Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:Its not only peace alone according to me i think a uhuru win will first weaken the shilling to past 100 and slow the market due to fears of international community reactions. Why the clamour on holding the USD and not any other currency e.g. Pound, yen, euro, swiss etc?
Too much fear, too much USD buy recos, too much one sided sentiment, not a good trade.
For forex to make sense, inflation needs to spike, tbills need to move above CBR, oil needs to spike, food prices need to spike.
So far brent is ard $117/bb, not good & hope it doesn't spike about $125. Tbills are slightly edging up, food prices are stable. The CA of treasury is still not looking good and a huge oil price spike could easily mess things. But CBK learned well as 2011 KES nosedive shook them to soberness - liquidity & forex controls everywhere.
If UK does take the reigns, why would their be econ sanctions? Hydrocarbons are yet to go commercial, nobody benefits from the EA pie - this is not only a KE play! Based on this fact, I don't see any event risk for a UK win. Just some deck shifting to align to the new reality! Money has no allegiance nor morals nor a soul!
IMHO the only major event risk is chaos like PEV.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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