Like AA, I agree that contrary to the opinion polls, this election has a strong likelihood of ending in the first round. But I cannot go as far as predicting with certainty which of the two horses will win.

My TWO biggest concerns on the opinion polls vis a vis the elections are the following:

1. Up to now the pollsters are relying on an oral affirmation that their interviewee is a registered voter (they do not ask for any proof). IEBC was targeting 18 million voters so theoretically, they fell short by 4 million. In my view, the true number of unregistered persons lies between 5 and 6 million. You can deduce this from several factors including IEBC's obvious underestimation of the number of voters in a couple of non-urban counties where the number of registered voters exceeded 95%.

Remember even in these counties where registration met or exceeded the target, there are still thousands of people who did not see the need to (or could not e.g. health reasons) register. This is a common sense statistic. Tom Wolf once said as much when he alluded to roughly 30% of their respondents not being registered voters (and were therefore lying) though the journalist he was speaking to for some reason did not see the need to further prod this startling admission.

Why is this startling? Because if there was significant disparity in the success rate for voter registration between the bedrock counties of the two leading candidates, the opinion polls may differ significantly from the reality on the ground.


2. Turnout. Turnout. T-U-R-N-O-U-T. Even when they talk about it, the pollsters are tucking any mention of this critical factor deep in the heart of their reports. The politicians obviously understand its importance but still, the pollsters should yell this from every rooftop they can find. For instance, ff one side manages 85% average turnout in its strongholds and the other does a 65% average, the game is over.


If there is going to be chaos in Kenya, my view is that it is these two factors that may likely precipitate massive disenchantment among the loser's supporters, lend credence to rigging claims (a gap much larger than the opinion polls predicted) and throw the credibility of the elections into question (never mind that this will be a matter of perception).

Like AA, I agree that contrary to the opinion polls, this election has a strong likelihood of ending in the first round. But I cannot go as far as predicting with certainty which of the two horses will win.

My TWO biggest concerns on the opinion polls vis a vis the elections are the following:

1. Up to now the pollsters are relying on an oral affirmation that their interviewee is a registered voter (they do not ask for any proof). IEBC was targeting 18 million voters so theoretically, they fell short by 4 million. In my view, the true number of unregistered persons lies between 5 and 6 million. You can deduce this from several factors including IEBC's obvious underestimation of the number of voters in a couple of non-urban counties where the number of registered voters exceeded 95%.

Remember even in these counties where registration met or exceeded the target, there are still thousands of people who did not see the need to (or could not e.g. health reasons) register. This is a common sense statistic. Tom Wolf once said as much when he alluded to roughly 30% of their respondents not being registered voters (and were therefore lying) though the journalist he was speaking to for some reason did not see the need to further prod this startling admission.

Why is this startling? Because if there was significant disparity in the success rate for voter registration between the bedrock counties of the two leading candidates, the opinion polls may differ significantly from the reality on the ground.


2. Turnout. Turnout. T-U-R-N-O-U-T. Even when they talk about it, the pollsters are tucking any mention of this critical factor deep in the heart of their reports. The politicians obviously understand its importance but still, the pollsters should yell this from every rooftop they can find. For instance, ff one side manages 85% average turnout in its strongholds and the other does a 65% average, the game is over.


If there is going to be chaos in Kenya, my view is that it is these two factors that may likely precipitate massive disenchantment among the loser's supporters, lend credence to rigging claims (a gap much larger than the opinion polls predicted) and throw the credibility of the elections into question (never mind that this will be a matter of perception).