - Argentina, mexico, Pueto Rico etc.
Unless you are Nigeria holding USD reserves or Botswana sitting on Diamond surpluses, there is no sane bank that will lend a 3rd world african government at this time. In any case our BoP, capital account and Total debt / GDP ratios are scary.
As for the currency, poor clueless MPs, they are sitting earning our money listening to Baloney from bank executives on why the KES lost value. Everyone knows the Eurozone issues have nothing to do with our currency. There is minimal linkage. Banks severely screwed the economy to make easy money with the blessings of Ndung'u. 4 things have fixed the KES, the regulation of USD balances held by banks, taking positions in the market, increasing the CRR and offering USD to oil importers. All these were options available as early as May.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Kausha wrote:Kinyua & co know it, no bank global bank will lend Kenya. Most of them are smouldering after writing off Greek sovereign debt. Ample examples of defaults by states exist - Argentina, mexico, Pueto Rico etc.
Unless you are Nigeria holding USD reserves or Botswana sitting on Diamond surpluses, there is no sane bank that will lend a 3rd world african government at this time. In any case our BoP, capital account and Total debt / GDP ratios are scary.
As for the currency, poor clueless MPs, they are sitting earning our money listening to Baloney from bank executives on why the KES lost value. Everyone knows the Eurozone issues have nothing to do with our currency. There is minimal linkage. Banks severely screwed the economy to make easy money with the blessings of Ndung'u. 4 things have fixed the KES, the regulation of USD balances held by banks, taking positions in the market, increasing the CRR and offering USD to oil importers. All these were options available as early as May.
Yep... http://www.businessdaily.../-/2q8cjpz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Kizee - I have another blasphemous scenario for you similar to the USDKES to test 90/- call. What happens when 91, 182 & 364 day tbills rates surpass the 2yr bond yields... Something Greece has demonstrated very nicely this year as the yield curves inverted... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:hisah wrote:kizee1 wrote:the deal wrote:If i was to use the balance of payment (BoP) valuation model to value the Shilling its OVERVALUED at the current exchange rates unless the BoP shrinks due to the current tightening I will buy USD in 2012. the only way kes weakens is if they fire up the printers Which they will using those archaic rank xerox printers... I dont see how cbk wont monetize. I can hardly wait for the national budget... Did you see how revenue collection for the current fiscal year was off target? and of course they're still looking for $600 Million from broke Euro zone banks Smells like and feels like the recession rains are here  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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There is also the BIG hidden hand of China in the the economic mess we are in.......Now I see why SA and other right thinking African countries are hesitant to open all the doors without conditions to China. I am not saying Chinese investment is bad but the way have done it is extremely wrong.......it has to be very controlled...
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:@Kizee - I have another blasphemous scenario for you similar to the USDKES to test 90/- call.
What happens when 91, 182 & 364 day tbills rates surpass the 2yr bond yields... Something Greece has demonstrated very nicely this year as the yield curves inverted... cud happen, we had an inverted curve as early as q2, remember GoK securities tenders r fixed, cbk fix the outcomes, the cut off has always been a secret..tbill rates are the most rigged FYG
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I wondet how many know that in most cases when an inverted yield curve scenario occurs it always points to a pending recession. So far I don't think wazuans are prepared... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The ECB has decided to bail out Euro Zone banks via Bloomberg
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:The ECB has decided to bail out Euro Zone banks via Bloomberg Yep, and full admission its LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) is another miserable DOA (Dead on Arrival) failure of a plan. And the euro is within a few hours sold hard retracing all gains post ECB rescue news. These ponzi masters have run out of mojo. This euroland show is getting so boring...
Update.
http://www.actionforex.c...y-fades-20111221156084/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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This Dexia bank sagas just won't go quietly... This dying horse has been kicking its legs since 2008. Even a cat doesn't live that long. http://www.actionforex.c...ly-fades-20111221156084/$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Current account deficit Sh133 Billion Shilling link
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:Current account deficit Sh133 Billion Shilling link Oh dear... Tripled
Recession unavoidable... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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hisah wrote:Hmmm... The long term USDKES chart pattern (2yr) looks like the Gold chart back in 2009. If indeed a similar pattern is unfolding, USDKES will in coming months make a new high and surpass 107... wow ! i wish you cld show charts showin that ...what would cause that ?
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Wazua
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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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