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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.
Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn
KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.
So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*
Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target? The Shs2.8 billion debt could be after the sale of the TZ congo assets.... Whis would make the EPs calculations higher, so your probably right. Lets stick with EPS of 2.0, remember i mentioned this EPS not too long ago. at least 30.00 per share. The most profitable fuel marketer in kenya, debt free, attractive assets... KK Euphoria is back! This share excites like a buibui & hijab covered girl flashing her knees  I hope this time we, the long suffering KK shareholders will get to eat the fruit. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,328 Location: Masada
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Eti atia? Time for Obiero to hit back VVS? Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,328 Location: Masada
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I HAVE BEEN DEBT FREE. Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:If i was the chairman of the board i would propose a 1 for 20 bonus and 30cts dividend to reward those who stood by me when i was drowning. at close of business today nobody was willing to sell at 10.20  I cant remember the last time we could say that about KK. No supply! its been unheard of for 4 -5 years! BTW this time the bus may have left the station for good, unless the claws of the bear are too strong. Kk share could not gain much for the last 2 years because informed investors were still doubting their recovery plans,this left wanjikus speculating on small gains,now the recovery plan is confirmed lets wait and see Ona!! Imesemekana, kumbe ni kweli.. all ready to raid the company! Maka aka Wakili Bonoko. Uko?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:I don't understand, si there other shares in the market why only these two choices unless your money is already tied in there in which case you have no choices to make but to bind time You know when you get burnt, you look for your friends who are not burning to disturb them Signed: vvs
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:I don't understand, si there other shares in the market why only these two choices unless your money is already tied in there in which case you have no choices to make but to bind time You know when you get burnt, you look for your friends who are not burning to disturb them Signed: vvs MYOB: Cde
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,140 Location: Nairobi
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@Aguy - 30 may be ambitious BUT I will take it I see it as a (potential) takeover target in 2018 after the elections. UG - Elections done RW - 2017 BU - Elections done but... Ethiopia - De Facto One Party state If Ethiopia opens up a little by 2018 then that's additional value. If KK can get paid by settlement or cash by KPC & KPRL. Icing. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Quote:@CDE. so would you rather a stock that stagnates over a 4 year period (KK). Or a stock that loses >80% of its value (KQ 50 - 4.50) Vvs has answered that extensively that his foresight is forever shattered!! KK. Moves synonymous to how Berkshire moved stealthily out of textile or just an asset flipper like SCBK. Let's see the results. Remember, buy low, sell high 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - 30 may be ambitious BUT I will take it I see it as a (potential) takeover target in 2018 after the elections. UG - Elections done RW - 2017 BU - Elections done but... Ethiopia - De Facto One Party state If Ethiopia opens up a little by 2018 then that's additional value. If KK can get paid by settlement or cash by KPC & KPRL. Icing. any share gaining in a bear must have a silver lining in it,now surely this arbitration money is long overdue let abdinassir stop much talk and conclude it "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,318
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,318
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,140 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - 30 may be ambitious BUT I will take it I see it as a (potential) takeover target in 2018 after the elections. UG - Elections done RW - 2017 BU - Elections done but... Ethiopia - De Facto One Party state If Ethiopia opens up a little by 2018 then that's additional value. If KK can get paid by settlement or cash by KPC & KPRL. Icing. any share gaining in a bear must have a silver lining in it,now surely this arbitration money is long overdue let abdinassir stop much talk and conclude it KPC appealing it in our sloooooow [& corrupt] courts. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.
Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn
KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.
So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*
Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target? The Shs2.8 billion debt could be after the sale of the TZ congo assets.... Whis would make the EPs calculations higher, so your probably right. Lets stick with EPS of 2.0, remember i mentioned this EPS not too long ago. at least 30.00 per share. The most profitable fuel marketer in kenya, debt free, attractive assets... KK Euphoria is back! This share excites like a buibui & hijab covered girl flashing her knees I hope this time we, the long suffering KK shareholders will get to eat the fruit.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,478
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sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@miennyma - No special dividend should be expected. As @Aguy hinted, I think the proceeds will be used to pay down debt. The TZ business was making losses or breaking even at best.
If KK borrows at 15% from banks, it can start saving a lot by paying down the debt used to purchase/maintain the TZ assets. true i have just seen the thing Tanzania is the graveyard of Kenyan companies. What's wrong with that country? Xenophobia in general and fear and dislike of Kenyans specifically!!! Kenyans are way too fast for them. So they have to be kept in check. Instead of increasing your speed, just hand the fast runner a sack of stones to run with!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,478
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@vvs responded in advance. Even mama mboga knows that exiting a loss making market is actually a good thing!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@miennyma - No special dividend should be expected. As @Aguy hinted, I think the proceeds will be used to pay down debt. The TZ business was making losses or breaking even at best.
If KK borrows at 15% from banks, it can start saving a lot by paying down the debt used to purchase/maintain the TZ assets. true i have just seen the thing Tanzania is the graveyard of Kenyan companies. What's wrong with that country? Xenophobia in general and fear and dislike of Kenyans specifically!!! Kenyans are way too fast for them. So they have to be kept in check. Instead of increasing your speed, just hand the fast runner a sack of stones to run with!!! And they will forever remain in the medieval times. They'll never agree to a joint EA trade zone.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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10.50 prints the 52 week high,i expect it to hit 11bob to awaken the first bunch of profit takers,supply is drying fast.new high 10.70  "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/28/2014 Posts: 149 Location: Nairobi
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It's great to be on a bus that is moving... When you live for others' opinions, you are dead.
- Carlos Slim Helu
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:Realtreaty wrote:he Pendulum, still in motion!!!!!! buyers and sellers are in a cold war buyers are giving in to the 10bob reality,Kk is worth 15bob atleast Supply at 10.00 was being mopped up as it came. Im not the optimistic one but i see scope for 11.00 before results. Nevertheless im even surprised were at 10.00. @enyands. You can safely wake up today the VWAP is 10.00 @mlennyma. This way a few days ago when 10 was looking an impossible barrier. We have similar investor eyes The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Aguytrying wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:Realtreaty wrote:he Pendulum, still in motion!!!!!! buyers and sellers are in a cold war buyers are giving in to the 10bob reality,Kk is worth 15bob atleast Supply at 10.00 was being mopped up as it came. Im not the optimistic one but i see scope for 11.00 before results. Nevertheless im even surprised were at 10.00. @enyands. You can safely wake up today the VWAP is 10.00 @mlennyma. This way a few days ago when 10 was looking an impossible barrier. We have similar investor eyes KK enthusiasts is your turn to eat! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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