Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q1 2020, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 9.2
EQTY 7.8
COOP 5.2
I&M 3.6
NCBA 3.3
SCBK 3.1
ABSA 3.0
DTB 2.8
STANB 1.9 Actual 2.1
HFCK -0.034
Equity, SCBK and Stanbic fairing worse off than the others.. HF should be bought out, preferably by COOP

So only KCB is forecasted to increase from 8.5 and equity is down from 8.8.

With 21 extra curfew days, Q2 just got decimated

Moody’s adds, the outlook for the lenders has changed from stable to negative due to the substantial government bond holdings — at between 1.3 and two times their shareholders’ equity — which links their creditworthiness to that of the government.

“The negative outlook reflects primarily the banks’ sizeable holding of sovereign debt securities at between 1.3-2.0 times their shareholders’ equity, which links their creditworthiness to that of the government,” said the update.

“All three banks’ local-currency deposit ratings of B2 are at the same rating level of the government, and a potential weakening in the government’s credit profile will lead to a weaker credit profile for the banks.”

Between January and December 2019, Equity raised its government securities holdings from Sh161 billion to Sh172.1 billion, KCB’s holdings went up from Sh109.9 billion to Sh153.9 billion while Co-operative Bank rose from Sh80.3 billion to Sh117.8 billion.

Tourism and hospitality industry.
Mombasa is pumping up the COVID-19 numbers