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9yr CBK Kenya Infrastructure Bond
maka
#11 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 4:53:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
@kyt way low compared to which other investment vehicle,
A 30 year bond in the states is currently yielding a return of 3.72% when we compare this to our longest bond in the market which is the 25 year which is returning a yield of around 9.85% the ROI is good.The problem is if there will be a complete uptake of the bond considering thez bin waning interest in the fixed income side of the capital market.
possunt quia posse videntur
Wa_ithaka
#12 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 5:08:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
It'll get full subscription especially when you factor fund managers internally and externally who like a guaranteed 6%
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
muganda
#13 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 7:52:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Wa_ithaka wrote:
It'll get full subscription especially when you factor fund managers internally and externally who like a guaranteed 6%


Good point; and if I may digress, one wonders how effective fund managers (experts of investments) are if all they do is make such a conservative play when the interest rates are at an all time low.

Which funds do these guys manage? How would one effectively benchmark if a fundmanager is doing stuff when it comes to fixed income instruments? Index...Av coupon rates...TBill rate...d'oh!
Wa_ithaka
#14 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 8:11:12 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Muganda-benchmark I believe is always risk-free interest rate in our case being t-mbills
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
muganda
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 8:26:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Surely NOW, if this risk free infrastructure bond coupon rate is deemed tooo low by Wazuans, yet it's only at 6%...
Why would anyone in their right mind pay a fund manager, and mark his performance par if he only got 1.999%?

There must be another measure! I saw presentation by NSE where they introduce an animal called Average weighted coupon rate payable on bonds at 10.38% for 30-Jun

Check the presentation page 7 http://www.nse.co.ke/new...BY%20PETER%20MWANGI.pdf

Wa_ithaka
#16 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 10:58:52 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Muganda- my take is as an investor going into money/income funds, you have to compare fund perfomance with average highest available money market rates over past 1 year at the very least.

Getting this info in our market is another issue altogether
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
selah
#17 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 12:47:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
I have never participated on any bond but I listened some technocrats on NTV yesterday discuss this bond and I got more confused.and this is why.

The previous bond which had a coupon of 12% was trading at a loss since inflation at that time was 14%.

This bond which has a coupon of 6% is trading at a profit because the inflation is below 4%.

Now if you look at those scenarios the guy who bought last years bond is enjoying more returns currently as opposed to those who will buy the one with the 6% coupon.

Another thing that confused me even more why use a borrowing instrument as a tool to bring down inflation,without first arresting those factors that cause inflation to rise.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
guru267
#18 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 1:06:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
Another thing that confused me even more why use a borrowing instrument as a tool to bring down inflation,without first arresting those factors that cause inflation to rise.

@selah you clearly need to read some more on economic theory....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Scubidu
#19 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 2:22:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@selah. To see the factors that influence inflation in Kenya you'll have to look at certain things such as money supply growth, and balance of payments. The governor said that there's no demand pull inflation in the system so focus more on BOP IMHO.

Judging by the results of the 182 t-bill this bond now requires a better premium. The vibrancy of trade especially on the long end has declined, with increasing interest rate risk, so the bond seems a viable option for most fund managers (for its other qualities). As long CBK avails enough liquidity in the system then they can dictate the level of subscription. I think inflation is a none issue so i focus on the spread between cost of funding and bond rates to see the profit.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
wanyuru
#20 Posted : Friday, August 20, 2010 2:37:24 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/29/2007
Posts: 948
kyt wrote:
at 6 per cent for 9 yrs! That is way low!


A taxable T bond with 10 years to maturity at the NSE is trading at a Yield of 5.5-5.75%.


i think this particular tax free bond, with 10yr taxable bonds trading at the above yields, is at the right coupon.

And BTW, this bond has an amortization structure of 6 , 7 and 9 years which makes its effective tenor to be 7 Yrs!

Those investing upto 1mn can look at it as a 7 Year bond!

.....Just a thought
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