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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
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obiero
#2191 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 5:30:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,216
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities

KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana
#2192 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 7:27:09 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#2193 Posted : Friday, July 03, 2020 8:02:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,216
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book

KQ ABP 4.26
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obiero
#2194 Posted : Sunday, July 05, 2020 12:34:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,216
Location: nairobi
Kenya Airways
HY Total Income 44.1B
HY Total Operating Costs 54.5B
HY Loss before Income Tax [7.975b]

KQ ABP 4.26
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Ericsson
#2195 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2020 7:31:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways
HY Total Income 44.1B
HY Total Operating Costs 54.5B
HY Loss before Income Tax [7.975b]

Double the figure for HY Loss before Income Tax
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#2196 Posted : Monday, July 06, 2020 7:48:46 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways
HY Total Income 44.1B
HY Total Operating Costs 54.5B
HY Loss before Income Tax [7.975b]

Double the figure for HY Loss before Income Tax
KQ needs to be taken outside and shot. Twice. In the Head. And then cut up in 4 quarters. Which should be shredded. And burnt.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, July 06, 2020 7:51 AM | Reason: Not specified
Ericsson
#2197 Posted : Wednesday, July 08, 2020 8:09:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, July 08, 2020 8:11 PM | Reason: Not specified
heri
#2198 Posted : Tuesday, August 04, 2020 12:40:35 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25


Sounds too good to be true. Higher dividends in view of coming NPLs
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Horton
#2199 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2020 10:37:21 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25


If these estimates are as accurate as they usually are, we are looking at KCB/EQTY back to 40-45 levels
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Angelica _ann
#2200 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2020 2:03:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q2 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 18.2
EQTY 14
COOP 10.2
I&M 6.9
ABSA 6.2
SCBK 6.1
DTB 5.8
NCBA 4.8
STANB 4.2
HFCK 0.042
@Obiero is usually on the ball so Q2 seems very similar to Q1 i.e. Q1 x 2 = Q2

This is the quarter with full effect of COVID-19.

Essential service sector, never closed even a single day.. Only reduced 1 working hour. Covid19 restructuring on corporate book total KES 712B means almost nil NPL impact.. Consumer loan book only slightly hit due to layoffs by some private firms, while GoK employees form bulk of bank check off facilities
3Q and 4Q will be better indicators. Real losses (vs ECL) will start crystalizing over the next 12 months.

Yes. Q3 will be the truth post 90 days unpaid arrears for consumer book


Plus those paying interim dividends will retain the norm.
KCB may hike to 1.25


If these estimates are as accurate as they usually are, we are looking at KCB/EQTY back to 40-45 levels


Based on falling prices in other sectors, market will be unmoved. Expect lower prices.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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