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directional forecast
karasinga
#11 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 10:42:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
@murchr
with the data at our disposal, i can only project targets already on my chart. the best projection of the targets will be made when we have a defined wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c. currently there are around three options available to us which might not offer a good base for projecting. but don't be surprised if keno hit the aforementioned target. 14 was to keep us focused higher and prevent us from entirely alighting this ride prematurely. let me try to keep us updated on the progress of this counter. otherwise i am grateful for your concern.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
murchr
#12 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 11:16:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
karasinga wrote:
@murchr
with the data at our disposal, i can only project targets already on my chart. the best projection of the targets will be made when we have a defined wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c. currently there are around three options available to us which might not offer a good base for projecting. but don't be surprised if keno hit the aforementioned target. 14 was to keep us focused higher and prevent us from entirely alighting this ride prematurely. let me try to keep us updated on the progress of this counter. otherwise i am grateful for your concern.


I am planning to play trader with KK sell and buy periodically so this kind of analysis will help. Thanks a bunch.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 11:27:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,371
Location: Nairobi
@karasingha - This is too complex for my little brain. I am going to stick to fundamental analysis but I will keep on popping in to see what's happening. Cheers!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
karasinga
#14 Posted : Sunday, March 13, 2016 11:45:36 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
@ murchr
that kind of trading is what they call swing trading. i dont known what wazuan's recommendation are regarding swing trading vs buy and hold. i will try to post up to date charts to see where we are going.

@ vituvingisana
my apologies if this information in any way was too complex for you. stick around may be the technical analysis may start solving some of the dilemmas you might have had, if any,in the past.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#15 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 5:51:27 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
@enyands
i too am not a pro. just giving what i have on my charts and also what i saw lacking on this site. could be the time has come for us to start combining both fundamentals and technicals.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
shiznit
#16 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 10:40:25 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 72
Location: KENYA
karasinga wrote:
@enyands
i too am not a pro. just giving what i have on my charts and also what i saw lacking on this site. could be the time has come for us to start combining both fundamentals and technicals.


I agree, maybe some of the more experienced with charts and all should start a knowledge sharing thread, not even necessarily for forecasting those on the NSE but to help guys get a gist of it all.

Or does someone have any pointers?
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
kasibitta
#17 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 11:37:11 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
@karasinga...quite commendable.If only i understood even half of the kind of analysis ability you got...

I will be here cheering you on and learning.Keep posting.
murchr
#18 Posted : Monday, March 14, 2016 4:58:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
karasinga wrote:
@ murchr
that kind of trading is what they call swing trading. i dont known what wazuan's recommendation are regarding swing trading vs buy and hold. i will try to post up to date charts to see where we are going.

@ vituvingisana
my apologies if this information in any way was too complex for you. stick around may be the technical analysis may start solving some of the dilemmas you might have had, if any,in the past.


@karasinga...the so many wazua are traders, but they are currently chasing money in other markets. The market setting right now doesn't allow very active trading anyway (T+3 Settlement). So I will be timing the markets as the price swings. In other news KK hit Kes 11.xy today.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
karasinga
#19 Posted : Tuesday, March 15, 2016 9:45:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Let us have a look at btak

With the data i have, btak has been on a down trend since sept 23rd 2014 @ a high of 40. The elliot wave count below shows 4 complete waves and wave 5 in the making.

If you look more closely, after wave 4 retracement(which ended @ a high of 21 on 11th august 2015) we had the 1st wave down to a low of 15(making wave 1 of 5) as on 27th august 2015 then retraced to a high of 18 = a 50% fib level(making wave 2 of 5. Btak later dropped further to a low of 14.2 on 15th oct 2015. A retracement followed to a high of 17 = 61.8% fib level. This rules out possibility of this high being wave 4 of 5 and makes us think of an alternative wave count which retraces to such levels. This can only be wave (ii) of 3 and thus the low of 14.2 was wave (i) of 3. This tells us we will have an extended wave 3 of 5. That has been evident as shown below.
Wave (iii) of 3 followed at a low 10.7 on 22nd jan 2016 then retraced to a high of 12.8( making wave (iv) of 3) as on 5th feb 2016.



Where are we.

Wave (v) of 3 is on the making which will complete the extended wave 3 of 5.
Will we hit have the bottom when complete wave 3 of 5? No

Expectation.
If our wave count are right and we have end of wave 3 of 5 in place, then we will have a rally that will terminate @ either 38.2%(13.5) or 23.6%(12.5) of wave 2 of 5 and 3 of 5. Wave 5 of 5 might be lower than the current price and might be the best buy levels to either;
1st target 10 to 10.5
2nd target 9.6 to 9.4

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Spikes
#20 Posted : Tuesday, March 15, 2016 10:08:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
karasinga wrote:
Let us have a look at btak

With the data i have, btak has been on a down trend since sept 23rd 2014 @ a high of 40. The elliot wave count below shows 4 complete waves and wave 5 in the making.

If you look more closely, after wave 4 retracement(which ended @ a high of 21 on 11th august 2015) we had the 1st wave down to a low of 15(making wave 1 of 5) as on 27th august 2015 then retraced to a high of 18 = a 50% fib level(making wave 2 of 5. Btak later dropped further to a low of 14.2 on 15th oct 2015. A retracement followed to a high of 17 = 61.8% fib level. This rules out possibility of this high being wave 4 of 5 and makes us think of an alternative wave count which retraces to such levels. This can only be wave (ii) of 3 and thus the low of 14.2 was wave (i) of 3. This tells us we will have an extended wave 3 of 5. That has been evident as shown below.
Wave (iii) of 3 followed at a low 10.7 on 22nd jan 2016 then retraced to a high of 12.8( making wave (iv) of 3) as on 5th feb 2016.



Where are we.

Wave (v) of 3 is on the making which will complete the extended wave 3 of 5.
Will we hit have the bottom when complete wave 3 of 5? No

Expectation.
If our wave count are right and we have end of wave 3 of 5 in place, then we will have a rally that will terminate @ either 38.2%(13.5) or 23.6%(12.5) of wave 2 of 5 and 3 of 5. Wave 5 of 5 might be lower than the current price and might be the best buy levels to either;
1st target 10 to 10.5
2nd target 9.6 to 9.4

STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis





http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...625&p=22#post717715

I was absolutely correct with my prophecy.


John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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