Wazua
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Oil prices.. how low can it go?
Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Kusadikika wrote:Won't stay low for too long. Only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait can produce a barrel for less than $10. Another low cost producer is Iraq at $10.70. All other producers need higher prices to survive:
USA-36$ Canada-41$ Brazil-49$ UK-52$
And even the low cost producers need higher prices to fund their budgets. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain would run out of money in 5 years if prices remain under 50$. I would give it a year at most before prices are back up, at least above 55$. The market respects no one.You can control the market for a long time like OPEC has been doing but eventually the market forces will carry the day.Its like somebody saying he bought britam shares at 35/= a year ago and if the share price doesn't go back to 35 he will be broke soon.This oil bear is a golden handcuffs situation on an international scale.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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To answer the question. Even if oil traded at $0 per barrel, we would pay KES 50.00 per litre of petrol. The KES 50.00 is made of of fixed costs which include government taxes, margins for oil marketing companies and distribution costs. Im paraphrasing the ERC chair quoted in the standard yesterday. Short answer. 50.00 For petrol The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2009 Posts: 360
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enyands wrote:Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan . Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 249 Location: nairobi
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shocks wrote:enyands wrote:Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan . Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!! ..desire to succeed is always fighting with fear of failure..
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,139 Location: Nairobi
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maina20 wrote:shocks wrote:enyands wrote:Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan . Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!! If the SS guys got their shit together, they would stop fighting amongst themselves and fund the pipeline through Kenya from the sale of the oil but they have played into Sudan's hands. Sudan makes about $1mn/day from SS oil while not having to worry about the politics except funding some faction or the other. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,706
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whiteowl wrote:Kusadikika wrote:Won't stay low for too long. Only Saudi Arabia and Kuwait can produce a barrel for less than $10. Another low cost producer is Iraq at $10.70. All other producers need higher prices to survive:
USA-36$ Canada-41$ Brazil-49$ UK-52$
And even the low cost producers need higher prices to fund their budgets. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain would run out of money in 5 years if prices remain under 50$. I would give it a year at most before prices are back up, at least above 55$. The market respects no one.You can control the market for a long time like OPEC has been doing but eventually the market forces will carry the day.Its like somebody saying he bought britam shares at 35/= a year ago and if the share price doesn't go back to 35 he will be broke soon.This oil bear is a golden handcuffs situation on an international scale. I think the key to watch is the US. Prices will stay low only if the US is satisfied with low prices. When US is dissatisfied with low prices you can bet they will cook up something even if it means declaring Saudi Arabia an axis of evil or suddenly there will be a coup in Angola or Iraq will invade Kuwait....... as in some big s*it will happen that will rock the market and prices will be up again.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 979 Location: Kenya
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Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel Without oil that SS wont have any foreign currency. More currency devaluation coming soon
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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VituVingiSana wrote:maina20 wrote:shocks wrote:enyands wrote:Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan . Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!! If the SS guys got their shit together, they would stop fighting amongst themselves and fund the pipeline through Kenya from the sale of the oil but they have played into Sudan's hands. Sudan makes about $1mn/day from SS oil while not having to worry about the politics except funding some faction or the other. Is it simple elementary mathematics challenges or @vvs you could not comprehend the figures in front of your eyes that you had to cook. Yes you are done with cooking, but the f@#kn shit thing is that the figure is approximately 10m$ daily or 3.600bs-$ annually or better said kshs360bn annually. That is equivalent to half of Kenya's commissioner of domestic taxes collections annually if my small brains have not forgotten the figures. Right before you and me, SS working for their better mortals. Unimaginable. This is crazy. Slavery at its best. Macharia should truly work with Silvia or they gonna sell those nationals to the devil for a song. Yawa @obiero help your brother here. This is shit, no need of owning a oil field or even producing oil, just have a pipeline then sit down and watch your wallet fatten.  {|=  quot;  quot; ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2009 Posts: 360
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maina20 wrote:shocks wrote:enyands wrote:Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel That country isn't independent .it's still a colony of sudan .they should have tabled that during referendum to free themselves from Sudan . Its not about being a colony, they don't have another pipeline option and I doubt Sudan will allow any body else to build a competitor pipeline. Its cheaper for Sudan to earn US $24 a barrel for 400,000 barrels a day and pay a local rebel than lose it entirely I believe Southern Sudan needs The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor project to avoid the Sudan route.. the project will open up and spur economic growth for the region...@ dreams are valid!! Alshababs obsession with Lamu (wachezaji wa kulipwa?), Machar and his boys. Sudan clearly protecting its interests
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,139 Location: Nairobi
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Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/21/2015 Posts: 78 Location: Pare Pare
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VituVingiSana wrote:Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE Interesting. The Iranians were to add another 500,000bbl post-sanctions. Is that even online yet?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,570 Location: nairobi
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watesh wrote:Swenani wrote:waaah SSD govt receives US $5 per barrel yet Sudan pockets US$24 per barrel Without oil that SS wont have any foreign currency. More currency devaluation coming soon Have equity bank staff resumed work? Calling for an adjustment by a factor of 6 was excessive despite the devaluation especially since it is not known whether the SSP may strengthen.. Adjusting pay into USD equivalent wld be sensible COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Nimerudi wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE Interesting. The Iranians were to add another 500,000bbl post-sanctions. Is that even online yet? Goes online starting March
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,139 Location: Nairobi
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whiteowl wrote:Nimerudi wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Brent (Mar delivery) has dropped below $28 in trading on the ICE Interesting. The Iranians were to add another 500,000bbl post-sanctions. Is that even online yet? Goes online starting March Plus it's low quality [high sulfur] that only a few refineries can handle well so there's a limited market for it. Of course, the refineries can demand a lower price for the oil which does benefit us eventually but not as much (or fast) as we would like. BTW, Brent trading on the ICE is not $30.58 so up 10% from the lows. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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that was quite a shocker, short position evaporated hivyo tu LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,139 Location: Nairobi
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Brent up another 10% on ICE to 32.50 or so... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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This is where Elliott becomes ever more useful. No need to bother yourself with 'fundamentals'. Elliotticians knew as far back as when oil was over $100 that it would fall! Quote:Most speculators were caught off guard by the dramatic price plunge. But the oil bust is no surprise to those who've read the third edition of Conquer the Crash. The book published in June 2014 with this chart and commentary:  [The chart] shows crude oil's bull market going back a hundred years. The structure is clearly five waves up within a parallel trend channel. … Look carefully and you'll notice that the 2011 peak -- the one labeled wave b -- precisely touched the upper channel line. Wave c should carry the price of oil below the 2008 low. Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...eers.aspx#ixzz3y2Os1YMB Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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Came across this article somewhere
"The highest price per barrel worldwide was about $140 ($140/barrel) around early 2014 and the price per litre (petrol) was about Ksh. 120 (Ksh. 120/litre). Now, the world prices have significantly dropped to $30 per barrel ($30/barrel). If we invoke simple algebra here, then the price per litre should not be more than Ksh. 45 per litre. One city in America which was charging about $4/gallon when the average world price was $140/barrel is now charging $1.60 per gallon (a 60% drop in the prices at the pump). Look at this: If $140/barrel = Ksh. 120/litre what of $30/barrel? This computation returns a value of (120x30)/140 = Ksh. 26/litre (when adjusted for inflation and transportation costs, this should not be more than Ksh. 45/litre), which is equivalent to an average of 60% drop in prices at the pump worldwide {to be exact it is [(120-45)/120]x100=63%} . What is going on in Kenya is price gouging supervised by ERC. The petrol price per litre currently should not be more than Ksh. 50. Kenyans should demand access to information to know what has been going on at the ERC with regard to all the functions of ERC particularly the energy sector (energy products - gas, fuel, paraffin, electricity, etc.) and water services and pricing since ERC was formed. It has played with the minds of Kenya by reducing only 50cts, Ksh. 1.00 or Ksh. 2.00 per litre."
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Oil prices.. how low can it go?
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