GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value
Dear Investors,
The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.
On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.
By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.
