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NEW POLL SHOWS JUBILEE AHEAD AT 45%......UHURU NA KAZI!!
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muganda
#21 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 10:18:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
BGL wrote:
The major media houses have shunned the smart octopus opinion polls...

@BGL what you see as snobbery is an attempt by media houses not to propagate quacks.

You see if even you, in your own capactiy were charged to carry out a research for your workplace, and you chose this upcountry firm which is perhaps in its first assignment and is nowhere in the top 10 researchers in Kenya, you would be fired!

As reputation goes thus far, election polls would be ranked on basis of credibility as:
1) Ipsos Synovate
2) Infotrack Research
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jaggernaut
#22 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 11:06:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/9/2008
Posts: 5,389
The Smart Octopus poll should not be dismissed. Carrying out an opinion poll is not rocket science. It merely involves asking just 2,000 voters out of 14,000,000 (in the 47 counties) who they would vote for. Even a start-up company can do that.
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Liv
#23 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 11:08:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
muganda wrote:
BGL wrote:
The major media houses have shunned the smart octopus opinion polls...

@BGL what you see as snobbery is an attempt by media houses not to propagate quacks.

You see if even you, in your own capactiy were charged to carry out a research for your workplace, and you chose this upcountry firm which is perhaps in its first assignment and is nowhere in the top 10 researchers in Kenya, you would be fired!

As reputation goes thus far, election polls would be ranked on basis of credibility as:
1) Ipsos Synovate
2) Infotrack Research


It is almost practically impossible to do proper polls in a 3rd world country like Kenya.

Did you review the results of the last poll these 2 companies did together for the same period sponsored by Citizen TV? They were very different. In some areas the difference in results was as high as 17%... and this is not supposed to happen if the polls were done properly. They are supposed to be 2-3% different in all the areas if they are professionally done. Yet these are the most professional polling companies that we have here.

IPSOS is more credible having been in the practice longer and showing more professionalism... However during the announcement of their last poll (last week), they said they could not cover the 47 counties unless they are paid to do it as it is very expensive. You can see some of the limitations

In the developed countries... populations are more homogeneous, people are more enlightened / educated, people in one region have common issues that they want sorted out. Their incomes and standards of living are not very different.... their markets are almost 100% efficient...everyone gets information almost the same time.

That cannot be said about Kenya....and getting a proper sample to rely on is very hard and expensive. Polls are used to influence people....just like media house people are paid to influence people for certain candidates.

So none of the 3 Ipsos, infotrack, octopus can give us reliable polls results for Kenya.

In 2007 Synovate and Infotrack were showing ODM was leading with a big margin in most of the early polls....(peddling influence for ODM). But to save face,.... since they were not sure who would win.... their last poll showed Kibaki and Raila were in a statistical tie....too close to call. This was meant to save their businesses.

The same script is being played again this time.... Ipsos and infotrack are pro Raila....and now we have an outrageous new one Octopus which is much pro Uhuru. I expect to see 1 or 2 more polls company coming out to support either of the sides.

The election results on 4th March will be different from the polls we are being shown now. That you can take to the bank.
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ChessMaster
#24 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 11:16:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Polls use samples. We don't know if the people in the sample will vote, whether they said the truth or whether they will change their minds.To be honest if voting is done in private will people really say who they wish to vote for in a poll?
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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McReggae
#25 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 11:45:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
So now even Maggy Ireri of Synovate is being dismissed!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Lolest!
#26 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 12:17:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
muganda wrote:


As reputation goes thus far, election polls would be ranked on basis of credibility as:
1) Ipsos Synovate
2) Infotrack Research

Infocrap should come a distant second! Like this:

1) Ipsos Synovate
999) Infoquack Research
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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githundi
#27 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 12:27:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/19/2010
Posts: 1,308
Location: nairobi metropolitan
McReggae wrote:
So now even Maggy Ireri of Synovate is being dismissed!!!!

In affirmative. Concur with @ Liv.
Democracy does not belong to the dead
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accelriskconsult
#28 Posted : Monday, January 28, 2013 12:57:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
Some of the beliefs peddled on this site portray a lot ignorance. The quality of discourse on this site is getting worse by the day. Surely the reason why NTV and Citizen chose to ignore Smart Octopus are the very same reasons why we should not be dwelling on those quacks. Whatever the outcome of the March 4 election, we all know that Smart Octopus is a bunch of guys trying to curry favour with Jubilee. Any way, Gallup will probably conduct a poll soon and that should tell us what to expect. Oh Wait wait, doesnt Raila own Gallup?
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