Things are getting tough year. Doesn't look like there is a turn around plan afoot. KQ needs to go back to basics, cut the non profitable routes, return non profitable planes or idle planes, reduce work force and other overheads and focus on repaying debt down. Once cash flow positive they can begin to make strategic moves. Fixing KQ in its current state and size is a near impossible task.

This blogpost from 2012 was on the money! http://coldtusker.blogsp...d&utm_medium=twitter

"Question to potential 'new' shareholders. If KQ's Board of Directors can do this to existing shareholders today, how sure can you be the same will not be done to you in 3 years?"

Yes, it came to pass. The existing shareholders (post-Rights) will be massively diluted as the 'new' GoK cash is converted into shares.

@Obiero - On Wednesday, you stated that come what may, you cannot accept anything below 12/= on your KQ shares. Next morning you are selling at 4.50/=

You really need to reevaluate your source of "inside information".

Link: @Obiero not accepting anything below Kshs. 12/= on KQ shares - see post #4917

I have tried to expose this conman and his ways. If there are still some who believe him... Washindwe.

Ati, what? People pay money for this sort of shit?

But why does your mother trust me with extreme sensitive areas. I am a noble man

20.11.2014 a gentleman disclaimer was issued

waaaah

@Maka, the route downsizing has not been done, it is rather evident. This is the elephant in the room and it is the bitter pill to be swallowed before the patient can be moved to HDU and hopefully the General Ward. I am yet to run the exact numbers but this is the general theme. Let us retrace where the roof started cracking. Back in 2004 - 2006 KQ was running a very profitable and near optimally resourced airline. Load factors were among the best in global aviation space. What did Tito and team do? They went on a route opening spree opening up new routes in remote places in Africa whose result was to go into cities whose aviation routes were not developed and would require long lead times. Nothing wrong with that but it is the pace of doing it. One can't have 30% of new routes that have long lead times opened up in 2 years. If you are expanding into big cities where the economies are large enough, passenger volumes and airport infra support viable business cases then you only have to deal with competition to make money. What happens when you go to economies emerging from decades of war, ravaged by political instability, limited commerce and challenged airport infra? you end up having to wait for eons to make money or worse you never make money over the next 10-20 years because the routes don't make commercial sense and perhaps that is the reason why nobody flies there. I believe this is what KQ needs to trail its eyes on.

KQ has many of these routes to West Africa, what has happened is that the cash holes have drained the good routes and challenged the resources and quality of product on the profitable routes (OTP, price flexibility and Equipment quality) to the extent the profitable routes were since invaded by competition while KQ was opening up Africa its share severely dented. Classic examples are; Nairobi - Lagos, Nairobi - Lusaka, Nairobi - Dubai, Nairobi - Accra, Nairobi - London, Nairobi - Bangkok etc.

The Western Africa routes I believe had very weak business cases supporting them and closing down non profitable ones is the initial step in getting KQ back on recovery. The routes have ended up messing KQ's aircraft architecture, where KQ would use large B777s and optimize on scale while making shitloads of cash, they now ended up having to rely on Embraers which are limited in cargo haulage and economies of scale. Plus if you are landing in Lagos daily with an Embraer or an enroute 737-800 when you used to land daily with a 777, iko shida.

Until KQ retraces it's business model fixing the business as is, will be very expensive and inefficient.

In 2012 I predicted KQ would be a government baill off case by 2015, my fear is if they don't shrink, the airline my to be broken up into what GoK requires to have as a minimum for strategic reasons which they can support and what must the other airline but that must be let to die. Tz and Uganda already let their national carriers die natural deaths it's not unthinkable.