Puzzling …….

Sample a few extracts from the opinion polls.

1. Synovate poll: How would you vote in the referendum?

Results: May 2010: Yes = 57%; No = 20%;

April 2010: Yes = 64%; No = 17%;

These Synovate numbers clearly show a drop in support. Yet, Synovate (Waititu), without flinching tells Kenyans on National TV that the more Kenyans familiarize themselves with the draft the more they are likely to vote Yes. Is he then implying that Kenyans have become LESS familiar with the draft since April even with the civic education and distribution of copies that has been going on since?

2. The two polls though conducted during the same period (Synovate poll 22-28 May and Infotrack Harris poll taken 24-27 may) contradict each other through and through. Sample the following:

(a) Synovate : Yes = 57%; No = 20%
Infotrack : Yes = 63%; No = 21%

(b)Yes vote by province
Synovate Infotrack
Nairobi 61% 70%
Central 58% 63%
Nyanza 76% 81%
Western 65% 73%
Coast 54% 67%
Eastern 41% 41%
Rift V. 39% 59%
N.East. 88% 86%


(c )Familiarity with draft (% familiar with draft).

Male Female Urban Rural Total

Synovate:43% 28% 41% 33% 35%

Infotrack: 70% 62% 70% 58% 66%

By province Synovate Infotrack
Nairobi 45% 70%
Central 34% 66%
Nyanza 39% 79%
Western 38% 77%
Coast 31% 64%
Eastern 36% 55%
Rift V. 33% 63%
N.East. 21% 78%

It will be recalled that Infotrack also used their above date which indicate high familiarity levels in Nyanza and, of all places, the remote North Eastern to declare that more people will go Green on account of civic education.

3. Even within the same poll the numbers don’t quite add up. For example, distilling the latest Synovate data on support for the draft based on familiarity yields 54% Yes; while if one adds up the support numbers by province the Yes works out to 55%.


Do you smell a rat, a stinking rat??