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hisah
#4741 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 4:29:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
A chronology on the possibility of Deutsche Bank being the next Lehman debacle. Explains why Germany has been treating Greece with kid gloves and the non-default shenanigans. Implausible derivatives to Germany GDP ratio thrown in for good measure.

Top billing for the hiring of former Lehman fixed income honcho.

http://notquant.com/is-d...e-bank-the-next-lehman/

Deutsche bank Glencore headlines coming soon and market turmoil...


http://www.bloomberg.com...er-market-amid-pullback

Deutsche Bank and credit suisse axed as Belgian primary dealers.


http://www.bloomberg.com...capacity-of-1-1-billion

Deutsche bank issuing a couple of rebuttals on its balance sheet position. Add the fact that they have openly decried negative rates by the ECB and BoJ...that lehmann scenario is playing out almost to perfection.

Credit Suisse is quickly following the same path. Turmoil.

Schaeuble says he has no concerns over Deutsche Bank.

When govt officials say don't panic, it's time to PANIC!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4742 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 4:40:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero

Quote:
A rush to “safe-haven assets” has sent the interest rate on Japanese 10-year bonds plummeting below zero, the first time in the history of government debt that the yield on a G7 country’s 10-year bonds has been negative.

The interest rate on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) touched minus 0.01% in trading on Tuesday.


The race to the bottom is about to go parabolic. When we get out of this global devaluation storm the turmoil will be epic.

The last man standing will be the USD. And in order to reset the excruciating debt pain this strong USD will have caused to the humogous govt debts a new reserve currency will have to be coined.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4743 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2016 11:43:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
FTSE,DAX,DOW,USDJPY ALL SERIOUSLY TANKING ATM!!!!
@SufficientlyP
Aguytrying
#4744 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2016 1:51:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
A chronology on the possibility of Deutsche Bank being the next Lehman debacle. Explains why Germany has been treating Greece with kid gloves and the non-default shenanigans. Implausible derivatives to Germany GDP ratio thrown in for good measure.

Top billing for the hiring of former Lehman fixed income honcho.

http://notquant.com/is-d...e-bank-the-next-lehman/

Deutsche bank Glencore headlines coming soon and market turmoil...


http://www.bloomberg.com...er-market-amid-pullback

Deutsche Bank and credit suisse axed as Belgian primary dealers.


http://www.bloomberg.com...capacity-of-1-1-billion

Deutsche bank issuing a couple of rebuttals on its balance sheet position. Add the fact that they have openly decried negative rates by the ECB and BoJ...that lehmann scenario is playing out almost to perfection.

Credit Suisse is quickly following the same path. Turmoil.

Schaeuble says he has no concerns over Deutsche Bank.

When govt officials say don't panic, it's time to PANIC!


Our gaamemt has also issued a Re assurance that the economy is stable, macro economics will be stable this year . Yet no one has said the contrary.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
murchr
#4745 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2016 5:39:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,979
Its going to be another day in the red, with this kind of news coming from China

Reuters wrote:
Japan's economy shrank more than expected in the final quarter of last year as consumer spending and exports slumped, adding to headaches for policymakers already wary of damage the financial market rout could inflict on a fragile recovery.

Gross domestic product contracted by an annualized 1.4 percent in October-December, bigger than a market forecast for a 1.2 percent decline and matching a fall marked in the second quarter of last year, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday. It followed a revised 1.3 percent increase in the previous quarter..........
............................................................................................................
With his stimulus policies that gave big manufacturers windfall profits, Abe had hoped to generate a positive cycle in which companies raise wages and help boost household spending.

Instead the data showed that private consumption, which makes up 60 percent of GDP, fell 0.8 percent, exceeding market forecasts of a 0.6 percent decline.

Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara told reporters after the data was issued that the economy would head for a moderate recovery as its fundamentals remained strong.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#4746 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2016 8:41:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,647
Location: NAIROBI
The economic problems Japan is facing is due to lack of young people and an aging population.
Emphasis should be put in trying to raise the birth rate from 1.1 child per family to about 2.0.
That will produce a huge mkt for its products hence boosting domestic and private consumption
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
lochaz-index
#4747 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2016 11:24:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
murchr wrote:
Its going to be another day in the red, with this kind of news coming from China

Reuters wrote:
Japan's economy shrank more than expected in the final quarter of last year as consumer spending and exports slumped, adding to headaches for policymakers already wary of damage the financial market rout could inflict on a fragile recovery.

Gross domestic product contracted by an annualized 1.4 percent in October-December, bigger than a market forecast for a 1.2 percent decline and matching a fall marked in the second quarter of last year, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday. It followed a revised 1.3 percent increase in the previous quarter..........
............................................................................................................
With his stimulus policies that gave big manufacturers windfall profits, Abe had hoped to generate a positive cycle in which companies raise wages and help boost household spending.

Instead the data showed that private consumption, which makes up 60 percent of GDP, fell 0.8 percent, exceeding market forecasts of a 0.6 percent decline.

Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara told reporters after the data was issued that the economy would head for a moderate recovery as its fundamentals remained strong.

South Korea is a very reliable bellwether state as far as the world's economy is concerned. Once it's trade/economic metrics start pointing south, you know it's time to sit up and pay attention. Mid last year was the watershed moment for this particular economic cycle...everything has been tanking ever since.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Cde Monomotapa
#4748 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2016 1:40:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
What's Real in the trenches & outlook. Great quip!

Quote:
“We are very bearish for the first half of the year,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Dudley said at the IP Week conference in London Wednesday. “In the second half, every tank and swimming pool in the world is going to fill and fundamentals are going to kick in. The market will start balancing in the second half of this year.”
http://www.bloomberg.com...ge-tanks-are-filling-up


alutacontinua
#4749 Posted : Friday, February 19, 2016 7:36:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...feed-article-title-share
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
lochaz-index
#4750 Posted : Saturday, February 20, 2016 8:35:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
[quote=alutacontinua]Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...eed-article-title-share[/quote]
CB's will go absolutely nuts when formulating policies to tame deflation. At this point, it's safe to say that QE4 will be an epic fail when it is launched.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Cde Monomotapa
#4751 Posted : Sunday, February 21, 2016 9:07:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=alutacontinua]Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...eed-article-title-share[/quote]
CB's will go absolutely nuts when formulating policies to tame deflation. At this point, it's safe to say that QE4 will be an epic fail when it is launched.


Interesting.

Quote:

What Will MP3 Look Like?


While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers.


Policy attempts so far have seen recycling back into fin. systems. OK. Now we have low energy (oil) prices making the reflation trickier. OK.

Is the writer suggesting a global welfare state of direct cash transfers? In the event, what would deter deleveraging since it is at a wider scale including those in gainful employment? Universal shopping vouchers perhaps? Interesting.

At what point will there be more money chasing after fewer goods? What measures will be there to curb, worse, unwind hyperinflation?

Interesting. All gold & OEs.
iris
#4752 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2016 8:40:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa
#4753 Posted : Monday, February 22, 2016 9:16:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
iris wrote:


Indeed, certainly the trick:
Quote:
“China is the easy scapegoat, but seriously if anyone is surprised about China’s growth slow-down and its needs to buy time for changing its economic mix-up, they need their school money back.”


In that span of time there will still be the question of who has the policy space to create M3 for (global) investment & consumption? China with a CRR of 17% or CBs at zero to -ve rates?

Also, other solutions for creating that Real demand pull remain as follows:

Cabinet gives the nod for Special Economic Zone construction in Mombasa http://www.businessdaily...06/-/qc4pal/-/index.html
lochaz-index
#4754 Posted : Tuesday, February 23, 2016 1:52:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=alutacontinua]Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...eed-article-title-share[/quote]
CB's will go absolutely nuts when formulating policies to tame deflation. At this point, it's safe to say that QE4 will be an epic fail when it is launched.


Interesting.

Quote:

What Will MP3 Look Like?


While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers.


Policy attempts so far have seen recycling back into fin. systems. OK. Now we have low energy (oil) prices making the reflation trickier. OK.

Is the writer suggesting a global welfare state of direct cash transfers? In the event, what would deter deleveraging since it is at a wider scale including those in gainful employment? Universal shopping vouchers perhaps? Interesting.

At what point will there be more money chasing after fewer goods? What measures will be there to curb, worse, unwind hyperinflation?

Interesting. All gold & OEs.

Deflation is a reality and monetary solutions will not aid to avert it. Direct cash transfers have been initiated in Sweden( if my memory serves me right) with dismal results...inflation is well below the "ideal" 2%. A recently deceptive strong euro is certainly not helping the reflation cause.

The sooner they abandon these monetary experiments the sooner the structural issues can be dealt with.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Cde Monomotapa
#4755 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 9:05:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
lochaz-index wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
[quote=alutacontinua]Interesting take by Ray Dalio on what the future of Monetary Policy is likely to be by Central Banks

https://www.linkedin.com...eed-article-title-share[/quote]
CB's will go absolutely nuts when formulating policies to tame deflation. At this point, it's safe to say that QE4 will be an epic fail when it is launched.


Interesting.

Quote:

What Will MP3 Look Like?


While negative interest rates will make cash a bit less attractive (but not much), it won’t drive investors/savers to buy the sort of assets that will finance spending. And while QE will push asset prices somewhat higher, investors/savers will still want to save, lenders will still be cautious lenders, and cautious borrowers will remain cautious, so we will still have “pushing on a string.” As a result, Monetary Policy 3 will have to be directed at spenders more than at investors/savers.


Policy attempts so far have seen recycling back into fin. systems. OK. Now we have low energy (oil) prices making the reflation trickier. OK.

Is the writer suggesting a global welfare state of direct cash transfers? In the event, what would deter deleveraging since it is at a wider scale including those in gainful employment? Universal shopping vouchers perhaps? Interesting.

At what point will there be more money chasing after fewer goods? What measures will be there to curb, worse, unwind hyperinflation?

Interesting. All gold & OEs.

Deflation is a reality and monetary solutions will not aid to avert it. Direct cash transfers have been initiated in Sweden( if my memory serves me right) with dismal results...inflation is well below the "ideal" 2%. A recently deceptive strong euro is certainly not helping the reflation cause.

The sooner they abandon these monetary experiments the sooner the structural issues can be dealt with.


The Samurais @BoJ say, 'THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR FURTHER CUTS IN INTEREST RATES' Angel

Sino's soft landing package during (de)Industrial reforms: China to allocate 100 bln Yuan over 2 years for relocation of workers during restructuring - RTRS
hisah
#4756 Posted : Friday, February 26, 2016 2:09:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
World trade value continues to dip to GFC levels.

Deflation sink hole gathering momentum!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4757 Posted : Saturday, February 27, 2016 9:16:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Time to buy gold: Deutsche Bank

By year end gold will have tested $1,000 handle and lower! When bankers preach gold, you run away very fast!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4758 Posted : Monday, February 29, 2016 2:48:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002774631

Japan's population nightmare. Policy makers should concentrate on reflating this rather than the CPI.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4759 Posted : Monday, February 29, 2016 3:45:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0002774631

Japan's population nightmare. Policy makers should concentrate on reflating this rather than the CPI.

Invested population pyramid! They'll be forced to import labour! To import labour the yen must get muscular otherwise the labour won't be available. Strong yen will shutter their export trade while a weak yen will make it hard to import labour they desperately need to revert the public funds pyramid nightmare. Dilemma central. This will be an interesting case study.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4760 Posted : Tuesday, March 01, 2016 4:07:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Shorting BARC has been a nice trade today smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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