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Effective duration and Convexity of bonds
emlyn ngwiri
#11 Posted : Monday, August 16, 2010 6:50:32 PM
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scooby, the difference is

1. Zero-Coupon Bond(kengen bond) – Duration is equal to its time to maturity.

2.Vanilla Bond(cfc stanbic bank) - Duration will always be less than its time to maturity

so duration need not be the time in years for a bond to mature, it refers to the changes in bond price to changes in yield.

in breif:
Factors 1 and 2: Coupon rate and Term to Maturity
If term to maturity and a bond's initial price remain constant, the higher the coupon, the lower the volatility, and the lower the coupon, the higher the volatility. If the coupon rate and the bond's initial price are constant, the bond with a longer term to maturity will display higher price volatility and a bond with a shorter term to maturity will display lower price volatility.

Therefore, if you would like to invest in a bond with minimal interest rate risk, a bond with high coupon payments and a short term to maturity would be the best. An investor who predicts that interest rates will decline would best potentially take advantage of a bond with low coupon payments and a long term to maturity, since these factors would magnify a bond's price increase,

Factor 3: Yield to Maturity (YTM)
The sensitivity of a bond's price to changes in interest rates also depends on its yield to maturity. A bond with a high yield to maturity will display lower price volatility than a bond with a lower yield to maturity, but a similar coupon rate and term to maturity. Yield to maturity is affected by the bond's credit rating this ofcourse applies in the european and western economies. Therefore, bonds with poor credit ratings typically display lower price volatility than bonds with excellent credit ratings.


Scubidu
#12 Posted : Monday, August 16, 2010 8:29:35 PM
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@scooby. Some of the banks have profited from their bond portfolios appreciating in H1. Should they be worried that rates might turn the corner? Has the rising yield curve on long term paper such as the 15 year paper suggested that buyers anticipate higher interest rate risk in the future? Bond prices with shorter/medium term durations have not seen their prices rise.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#13 Posted : Monday, August 16, 2010 8:32:11 PM
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@emlyn. Is KenGen a zero coupon?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
emlyn ngwiri
#14 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 9:59:08 AM
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sorry guys the kengen bond is not a zero coupon bond.the difference lies in the annualized yields and yield to maturity.
emlyn ngwiri
#15 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 11:20:52 AM
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the cfc senior and subordinated bond implies that the bond interest payments are arranged into tranches or classes-the senior tranch implies that investors are willing to receive interest stable interest with relatively low risk. the subordinated tancch means that investors are willing to invest bearing the high risk levels of the issue.

note that it can be interest only or principle only
Scooby
#16 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 4:47:54 PM
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@scubidu.

Ideally, you are quite correct with your expectation of the rising yield curve. The main things to watch out for is the extent to which the government will continue to have higher budget deficits with limited or no options for external borrowing and whether investors will start to panic over the 2012 elections.

For the bond portfolios with banks, it depends with whether they are holding them to maturity(HTM)or the other two options (held for trading or available for sale).

I know there are some banks who, as part of them generating profits this year have decided to focus on trading on the bonds. You can remember the big demand for bond traders earlier in the year. As such, they were able to make huge profits in the first half of 2010. Am not sure that can be sustained going forward if investors start pushing for higher interest rates.

The rise in the bond prices this year won't affect the profitability of banks with HTM bond portfolios.

Cheers
Scubidu
#17 Posted : Wednesday, August 18, 2010 2:49:02 PM
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emlyn ngwiri wrote:
@scooby i tend to differ on the issue of duration, Bonds with high coupon rates and, in turn, high yields will tend to have lower durations than bonds that pay low coupon rates or offer low yields. This makes empirical sense, because when a bond pays a higher coupon rate or has a high yield, the holder of the security receives repayment for the security at a faster rate.

in essence,the issue of yields does affect the term structue otherwise the cbk would not be interested in graphing the yield curve would they?


@emlyn. I find this statement interesting. Using the logical above, how would the yield curve look if a bond with a higher coupon rate (high yield) has a lower duration? I'm also doing some research on this, do you have an online source you could share with me that could explain the above statement? Thanks.

@scooby. The profile of most bond portfolios for banks haven't changed expect perhaps for CFC, NIC and DTBK who have more bonds under held-for-sale & available-for-sale. In the cfc annual report a bulk of the government securities were tradable and it reflects in the non interest income.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
emlyn ngwiri
#18 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 9:28:43 AM
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Location: nairobi
morning,@ Scubidu please click on the link below or copy paste the link.

http://www.investopedia....dbond/advancedbond5.asp

Scubidu
#19 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 2:30:37 PM
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Location: Nairobi
@emlyn. Great stuff man. Although I'll admit I haven't a clue what have of that article said. But now that you have done the research, can you make a play on this market? Say I gave you a bond fund to run, what would you suggest? government or corporate bond? etc.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
emlyn ngwiri
#20 Posted : Thursday, August 19, 2010 2:55:55 PM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
The performance of both of these bonds can seem very similar. During a good economy, corporate bonds are going to outperform government bonds. Whenever the economy is bad, government bonds are going to actually do better than a corporate bond. If you look at the long-term performance of each, corporate bonds are going to outperform government bonds overall.i would go for corporate Bonds applying the a hybrid of strategies to magnify returns.


Bond portfolio management strategies can be divided into five groups, in kenya, only the first two can be actively used;

1. Passive portfolio strategies
a. Buy and hold
b. Indexing
2. Active management strategies
a. Interest rate anticipation
b. Valuation analysis
c. Credit analysis
d. Yield spread analysis
e. Bond swaps
3. Core-plus management strategy
4. Matched-funding techniques
a. Dedicated portfolio, exact cash match
b. Dedicated portfolio, optimal cash match and reinvestment
c. Classical (“pure”) immunization
d. Horizon matching
5. Contingent procedures (structured active management)
a. Contingent immunization
b. Other contingent procedures



you will note that the cfc senior subordinated bond is a first of its kind in kenya applying tranching technique as an alternative to of paying interest the 'Usual' way.
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