Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
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innairobi wrote:We have just a few hours maybe so lets wait. In my view, it is not too hard to tell presidential votes for outstanding counties. If you want to get a feel of the possible turnout for outstanding counties, look at the totals for final Sen/Gov votes that are already out. Barring manipulation, there ought to be no more than 10% disparity between total Sen votes and total county presidential tally. Such disparity could probably be why some of those totals are still stuck in the tallying hall. The question here is whether UK's win will be enough for the runoff. As I said, RAO is trying not to disappoint his base as he feels personally responsible for the loss. He cannot face his people and tell them he has lost again after coming close in 2007. But I fear he is delaying the inevitable and could be setting them up for an implosion. If he wins, I will congratulate the man and his team. For now his champagne should be nowhere near the ice. Buster wrote:innairobi wrote:The main potentially redeeming surprise in this election for CORD is Mombasa county and Kakamega county. But going by the Gov/Sen final results, seems Msa turnout is less than 75% and Njumbiree is likely to get 10-20% of those votes. Kakamega county is at less than 85% turnout and will go RAO but probably not at 90% levels because of Weakleaf. Nairobi has been one of the key surprises so far splitting almost 50-50 contrary to opinion polls. Even CORD's own tallying totals of Kidero's win seem to reflect that.
But with more than 250 ROs at Bomas now, I believe we should know where things are going by evening/tonight.
The surprise is on Jubilee. How many times have we Cord guys said it on Wazua that Western will not vote Mudavadi? Mombasa was always Corded just going by their statements. . Boss add up the totals, no surprises, Kiambu and Nakuru not done. Kakamega will not exceed 300k while Msa will not exceed 300k, Nakuru will post 500k and Kiambu over 600.
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