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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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[quote=lochaz-index]A banking crisis is coming to KE, not even the best efforts by the governor will avert it. Illiquidity is any bank's worst nightmare. If all the means of liquidity provision are failing then there can only be one eventuality...we are yet to see the worst from the banking sector followed by a consolidation thereafter. http://www.businessdaily...24462-avjf3l/index.html[/quote] https://centralbank.go.k...pervision-annual-report
Non-Performing loans in the industry increased by 36% to Ksh. 147B in 2015  You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances. Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge. Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value. Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring. Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk. Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,332 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management.. COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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obiero wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management.. and third, capping of interest rate never sees the light of the day. many banks will find it more difficult to reign on cost after a enjoying lucrative lending rates. that law will be a socker. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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I asked here who is the chairman of KCB and no one understood my question. What are his qualifications? Was his appointment by merit or political, given elections are around the corner and somebody might be looking for Eazzyloan  . Therein lies the answers to Mr.Market's spanking of this stock @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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obiero wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management.. I had the opportunity to go through Kcb's Q1 results...needless to say I was not impressed (I posted my thoughts here but I can't remember which thread) and neither has been Mr market so far. They have been pushing the envelope for quite a while especially on NPL's and this continues to haunt them after HY numbers. A worsening loan book and collaterals is a bad mix. The main threat however lies in a liquidity squeeze. If banks are not able to meet near term withdrawal demands and there is no effective liquidity provision mechanism, this is a ticking time bomb. Another bank collapse will not be taken kindly by the masses...a cascade of bank runs and more collapses. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,332 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:obiero wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management.. I had the opportunity to go through Kcb's Q1 results...needless to say I was not impressed (I posted my thoughts here but I can't remember which thread) and neither has been Mr market so far. They have been pushing the envelope for quite a while especially on NPL's and this continues to haunt them after HY numbers. A worsening loan book and collaterals is a bad mix. The main threat however lies in a liquidity squeeze. If banks are not able to meet near term withdrawal demands and there is no effective liquidity provision mechanism, this is a ticking time bomb. Another bank collapse will not be taken kindly by the masses...a cascade of bank runs and more collapses. @lochaz-index right on the money with your arguments. further the business segment has adopted a wait and see for the interest rate movement plus 2017 approaches, terrible combination for lenders COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Chief You have been a member since:: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,384 Location: Nairobi
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KCB is too big to fail meaning Njoroge will open the flood-gates for KCB. Any withdrawal will be met courtesy of CBK. That doesn't mean the brand and Balance Sheet will not be damaged. If there is a run on KCB which will be met by CBK pumping in liquidity... the brand will suffer. As is, I think KCB's customer service is crap but many parastatals use it as do their suppliers. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,332 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:KCB is too big to fail meaning Njoroge will open the flood-gates for KCB. Any withdrawal will be met courtesy of CBK. That doesn't mean the brand and Balance Sheet will not be damaged.
If there is a run on KCB which will be met by CBK pumping in liquidity... the brand will suffer. As is, I think KCB's customer service is crap but many parastatals use it as do their suppliers. A run on simba? Who has even predicted that? COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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