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Game of numbers. ......
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/11/2008 Posts: 892
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:UK is not Kibaki, the ball game in Eastern is different, he will not be getting the near fanatical thumbs up that Kibaki was guaranteed.
My analysis is only on the numbers available for the taking, as the elections move nearer and UK is confirmed as the flag bearer, the gloves will come off and expect CORD to milk the ICC/International sanctions angle to the full. They are not doing that as they don't want him to give him time to restrategise.
I can assure you, many of his rational supporters will opt to not take the risk, especially in Eastern and Rift. His total numbers will certainly
I still believe UK will not be on the ballot
I believe in the constitution and expect him to fall way below the bar set by chapter 6. me too, i hope and pray he will not be on the ballot. bt for different reasons than yours. For in him (Jesus) we live and move and have our being-Acts 17:28
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/21/2008 Posts: 2,490
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This is an interesting thread… I like the numbers analysis. Will ICC have a higher influence on voting patens than ethnicity? The man who marries a beautiful woman, and the farmer who grows corn by the roadside have the same problem
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/14/2012 Posts: 201 Location: nairobi
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ZZE123 wrote:This is an interesting thread… I like the numbers analysis. Will ICC have a higher influence on voting patens than ethnicity? Of course tribalism will win over ICC Comeon, this is Kenya. LIFE IS SO GOOD
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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https://m.facebook.com/3...;refid=17&ref=streamIf you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
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ali wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:UK is not Kibaki, the ball game in Eastern is different, he will not be getting the near fanatical thumbs up that Kibaki was guaranteed.
My analysis is only on the numbers available for the taking, as the elections move nearer and UK is confirmed as the flag bearer, the gloves will come off and expect CORD to milk the ICC/International sanctions angle to the full. They are not doing that as they don't want him to give him time to restrategise.
I can assure you, many of his rational supporters will opt to not take the risk, especially in Eastern and Rift. His total numbers will certainly
I still believe UK will not be on the ballot
I believe in the constitution and expect him to fall way below the bar set by chapter 6. me too, i hope and pray he will not be on the ballot. bt for different reasons than yours. Unless UK is disqualified by the local courts, the ICC card might gain Jubilnation lots of sympathy especially in Eastern and dwindle Cord numbers further in RV.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2010 Posts: 546 Location: Garissa
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:RAILA WIN LIKE THIS;
Nairobi 1 million (the reason the numbers swelled is coz the migrant labourers did not travel back to western to register. they are all here and will turn up to vote)
Coast 700K
Nyanza 1.7 million
Western 1.2 million
Eastern 1. million
Central 0
Rift valley 0.8 million (Maasai votes, bukusu votes and votes from a few town dwellers and tea pickers scatterred around Kericho and Nandi areas)
North Eastern 0.2 million
TOTAL 6.6
UHURUTO
Rift Valley 2.2 million
Central 1.9 million
Nairobi 0.7 million
Eastern 1 million
Nyanza 0.2 million
Coast 0.3
Western 0
NE 0.1
TOTAL 6.5
Turnout 13.1 million 91 %
My projected turnout is slightly higher than what will actually be the case, I am betting on a turnout of btn 75 - 80% in round 1 and slightly lower in round 2. TNA easily outnumbers ODM in Nairobi by a huge margin. Rongai is a good reflection of the larger cosmopolitan Nairobi today. TNA thrashed ODM handsdown in Rongai. By extension, Jubilee Alliance will repeat the same walkover in Nairobi without breaking a sweat. The mistake PNU did in 2007 in Nairobi of fielding five candidates in one constituency will most likely not be repeated. By the way, sit down and watch real cutthroat politics taking centre stage. Its all systems go. In politics, its the numbers that matter, not opinion of Kahawa Anan. Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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Do your maths any way you want but RAO gets more votes in NAI than UK anyday, very many LUO/LUHYA voters will be voting in Nai instead of the traditional travel upcountry. And with the added Kamba votes, he moves ahead of UK easily. Is Rongai in Nai or Riftvalley, plus it is not an indicator of anything as its mostly the Kyuks who prefer to settle in their own homes even if it means living out of town. RAO's constituency prefer to rent "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/14/2007 Posts: 4,152
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@ Obi......As someone pointed out Nairobi has never really been anyone's stronghold......it will be 50-50 for both CORD and JUBILEE. Btw why do you think OAR wants Maggie to run for Nairobi Gov and not Kidero??
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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TAZ wrote:@ Obi......As someone pointed out Nairobi has never really been anyone's stronghold......it will be 50-50 for both CORD and JUBILEE. Btw why do you think OAR wants Maggie to run for Nairobi Gov and not Kidero?? Because RAO does not want another Luo taking a significant position as it will create the perception that ODM/CORD is a tribal outfit. BTW In terms of real influence, the Nairobi governor has the potential to be the second most powerful politician after the president. its a pity that parties are allowing the likes of Maggie and Waititu to even dream that they should be considered for such a position. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/11/2008 Posts: 892
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Do your maths any way you want but RAO gets more votes in NAI than UK anyday, very many LUO/LUHYA voters will be voting in Nai instead of the traditional travel upcountry. And with the added Kamba votes, he moves ahead of UK easily.
Is Rongai in Nai or Riftvalley, plus it is not an indicator of anything as its mostly the Kyuks who prefer to settle in their own homes even if it means living out of town. RAO's constituency prefer to rent unless a major occurence has taken place Oar has not, will n beat a UMK united in nbi. I can bet on that. Migrants or no migrants. Even Kangumu knows that veyr well. Even with voter importation, Tett has never lost a westlands contest thru the ballot but thru extra-eletrol means. Same with embakasi in 07. Listen to kriegler testimonies. Rongai reflects NBI in many ways For in him (Jesus) we live and move and have our being-Acts 17:28
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2010 Posts: 546 Location: Garissa
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Because RAO does not want another Luo taking a significant position as it will create the perception that ODM/CORD is a tribal outfit.
As evidenced by his knack for fixing his relatives (brothers, sisters, etc) and his tribes men in high positions and abroad as ambassadors (Secretary General, Org Sec etc,) he would be more than happy to actually impose his relative or wife to be a Governor of Nairobi without a second thought. The Only Reason he is backing Wanjiru is cauze he believes she would bolt from ODM while her stay would attract Kikuyu and Starehe votes to Cord, period. Politics is about strategy and gain the numbers and numbers make you win. For your information, demografically, Rongai reflects Nairobi more than any other town in Kenya. It is the boarding town for Nairobi workers where 600 matatus and 200 buses ferry passengers on a daily basis. By day, the town is slow but comes to life in the morning and evening. Being in the Rift Valley is only for matters semantic. Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,038 Location: GA
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@obi you are right with 1.78 million voters most of this are migrant workers from ukambani western and nyanza who will tilt toward cord .kiambu county has 800 000 voters making illogical to have similar number of kikuyu leaving in nairobi may be 400 000 to 500 000.Their is also a sizeable middle class population who may have an impact particulary on the governor position
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
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madollar wrote:@obi you are right with 1.78 million voters most of this are migrant workers from ukambani western and nyanza who will tilt toward cord .kiambu county has 800 000 voters making illogical to have similar number of kikuyu leaving in nairobi may be 400 000 to 500 000.Their is also a sizeable middle class population who may have an impact particulary on the governor position Simple analysis: 1. Dagoretti south = TNA 2. Dagoretti north = 50/50 (Kawangware = Luhya) 3. Parklands Constituency 50/50 4. Karen / Langata Constituency 50/50 5. Kibera Constituency CORD 7. Roysambu Constituency Jubilee 8. Kasarani Constituency Jubilee 9. Ruaraka Constituency Jubilee 10. Kariobangi Constituency CORD 11. Kayole Constituency Jubilee 12. Embakasi Constituency Jubilee 13. Mihango Constituency Jubilee 14. Nairobi-West Constituency CORD 15. Makadara Constituency Jubilee 16. Kamukunji Constituency Jubilee 17. Starehe Constituency 50/50 18. Mathare Constituency Jubilee. Even if the 50/50 constituencies were to go to CORD, nairobi would seem more of a Jubilination than a CORDination.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2010 Posts: 546 Location: Garissa
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Rahatupu wrote:
Simple analysis:
1. Dagoretti south = TNA
2. Dagoretti north = 50/50 (Kawangware = Luhya)
3. Parklands Constituency 50/50
4. Karen / Langata Constituency 50/50
5. Kibera Constituency CORD
7. Roysambu Constituency Jubilee
8. Kasarani Constituency Jubilee
9. Ruaraka Constituency Jubilee
10. Kariobangi Constituency CORD
11. Kayole Constituency Jubilee
12. Embakasi Constituency Jubilee
13. Mihango Constituency Jubilee
14. Nairobi-West Constituency CORD
15. Makadara Constituency Jubilee
16. Kamukunji Constituency Jubilee
17. Starehe Constituency 50/50
18. Mathare Constituency Jubilee.
Even if the 50/50 constituencies were to go to CORD, nairobi would seem more of a Jubilination than a CORDination.
Habari ndio hiyo. @Raha, I thought Kibish was in Lang'ata constituency ama they have hived it off as a constituency on its own? Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:mpobiz wrote:maka wrote:Let whoever is meant to win,win... The winner will be determined not by luck but by votes. Easteners won't vote for rao at the expense of their jubilee neighbours and coisins. cord don't have the numbers and that's the bottom line. ...is this why we gained independence?so that every election year we behave like fools and galvanize each other we continue propagating hatred,making otherz seem of less value as compared to others...a majority of us r jst screwed up. @Maka Some realities are sad.. When people are discussing how to balance a budget.. how much government is too much in peoples lives..we are more engaged in tribal maths.. Mtu wetu! mtu Wenyu..! I'll be selling ropes in March or April for the suicidal amongst us who would have lost..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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Sure wrote:Rahatupu wrote:
Simple analysis:
1. Dagoretti south = TNA
2. Dagoretti north = 50/50 (Kawangware = Luhya)
3. Parklands Constituency 50/50
4. Karen / Langata Constituency 50/50
5. Kibera Constituency CORD
7. Roysambu Constituency Jubilee
8. Kasarani Constituency Jubilee
9. Ruaraka Constituency Jubilee
10. Kariobangi Constituency CORD
11. Kayole Constituency Jubilee
12. Embakasi Constituency Jubilee
13. Mihango Constituency Jubilee
14. Nairobi-West Constituency CORD
15. Makadara Constituency Jubilee
16. Kamukunji Constituency Jubilee
17. Starehe Constituency 50/50
18. Mathare Constituency Jubilee.
Even if the 50/50 constituencies were to go to CORD, nairobi would seem more of a Jubilination than a CORDination.
Habari ndio hiyo. @Raha, I thought Kibish was in Lang'ata constituency ama they have hived it off as a constituency on its own? This is more of your opinion and less of facts. I wish you could start from the current MP's/councillors and convince us why ODM/CORD will lose out to Jubilee on seats that they have always held. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,038 Location: GA
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@rahatupu The coveted positons are govenor senator and women county rep not mps. watch out for the numbers of registered voters in certain constituecies leaning towards CORD and a place like roysambu.JUBILEE may find itself in nairobi county like ODM in 2007 where it won majority seats but lost the popular vote
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
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madollar wrote:@rahatupu The coveted positons are govenor senator and women county rep not mps. watch out for the numbers of registered voters in certain constituecies leaning towards CORD and a place like roysambu.JUBILEE may find itself in nairobi county like ODM in 2007 where it won majority seats but lost the popular vote The real losers will be known once the party nominations are over, at the moment there is tension in both camps as to the manner of nominations. Early signs show CORD more likely to field multiple candidates than Jubilee (assuming they have more parties to placate than Jubilee).
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/23/2009 Posts: 526
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Sure wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Because RAO does not want another Luo taking a significant position as it will create the perception that ODM/CORD is a tribal outfit.
As evidenced by his knack for fixing his relatives (brothers, sisters, etc) and his tribes men in high positions and abroad as ambassadors (Secretary General, Org Sec etc,) he would be more than happy to actually impose his relative or wife to be a Governor of Nairobi without a second thought. The Only Reason he is backing Wanjiru is cauze he believes she would bolt from ODM while her stay would attract Kikuyu and Starehe votes to Cord, period. Politics is about strategy and gain the numbers and numbers make you win. For your information, demografically, Rongai reflects Nairobi more than any other town in Kenya. It is the boarding town for Nairobi workers where 600 matatus and 200 buses ferry passengers on a daily basis. By day, the town is slow but comes to life in the morning and evening. Being in the Rift Valley is only for matters semantic. Starehe and Wanjru will be separated since she is in the run for governor and the former will be contested separately and that is unlikely to make one change allegiance. Accept no one's definition of your life; define your life.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/23/2009 Posts: 526
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What role will money play in the polls in terms of campaigning and voting? I think I know who has the money and as Kenyans we have not changed much. Accept no one's definition of your life; define your life.
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