Indeed you have been vindicated to some extent but remember you had also given a target price for NIC Bank in the 50's range last year by April 2012! We all make mistakes, not to worry.
For NIC Bank, when you issued your new sell recommendation (when it was trading at Kshs 25 - 26 range), I thought you were being rather harsh. With a PE of less than 4 and trading just above book value, I thought the counter was undervalued and actually bought more between 24.75 & 25.50.
At the current price, I don't expect much upside this year (esp because of its low dividend and upcoming rights issue). But down the line, I will stretch out my neck and target a price of at least Kshs 40 in 2013 (after factoring the bonus and rights issue).
As for DTB, I would indeed agree with you that the share price will most likely stagnate or decline for most of this year.
the deal wrote:[quote=the deal]
Verdict: DRAW
My Recommendation: Avoid/Sell.
VINDICATED.....NON OF THIS BANKS HAVE RETURNED +15% SINCE THIS REPORT WAS PUBLISHED...AT LEAST NIC TRIED BUT THAT'S BECAUSE IT WAS RECOVERING FROM AN OVERSOLD POSITION...I still maintain my SELL recommendation on both of this two banks...buyers can get in at cheaper price cos rights issue shares will have to be offer at a discount (30-50%) to tease buyers
