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Housing Finance
guru267
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 2:11:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@proverB agreed... investors buy low p/e stocks because they have a very limited downside risk..

but we all know that stocks have low p/e because the market is pesimistic about something in the company and stocks have high p/e because the market is optimistic about something in the company...

the decision for investors is to decide if the market is being too pesimistic or too optimistic...

IMHO HFCK has no reason not to grow exponentially...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mv_ufanisi
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 2:20:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@guru267, ProverB has given you a pretty good method. I would suggest you think of it in the same way you would think before buying a house. It's both an art and a science without exact answers. And think about it as if you were buying the whole company.
PE is important to inform you whether the market has over-priced or under-priced the thing you are buying. It's very similar to how when you go to a market and find massive discounts on offer, you buy as much as you can. If the market is over-priced u don't buy.
Assets and Liabilities are an important check but as you know some companies make more money with less assets and some with huge assets make less returns on assets. So preferably a great company with sufficient protection and ground in the market, whose price is supported by its net assets and brand, with steadily rising profits and with sound management etc.

guru267
#13 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 1:58:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@maichblack i hope you listened to a sister and bought this heavily on this counter... because the sleeping giant has woken up but not yet completely... smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Thursday, April 29, 2010 7:17:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
Low ROE...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#15 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 6:27:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Low ROE...


@VVS extreme room for improvement on all aspects of the financials of this company and this will be pushed forward by equity bank...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#16 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 6:27:48 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Here we go again praising HF with only 4000 active mortgages. Purely speculative i have happy memories of this stock in 2006 moving 16/- to 65. Enjoy your ride with all talk about a hostile takeover. It never happened in 2006 and i hardly think it will happen now.
guru267
#17 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 6:37:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
Here we go again praising HF with only 4000 active mortgages. Purely speculative i have happy memories of this stock in 2006 moving 16/- to 65. Enjoy your ride with all talk about a hostile takeover. It never happened in 2006 and i hardly think it will happen now.


mkonomtupu there is no talk about a hostile takeover... both JM and Ireri have talked about more of a collaboration between the 2 banks with equity planning to use HFCK to reach the common mwananchi with mortgages...
and as i've said before if anyone watched JM's interview you would understand what is in store for HFCK....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#18 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 9:25:01 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Guru, i don't see room for collaboration between the HF and Eqt. If you look at HF results I don't think equity did much to help HF mobilise deposits from its members. HF will also need long-term deposits to help it lower its mortgage rates or an outright infusion of capital to enable it lend to big projects. HF is only good value due to its institutional memory in dealing with kenya's mortgage market. Equity simply has to take over HF and convert it into its mortgage department, that way it can leverage on equity's balance sheet and customer base. I would say a price of 26/- is good for a takeover. Remember Transcentury also wanted to take over HF until someone leaked the info and the price doubled to 32, its dejavu all over again
guru267
#19 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 9:33:34 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
Remember Transcentury also wanted to take over HF until someone leaked the info and the price doubled to 32, its dejavu all over again


Its deja vu all over again but only this time equity will have to pay a crazy premium since shareholders might completely refuse to budge and they have a very strong desire to tap into HF's expertise...
for some reason i dont see equity giving up on this one this time around...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
luxel
#20 Posted : Friday, April 30, 2010 10:17:37 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/17/2008
Posts: 152
Co-op bank was the first to open a strong mortgage dept. (as opposed to subsidiary) to ensure the lending capability is pegged to the banks strength. KCB noted the strategy and hurriedly absorbed their S&L.

Equity's strategy is even better because they will not only have a mortgage dept. but with many years of experience plus EB capital base. The shareholders of HF should realise that they are better off with 30% of a bigger company than owning 100% of a small non performing unit.
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