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Estimated 71 Billion Barrels...
Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2009 Posts: 362
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hisah wrote:shocks wrote:Seems this week we will see some major news out of the mbawa drilling. The million dollar question is ÏS IT GOOD OR BAD NEWS?" http//www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Possible+oil+find+at+Mbawa+well/-/2558/1500268/-/6ox7rw/-/index.html http//www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1264728.ece Crossing my fingers. But why is it only Pan-continental that has suspended share trade, why not tullow or apache?   Share suspension is bullish. Cheers everyone, my finger crossing worked! finally a gas elephant in our backyard. compare the net pay with the proven reserves of mozambique, we have 52m, they have 55m and the drilling has not yet reached the planned depth-:)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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10 Sep 2012
Mbawa-1 Drilling Update
Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) announces that the Mbawa-1
exploration well in the L8 licence area, offshore Kenya, has
encountered gas in the shallowest objective.
The Mbawa-1 exploration well has been drilled to a depth
of 2,553 metres and has encountered approximately 52
metres of net gas pay in porous Cretaceous sandstones.
The well will now be drilled to a total depth of 3,275
metres targeting further exploration objectives.
Apache (50%) is Operator of the offshore Block L8 Licence
along with partners Origin Energy (20%), Pancontinental
(15%) and Tullow (15%).
Commenting today, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director,
said:
"A gas discovery on prognosis in the shallowest objective
at Mbawa-1 is an encouraging start to our East African
Transform Margin exploration campaign. This is the first
hydrocarbon discovery offshore Kenya. The on-going
drilling remains on course to test for any deeper oil
potential within this gas prone region”.
Download
Press release
(PDF 4.65 MB)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Or I should have said ''All Eyes On EAC'', with integration in mind. Rope in Ethiopia, SS as well. In future DRC... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/11/2008 Posts: 2,306
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Interesting analysis hereGreat men are not always wise, neither do the aged understand judgement...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Robinhood wrote:Interesting analysis here Quote:First of Many – Kenya Re-Rated
We now assume that 25 trillion cubic feet of gas will ultimately be discovered across PCL’s 4 permits offshore Kenya (L6, L8, L10A, L10B). Our estimated chance of success has increased from an average of <10% to ~40% (50% for L8 – 30% for L6, L10A, L10B). Using these estimates results in a risked valuation for the Kenyan acreage of 73.5cps, with upside potential of 275cps.
Remember Cove? Time for Smart Money to Move In
It is interconnected. One needs to play it as EA and not a specific country in order to get better investment returns.
Soon SS will come on line, then Ethiopia then finally Somaliland...
Happy hunting  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:Robinhood wrote:Interesting analysis here Quote:First of Many – Kenya Re-Rated
We now assume that 25 trillion cubic feet of gas will ultimately be discovered across PCL’s 4 permits offshore Kenya (L6, L8, L10A, L10B). Our estimated chance of success has increased from an average of <10% to ~40% (50% for L8 – 30% for L6, L10A, L10B). Using these estimates results in a risked valuation for the Kenyan acreage of 73.5cps, with upside potential of 275cps.
Remember Cove? Time for Smart Money to Move In
It is interconnected. One needs to play it as EA and not a specific country in order to get better investment returns.
Soon SS will come on line, then Ethiopia then finally Somaliland...
Happy hunting SS is already on...they were invited to the crisis meeting on DRC in Kampala. As for Ethiopia, it all depends with the leadership. Somalia- AOI struck water...and alot of it, however, there is a possibility of oil near Mandera. This is Ea's moment "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/11/2006 Posts: 896
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Robinhood wrote:Interesting analysis here Quote:First of Many – Kenya Re-Rated
We now assume that 25 trillion cubic feet of gas will ultimately be discovered across PCL’s 4 permits offshore Kenya (L6, L8, L10A, L10B). Our estimated chance of success has increased from an average of <10% to ~40% (50% for L8 – 30% for L6, L10A, L10B). Using these estimates results in a risked valuation for the Kenyan acreage of 73.5cps, with upside potential of 275cps.
Remember Cove? Time for Smart Money to Move In
It is interconnected. One needs to play it as EA and not a specific country in order to get better investment returns.
Soon SS will come on line, then Ethiopia then finally Somaliland...
Happy hunting SS is already on...they were invited to the crisis meeting on DRC in Kampala. As for Ethiopia, it all depends with the leadership. Somalia- AOI struck water...and alot of it, however, there is a possibility of oil near Mandera. This is Ea's moment water is life, oil is money. Life, or the money “Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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The money and economic pieces start to shape up.... The discovery along Africa's east coast of the world's biggest gas finds in a decade threatens to undo investment plans on the other side of the Indian Ocean. Royal Dutch Shell, BG Group of the UK and France's Total may scale back projects to build liquefied natural gas export plants in Australia and switch to Tanzania and Mozambique, where the new prospects lie and will cost about half as much, according to Jefferies International. “East Africa has got potential to be a bigger LNG supplier than for example Australia or Qatar on a much lower cost base,” said Barry Rushworth, the CEO at Australia's Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL, which is drilling now a well off Kenya. “People are just not actually realizing how much potential East Africa has yet.” Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/bu...25428.html#ixzz26ALk6YyF
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Gas not commercially viable  "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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Says kiraitu but gas and oil are brothers will soon get the other brother. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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murchr wrote:Gas not commercially viable That was fast! It was nice while it lasted though. A new well will be drilled in 2013 http://news.yahoo.com/ke...122514039--finance.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Am not buying this story, The "investigation is still continuing" says much. Quote:Apache will spend the next year interpreting the data from Mbawa to determine if the gas was dry or the result of an oil formation. It will then drill a second well in the L8 block at the end of 2013. Time will tell tho "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2009 Posts: 362
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I'm with you on that. murchr wrote:Am not buying this story, The "investigation is still continuing" says much. Quote:Apache will spend the next year interpreting the data from Mbawa to determine if the gas was dry or the result of an oil formation. It will then drill a second well in the L8 block at the end of 2013. Time will tell tho Monday their report was upbeat, tuesday its bad again? it like they are playing a game, considering pancontinental shares shot 70% after the announcement, did someone at pancontinental want to dump his stock at a good price fully aware the well is not commercially viable?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The intent was attention. Goal achieved. Then the commercial announcements next year... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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If Citigroup is right, Saudi Arabia will cease to be an oil exporter by 2030, far sooner than previously thought. A 150-page report by Heidy Rehman on the Saudi petrochemical industry should be sober reading for those who think that shale oil and gas have solved our global energy crunch. • Saudi Arabia Could be an Oil Importer by ~2030 — Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer (11.1mbpd) & exporter (7.7mbpd). It also consumes 25% of its production. Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrial nations. Oil & its derivatives account for ~50% of Saudi’s electricity production, used mostly (>50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by ~8%/yr. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030. • It Already Consumes All Its Gas Production — Saudi Arabia produces 9.6bn ft3/day of natural gas. This is entirely consumed domestically. It is looking to raise gas production to 15.5bn ft3/day by 2015E, implying a 2011-15E CAGR of 12.7%. However, peak power demand is growing at almost 8% pa. We believe Saudi Arabia will need to find new sources to meet residential & industrial demand. http://blogs.telegraph.c...audi-oil-well-dries-up/
Haiya! Kwani they want to leave us with all the 'responsibilty'?. 2030 they say. Ominous? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/11/2008 Posts: 2,306
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:If Citigroup is right, Saudi Arabia will cease to be an oil exporter by 2030, far sooner than previously thought. A 150-page report by Heidy Rehman on the Saudi petrochemical industry should be sober reading for those who think that shale oil and gas have solved our global energy crunch. • Saudi Arabia Could be an Oil Importer by ~2030 — Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer (11.1mbpd) & exporter (7.7mbpd). It also consumes 25% of its production. Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrial nations. Oil & its derivatives account for ~50% of Saudi’s electricity production, used mostly (>50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by ~8%/yr. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030. • It Already Consumes All Its Gas Production — Saudi Arabia produces 9.6bn ft3/day of natural gas. This is entirely consumed domestically. It is looking to raise gas production to 15.5bn ft3/day by 2015E, implying a 2011-15E CAGR of 12.7%. However, peak power demand is growing at almost 8% pa. We believe Saudi Arabia will need to find new sources to meet residential & industrial demand. http://blogs.telegraph.c...audi-oil-well-dries-up/
Haiya! Kwani they want to leave us with all the 'responsibilty'?. 2030 they say. Ominous? It will be quite a pain for them to live in the desert. They never bothered to diversify Great men are not always wise, neither do the aged understand judgement...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Let us keep in mind that 1. The L8 partners did not have the same results for their pre drilling estimates ie the seismic results, Pan con had an estimate of 4.9 BBO and 552b cubic feet of gas. Their gas estimate was below threshold to what Apache would ideally call commercially viable. Apache on the other hand, was estimating a 200-300MBO. 2. Mbawa (L8) is large so their is a possibility that they drilled at the wrong spot. Remember the first well that was drilled in Block 10BB (Loperot well) was also not very promising - shell got 13M net pay - it was abandoned in 1992, yet the Ngamia 1 well returned a reading of over 100M. 3. A thing to note is that oil slicks were observed at the floor of the ocean, so L8 has a very high chance of returning a oil play and may be gas. I would like to hear what Tullow's observations are. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Pancontinental is down 47 percent GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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murchr wrote:
2. Mbawa (L8) is large so their is a possibility that they drilled at the wrong spot. Remember the first well that was drilled in Block 10BB (Loperot well) was also not very promising - shell got 13M net pay - it was abandoned in 1992, yet the Ngamia 1 well returned a reading of over 100M.
Thats the same thing I was thinking, kwanza this is offshore oil!!! So tununue ama tungoje ishuke even more, cant believe just Monday it was up 107% na sasa imerudi price ya Monday, si hii ni mchezo??
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/27/2010 Posts: 324 Location: nrb
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cma ya huko ni kama ya kenya? ama itachukua action.
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