Horton wrote:Jub has 17m shares of DTB. DTB was at 89.50 as at dec 2009. Right now it's at 135.
135-90= 45
45*17m=765m in fair value gains which will be reflected on P&L.
Divide 765/ 50m shares and u get kshs. 15.1 per share of fair value gains just from DTB. I worked out and thus far, fair value gains on Jub investments are at about 1.2B. Let's be conservative and assume this figure to be 1B and also assume that the share prices move sideways for quoted stocks. Divide by 50m shares and that's 20bob per share. Add 15 bob for their other income(from ops and investment income aka rent, bonds etc) and you are lokking at 35 bob minimum eps.
Horton, I think you are being too optimistic. As you may know it is such high expectations that cause share price to fall when they are not met even when results are VERY good.
Not all fair value gains go to the P&L. Some of them are dealt with through reserves. If you look at the Jubilee 2008 and 2009 annual results, you will note when share prices for their portfolio fell, some of them were dealt with in that way, thus cushioning the Net profits from falling as much as they would have.
I am pegging Jubilee's EPS for 2010 at between 20 - 25. I am yet to work out a more precise figure, but I think it would be wise to temper your expectations.