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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
obiero
#2131 Posted : Saturday, March 28, 2020 5:55:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Monk wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Forecast for FY 2019, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 36.9 Actual 36.9
EQTY 33.1 Actual 31.4
COOP 20.6 Actual 20.7
NCBA 15.1 Actual 11.17 (13.3 before exceptional item)
I&M 12.4 Actual 14.6
SCBK 12.3 Actual 12.2
ABSA 12.2 Actual 10.75 (12.3 before one-off charges)
DTB 11.6 Actual 11.3
STANB 8.2 Actual 7.7
HFCK 0.047


How the mighty Barclays and SCB have fallen!


But they give better dividends.
Stanchart is position 3 and Barclays 4 in dividend rankings among the listed banks

Higher dividend yield with lower profitability. Very odd management


There are worse management styles eg giving out profits as bonus to staff members at the expense of shareholders, or finding other ways to squander revenues like KQ has been doing for years, leaving shareholders with negative equity. I didn't even get to Merali, Wamae, and GOK. To each his own...I prefer the BAT, SCBK and BBK Div payment policy.
Applause Applause Applause

Wewe mzee ukiona KQ ikitajwa utaclap tu

KQ ABP 4.26
VituVingiSana
#2132 Posted : Saturday, March 28, 2020 8:23:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Monk wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Forecast for FY 2019, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 36.9 Actual 36.9
EQTY 33.1 Actual 31.4
COOP 20.6 Actual 20.7
NCBA 15.1 Actual 11.17 (13.3 before exceptional item)
I&M 12.4 Actual 14.6
SCBK 12.3 Actual 12.2
ABSA 12.2 Actual 10.75 (12.3 before one-off charges)
DTB 11.6 Actual 11.3
STANB 8.2 Actual 7.7
HFCK 0.047


How the mighty Barclays and SCB have fallen!


But they give better dividends.
Stanchart is position 3 and Barclays 4 in dividend rankings among the listed banks

Higher dividend yield with lower profitability. Very odd management


There are worse management styles eg giving out profits as bonus to staff members at the expense of shareholders, or finding other ways to squander revenues like KQ has been doing for years, leaving shareholders with negative equity. I didn't even get to Merali, Wamae, and GOK. To each his own...I prefer the BAT, SCBK and BBK Div payment policy.
Applause Applause Applause

Wewe mzee ukiona KQ ikitajwa utaclap tu
I actually feel for KQ. This is not a KQ thread.
I am Applause the dividend policies (high payout ratio when they aren't expanding) of BAT, SCBK and BBK vs I&M, DTB and KenRe. I have a few BAT & SCBK and those dividends are welcome when others are being stingy.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Angelica _ann
#2133 Posted : Saturday, March 28, 2020 8:36:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Monk wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Forecast for FY 2019, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 36.9 Actual 36.9
EQTY 33.1 Actual 31.4
COOP 20.6 Actual 20.7
NCBA 15.1 Actual 11.17 (13.3 before exceptional item)
I&M 12.4 Actual 14.6
SCBK 12.3 Actual 12.2
ABSA 12.2 Actual 10.75 (12.3 before one-off charges)
DTB 11.6 Actual 11.3
STANB 8.2 Actual 7.7
HFCK 0.047


How the mighty Barclays and SCB have fallen!


But they give better dividends.
Stanchart is position 3 and Barclays 4 in dividend rankings among the listed banks

Higher dividend yield with lower profitability. Very odd management


There are worse management styles eg giving out profits as bonus to staff members at the expense of shareholders, or finding other ways to squander revenues like KQ has been doing for years, leaving shareholders with negative equity. I didn't even get to Merali, Wamae, and GOK. To each his own...I prefer the BAT, SCBK and BBK Div payment policy.
Applause Applause Applause

Wewe mzee ukiona KQ ikitajwa utaclap tu
I actually feel for KQ. This is not a KQ thread.
I am Applause the dividend policies (high payout ratio when they aren't expanding) of BAT, SCBK and BBK vs I&M, DTB and KenRe. I have a few BAT & SCBK and those dividends are welcome when others are being stingy.


In any case despite the high dividend policy, they still have adequate reserves way better than many at NSE. Tunamumunya dividends year in year out!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
sparkly
#2134 Posted : Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:27:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Monk wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Forecast for FY 2019, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 36.9 Actual 36.9
EQTY 33.1 Actual 31.4
COOP 20.6 Actual 20.7
NCBA 15.1 Actual 11.17 (13.3 before exceptional item)
I&M 12.4 Actual 14.6
SCBK 12.3 Actual 12.2
ABSA 12.2 Actual 10.75 (12.3 before one-off charges)
DTB 11.6 Actual 11.3
STANB 8.2 Actual 7.7
HFCK 0.047


How the mighty Barclays and SCB have fallen!


But they give better dividends.
Stanchart is position 3 and Barclays 4 in dividend rankings among the listed banks

Higher dividend yield with lower profitability. Very odd management


There are worse management styles eg giving out profits as bonus to staff members at the expense of shareholders, or finding other ways to squander revenues like KQ has been doing for years, leaving shareholders with negative equity. I didn't even get to Merali, Wamae, and GOK. To each his own...I prefer the BAT, SCBK and BBK Div payment policy.
Applause Applause Applause

Wewe mzee ukiona KQ ikitajwa utaclap tu
I actually feel for KQ. This is not a KQ thread.
I am Applause the dividend policies (high payout ratio when they aren't expanding) of BAT, SCBK and BBK vs I&M, DTB and KenRe. I have a few BAT & SCBK and those dividends are welcome when others are being stingy.


In any case despite the high dividend policy, they still have adequate reserves way better than many at NSE. Tunamumunya dividends year in year out!!!


The problem is loss of market share in a competitive sector. This means that the high payout is not sustainable. The result is a fall of the price of the stock and a high yield.

A good demonstration is NMG with a dividend yield of 20.66% but over 100% payout. Capital erosion is a reality in view of the loss of print revenues.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#2135 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 2:28:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Monk wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Forecast for FY 2019, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 36.9 Actual 36.9
EQTY 33.1 Actual 31.4
COOP 20.6 Actual 20.7
NCBA 15.1 Actual 11.17 (13.3 before exceptional item)
I&M 12.4 Actual 14.6
SCBK 12.3 Actual 12.2
ABSA 12.2 Actual 10.75 (12.3 before one-off charges)
DTB 11.6 Actual 11.3
STANB 8.2 Actual 7.7
HFCK 0.047


How the mighty Barclays and SCB have fallen!


But they give better dividends.
Stanchart is position 3 and Barclays 4 in dividend rankings among the listed banks

Higher dividend yield with lower profitability. Very odd management


There are worse management styles eg giving out profits as bonus to staff members at the expense of shareholders, or finding other ways to squander revenues like KQ has been doing for years, leaving shareholders with negative equity. I didn't even get to Merali, Wamae, and GOK. To each his own...I prefer the BAT, SCBK and BBK Div payment policy.
Applause Applause Applause

Wewe mzee ukiona KQ ikitajwa utaclap tu
I actually feel for KQ. This is not a KQ thread.
I am Applause the dividend policies (high payout ratio when they aren't expanding) of BAT, SCBK and BBK vs I&M, DTB and KenRe. I have a few BAT & SCBK and those dividends are welcome when others are being stingy.


In any case despite the high dividend policy, they still have adequate reserves way better than many at NSE. Tunamumunya dividends year in year out!!!


The problem is loss of market share in a competitive sector. This means that the high payout is not sustainable. The result is a fall of the price of the stock and a high yield.

A good demonstration is NMG with a dividend yield of 20.66% but over 100% payout. Capital erosion is a reality in view of the loss of print revenues.

1) What loss of market share is BAT suffering from?
2) BAT and SCBK's DY is based on current (FY2019) dividends. NMG's is based on FY2018. Apples to Oranges.
3) NMG Newspapers is in a dying industry almost all over the world. Even Warren Buffett tossed up his hands and sold his newspaper business.
Whereas the number of smokers is reducing as a % of the population, cigarettes cannot be pdf'd and shared via WhatsApp.
SCBK and ABSA need to up their game but their size isn't shrinking though the market share has. Not all firms need/want to grow.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#2136 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 6:59:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Monk wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Forecast for FY 2019, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 36.9 Actual 36.9
EQTY 33.1 Actual 31.4
COOP 20.6 Actual 20.7
NCBA 15.1 Actual 11.17 (13.3 before exceptional item)
I&M 12.4 Actual 14.6
SCBK 12.3 Actual 12.2
ABSA 12.2 Actual 10.75 (12.3 before one-off charges)
DTB 11.6 Actual 11.3
STANB 8.2 Actual 7.7
HFCK 0.047


How the mighty Barclays and SCB have fallen!


But they give better dividends.
Stanchart is position 3 and Barclays 4 in dividend rankings among the listed banks

Higher dividend yield with lower profitability. Very odd management


There are worse management styles eg giving out profits as bonus to staff members at the expense of shareholders, or finding other ways to squander revenues like KQ has been doing for years, leaving shareholders with negative equity. I didn't even get to Merali, Wamae, and GOK. To each his own...I prefer the BAT, SCBK and BBK Div payment policy.
Applause Applause Applause

Wewe mzee ukiona KQ ikitajwa utaclap tu
I actually feel for KQ. This is not a KQ thread.
I am Applause the dividend policies (high payout ratio when they aren't expanding) of BAT, SCBK and BBK vs I&M, DTB and KenRe. I have a few BAT & SCBK and those dividends are welcome when others are being stingy.


In any case despite the high dividend policy, they still have adequate reserves way better than many at NSE. Tunamumunya dividends year in year out!!!


The problem is loss of market share in a competitive sector. This means that the high payout is not sustainable. The result is a fall of the price of the stock and a high yield.

A good demonstration is NMG with a dividend yield of 20.66% but over 100% payout. Capital erosion is a reality in view of the loss of print revenues.

1) What loss of market share is BAT suffering from?
2) BAT and SCBK's DY is based on current (FY2019) dividends. NMG's is based on FY2018. Apples to Oranges.
3) NMG Newspapers is in a dying industry almost all over the world. Even Warren Buffett tossed up his hands and sold his newspaper business.
Whereas the number of smokers is reducing as a % of the population, cigarettes cannot be pdf'd and shared via WhatsApp.
SCBK and ABSA need to up their game but their size isn't shrinking though the market share has. Not all firms need/want to grow.

Absurd for one to say not all firms need to grow.. Loss of marker share is shrinkage! Wewe umetoka wapi mzee

KQ ABP 4.26
VituVingiSana
#2137 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 7:59:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

@Obiero - Growth of market share is not important for all firms. What's important is profitability.

A steady but PROFITABLE market share beats a loss-making but growing market share unless the end-game is enhanced profitability. Growing market share comes with risks.

Some firms may even lose market share but remain very profitable on a RoE or RoI basis.

Does ARM come to mind?
Or KQ?

Anyway, as some of us age, we may want consistent dividends and not growth. smile
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Monk
#2138 Posted : Monday, March 30, 2020 10:03:05 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 272
sparkly wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Monk wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Exchange Bar Forecast for FY 2019, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 36.9 Actual 36.9
EQTY 33.1 Actual 31.4
COOP 20.6 Actual 20.7
NCBA 15.1 Actual 11.17 (13.3 before exceptional item)
I&M 12.4 Actual 14.6
SCBK 12.3 Actual 12.2
ABSA 12.2 Actual 10.75 (12.3 before one-off charges)
DTB 11.6 Actual 11.3
STANB 8.2 Actual 7.7
HFCK 0.047


How the mighty Barclays and SCB have fallen!


But they give better dividends.
Stanchart is position 3 and Barclays 4 in dividend rankings among the listed banks

Higher dividend yield with lower profitability. Very odd management


There are worse management styles eg giving out profits as bonus to staff members at the expense of shareholders, or finding other ways to squander revenues like KQ has been doing for years, leaving shareholders with negative equity. I didn't even get to Merali, Wamae, and GOK. To each his own...I prefer the BAT, SCBK and BBK Div payment policy.
Applause Applause Applause

Wewe mzee ukiona KQ ikitajwa utaclap tu
I actually feel for KQ. This is not a KQ thread.
I am Applause the dividend policies (high payout ratio when they aren't expanding) of BAT, SCBK and BBK vs I&M, DTB and KenRe. I have a few BAT & SCBK and those dividends are welcome when others are being stingy.


In any case despite the high dividend policy, they still have adequate reserves way better than many at NSE. Tunamumunya dividends year in year out!!!


The problem is loss of market share in a competitive sector. This means that the high payout is not sustainable. The result is a fall of the price of the stock and a high yield.

A good demonstration is NMG with a dividend yield of 20.66% but over 100% payout. Capital erosion is a reality in view of the loss of print revenues.


Lose of market share doesn't always mean losses, or reduced profits. Sustainability only becomes an issue if the company goes into loss territory. In any case, I and the company are separate entities. As a minority shareholder, I'm looking for a reasonable return on investment, preferably less than 10 years, and an income. No one knows what shocks will take down the firm tomorrow, and with it your investment. I mitigate this risk by avoiding or minimizing banking on promises.

NMG, as @VVS indicated, was doomed by an industry specific challenge, not its Div payment policy. Print media houses that don't pay dividends are equally affected.
Ericsson
#2139 Posted : Tuesday, March 31, 2020 10:00:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
HFCK always the last has just released it's FY results today
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Angelica _ann
#2140 Posted : Tuesday, March 31, 2020 1:09:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Ericsson wrote:
HFCK always the last has just released it's FY results today


Last day!!!!!smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
267 Pages«<212213214215216>»
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