eboomerang wrote:tony stark wrote:@ eboomerang
I appreciate your point that more discussion is needed but I find a big fault in your logic. In fact that fault is usually called a logical fallacy called appeal to probability.
....I believe you were challenged to show documents where government has provided a SWOT analysis of large scale project it is implementing. Also if you haven't read vision 2030 and only rely on boozy conversations in the bar well please read it. It probably has alot of the information you require.
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Don't forget the main drift of my argument:
that no meaningful information has been provided to an intending investor or just a basic citizen. The call for a SWOT analysis was "pun intended". It is the most basic analysis you can provide for a potential venture, a high school chap would also understand it. Such basic information would be more useful than throwing large figures around for the project to sound "huge and profitable".
Let us not kid ourselves, there is no project without risks. It is to the interest of the government and the investor to make these risks known and appropriate business measures can then be taken.
A case study close to home. Former unified Sudan's economy was largely supported by Oil, which was primarily mined in the South. Did they ever think that one day the South would secede? probably yes, the same government should have been aware of all the signs.
If they were aware of such an occurence why did they not diversify the economy early enough while there was time to do so? They chose to bury their heads in the sand and continued to work with the assumption that the South will always depend on the North. Global pressure came in too fast than expected.Fast forward, South Sudan is planning to build a new pipeline infrastructure via Kenya. "Northern" Sudan will have an almost idle pipeline infrastructure. If North puts down their ego, they will reduce the charges for that infrastructure otherwise they will continue to loose revenue and more after shocks will follow in the economy.
Now think of the current situation for an investor who followed the government's chest thumping without being given all the necessary information. For example those who invested in refinary equipment or even a small investor who would carry out maintenance work on the pipeline.With regard to more examples of documenting public projects, check this out:
Highway projectTransportation System Planning @eboomerang, believe you me, its so tempting to call you a name or two. But i won't.
So as a trade off, pliz put your issues with the Lamu project in point form. Reason being, you asked about costs and benefits, as you mentioned in the above, we should not kid ourselves of the cost implications. Were you at any one point kidding? What else about your all-talk is pun intended? About the benefits, i have given example of how i, as a Kenyan will benefit directly,from my benefiting, hundreds will also benefit. Those who cry about port of Mombasa and the cost of taking goods to S.Sudan n elsewhere, are many. In the hundreds,extrapolate the benefits/numbers. Look at the bigger picture not picking on my benefit as an "individual". Mark you, all benefits are individual,put the individuals together and you get a whole section of the population benefiting.
About your nuclear example, PLEASE compare mangoes to mangoes,apples to apples. Examples MUST be relevant. You don't give examples for the sake. Add Value.
On S.Sudan n Sudan,the Sudanese economy is diversified. They have a much advanced petro-chemicals sector. Remember the US raids years back? Their agriculture is better managed and advanced than ours. Think Kenani sugar. When was the last time you had of famine in Sudan[North]?It just happened that the money from oil was a lot and easy, just drilling and selling. Diversification is such a complex issue,all sectors move in tandem. All in all, Sudanese economy is diversified. Take a tour of Khartoum.
Of investors following gov't "chest-thumping" blindly, please define/describe investor. The investor you are referring to. Because you are making them sound like idiots.
Building a port or pipeline is not like starting a muguka [miraa leaves] kiosk. You only need a stool, an old soda crate and shade. You can shift pitch whenever n wherever. Building a pipeline is serious business. DON'T mention Sudan here. This Lamu project will involve the 2 states, Kenya and S.Sudan.I don't know to what extend the Ethiopians will be involved, but it wont be much. Kenya is not Sudan to go to war with S.Sudan over something. Remember Migingo? How many shots have been fired? The investors as i said, who matter to the project will/have all the nitty-gritties of the project. That, you WON'T see on any of those sites you are surfing. Tenders are awarded everyday by the gov't, do we see the information on the internet/press? HELL NO.Lamu won't be different. The investors who matter will be briefed accordingly [not waste time with every dick n harry] the rest will be in the tender documents.
Projects of this magnitude can take even more than 20 years to break even. Think BOT, take a road build by investors privately, how long does it take to recoup their investment? Years if not decades. What if there are earthquakes? Does it mean it is not done in Japan, South Korea, Hong KOng? It is done. By investors, just as lamu will be done by investors,not the kind you are talking of.
About Tanzania building a new port or somali becoming stable, they might be threats to our Lamu port, but to what extend? Dar has a running port,why is Mombasa preferred over Dar? The same reasons that will make lamu preferred if not much better. It will take years before Somali can be fixed, leave alone it having a formidable challenge to Lamu. What's your point anyway? Just because they are or might build, we should run for the hills and not build? Its called staying AHEAD of the competition eboomerang.
Now! now! now!, how BIG is your small? A small time investor maintaining a multi-million dollar pipeline? I give it to you for sense of humor. But last i checked, this was not comedy central, so cut the crap. Oil pipeline maintenance is not done by small time investors. I understand the builder of the pipeline is already identified,several are lined for the port itself, then the rail builder will be identified soon enough,now, which other investor are you talking about? The B & Sons? So gov't should stop lpg/electrification coz charcoal vendors are going to run out of business?
As @ murchr put the merits of Lamu project in point form, please do articulate your issue[s] with the project in points. At least 5 points. Don't mention lack of information,this is not a small time investor kind of thing. Information is given to the intended. This is not like a general election,no universal suffrage here. Some persons are more equal than others when it comes to investments. Stop being a cry baby.