Wazua
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Will NSE touch 4,000 betweeen now and 2012?
Rank: Member Joined: 5/16/2009 Posts: 145
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It looks so in the next few months
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 60
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'Under normal conditions,a 30% rise to 4,000 would not seem that daunting,but the NSE has been stuck around the 3,000 for a while. Can our great leaders deliver the economic environment to get us to 4,000 before the likely move back down in 2011 and 2012?' Writes @MainaT
Macro dynamics of Kenya economy seems to be fast changing; the influence of West's financial crisis now seems to have been rather exaggerated and the lull between that time and 2012 elections seems to be less likely ...
BTW,do you recall your comments about BAC (at 10) back in March ... take a peek at it ... to borrow one analysts analogy 'its tank is still full of gas' ... this is one of the largest consolidations of financial power in recent history...same dynamics as Baidu when I mentioned it here about two years back when it was below 100 …
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Aha Pm- karibu,re BoFA,yes,I completely agree though its a rising ship effect. I actually had a cheeky play on Citigroup (@$2.65) which is bubbling up nicely. Back to Kenya,I think the chances of us hitting 4,000 in the next 14 months i.e. the realistic window before we withdraw into full-time politics,are 20% at best. This is just based on budget deficit; on-going drought; fuel prices and NRK's. Therefore,its internal dynamics that will drive NSE. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/27/2007 Posts: 2,768
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the dynamics of our market is so predictable if its previous performances since the year 2000 is anything to go by...as is the usual case any improvement in investor confidence will propel the market,otherwise haiwesmek...btw our baggy mouthed mpigs have a very large part to play in the NSE performance... NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB ...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 60
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Citi is 'birds of a feather' alongside the financial survivors ...
Back to main topic; I have a gut feeling that after the Kenyan electoral system/violence is placed under microscope,it will no longer be business as usual; we have an excellent chance of breaking the election violence cycle that has dogged us every four years ...
NOW is quite an interesting moment vis-à-vis NSE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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PM- interesting article re 2012 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8293745.stm.
Also,see Jaindi Kisero's piece in DN today-he like me thinks politics will keep this economy down. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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My fear all along,and a goverment minster is aware? We should be hearing of goverment crackdown to mop up illegal arms but that is Kenya for you,but i believe the knot is slowly tightening on the warlords,that and with electoral reforms,anti corruption measures and a vision by Kenyans to see the current group of leadership failures for who they really are,and use a big broom on them across the board will see Kenya rise again...could even test 5000,2013.
see it through my lens?
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 60
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@maina / cnn, nice reads,but most scarry ...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Closed below the psychologically important 3,000 level. The next 3 days are crucial and I think Safcom will support a downward trend. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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You guys love to dream.The road towards 2012 is rocky. If you guys are just sharpening knives/pangas and stocking arms;and dreaming of nse rally?Anyway,you can keep on dreaming.
Ali Baba
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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The slow but consistent downward move is nothing to play with....I think 3450 was the peak for this year....lets watch and wait...but hey! maybe tommorrow we'll all be bullish! The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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SHEEP,
I think you are a real sheep !! See,Kenya is in a critical condition(politically).Your prezzo has become senile.I understand he has alzeimers disease.People who lined up to replace him in 2012;want to inherit his imperial presidential powers......meanwhile kenyans are dying of hunger,diseases,etc those who will survive are to be slaughtered during 2012 x-mas !!! And you can still see a rally???
Ali Baba
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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alibaba I follow the leader..that is the trend...I dont care so much about the rukus going on...people always give themselves reasons to justify their convictions...ohh why this why that...but I have learnt not to argue with the trend...its the simple techniques that make money but people prefer complicated stuff....if you look carefully you will see a wolf in sheepskin The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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@sheep. We are in a bear market. A market does not just jump out of a bear. What happens is that the market will frequently trend between a range. You are likely to observe however that the market will not reach the previous 'low' on the downward trend,while it will likely surpass the pevious 'high' on the upward trend. My take is that march was the worst in this bear market. The world stocks are also looking upwards. In a short time NSE will also be looking upwards Life is short. Live passionately.
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Will NSE touch 4,000 betweeen now and 2012?
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