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Current economy recession and the expected 2013 recovery
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simonkabz
#21 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 4:47:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
Separating the real men from boys. Hehe
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Cde Monomotapa
#22 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 5:42:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
The folly here is the assumption that economies are built by charts & not productivity. The simplest way to end the commotion here is to ask whether the conditions that led to the stress Kenya was in in 2011 are easing or not. And when U can answer this question objectively & frankly...you have a bright future ahead of you smile
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guru267
#23 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 7:29:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
hisah is spot on.... why aren't you guys reading the signs? inverted yield curve= likely recession , however monetary contraction= DEFINITE RECESSION,if you want to compare apples and apples go back to a period of monetary contraction and check out how the economy fared...of the top of my head i can think of two
1.post goldenberg era
2.post SAP(structural adjustment programs) era


Which economic theory are you using to justify that monetary contraction = DEFINITE recession¿¿

Most investors realize the crisis is extremely temporary and are powering on with their projects despite this and political uncertainty...
Be careful about using big words as they maybe very hard to swallow when the tim comes my friend..

NEGATIVE growth in 2012 is completely off the cards.. Even my passionate enemy the WB tends to agree with me on this...

m.yahoo.com/w/news_america/world-bank-cuts-kenya-2011-growth-forecast-4-063308913.html?orig_host_hdr=news.yahoo.com&.intl=us&.lang=en-us
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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kizee1
#24 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 8:50:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
hisah is spot on.... why aren't you guys reading the signs? inverted yield curve= likely recession , however monetary contraction= DEFINITE RECESSION,if you want to compare apples and apples go back to a period of monetary contraction and check out how the economy fared...of the top of my head i can think of two
1.post goldenberg era
2.post SAP(structural adjustment programs) era


Which economic theory are you using to justify that monetary contraction = DEFINITE recession¿¿

Most investors realize the crisis is extremely temporary and are powering on with their projects despite this and political uncertainty...
Be careful about using big words as they maybe very hard to swallow when the tim comes my friend..

NEGATIVE growth in 2012 is completely off the cards.. Even my passionate enemy the WB tends to agree with me on this...

m.yahoo.com/w/news_america/world-bank-cuts-kenya-2011-growth-forecast-4-063308913.html?orig_host_hdr=news.yahoo.com&.intl=us&.lang=en-us



your saying that a monetary contraction doesn't necessarily lead to a recession? Ur joking rite?

what do u understand by a monetary contraction? in ur view the amount of money in circulation doesn't affect economic growth? do u have to be an economist to make sense out of this? name one recession that was not caused by monetary contraction, just one
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guru267
#25 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 9:35:02 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
your saying that a monetary contraction doesn't necessarily lead to a recession? Ur joking rite?

what do u understand by a monetary contraction? in ur view the amount of money in circulation doesn't affect economic growth?

name one recession that was not caused by monetary contraction, just one


My friend two things to mention..

1. The amount of money in circulation does affect economic growth but it has never been the ONLY factor affecting economic growth in an economy..

2. All Recessions maybe caused by monetary contractions as you say but that has never meant that all monetary contractions have resulted in recessions.. if the contraction is dealt with well or is temporary why should a recession result??

So YES I am saying that not all monetary contractions lead to recessions.. it all depends on the nature, duration and severity of the contraction..

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#26 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 9:52:03 AM
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Lower/ reduced economic growth in an economy has never and will never mean the same as an economic recession as long as it remains positive....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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FUNKY
#27 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 10:15:23 AM
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Joined: 4/30/2010
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Cde Monomotapa
#28 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 10:35:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
FUNKY wrote:
http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Finance+minister+in+catch+22++over+tax+measures+in+new+Bill+/-/1006/1295222/-/item/0/-/w4nrbtz/-/index.html

'taming' banks as proposed will move banks from quality to quantity loans. Welcome sub-prime & NINJA loans and when things go pop!! they'll be more blood on politicians hands than their short-sightedness can fathom. Down with this popular/politically motivated laws!
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kizee1
#29 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 10:49:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
your saying that a monetary contraction doesn't necessarily lead to a recession? Ur joking rite?

what do u understand by a monetary contraction? in ur view the amount of money in circulation doesn't affect economic growth?

name one recession that was not caused by monetary contraction, just one


My friend two things to mention..

1. The amount of money in circulation does affect economic growth but it has never been the ONLY factor affecting economic growth in an economy..

2. All Recessions maybe caused by monetary contractions as you say but that has never meant that all monetary contractions have resulted in recessions.. if the contraction is dealt with well or is temporary why should a recession result??

So YES I am saying that not all monetary contractions lead to recessions.. it all depends on the nature, duration and severity of the contraction..



really? can u give me an example of a recession not caused by a monetary contraction just one really
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the deal
#30 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 10:52:37 AM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@hisah @Kizee Some people only see whats happening today or what happened in the past, look at how every Tom & Dick is a critic of CBK today than 7-8 month when things where going wrong? LMAO @Cde read what i wrote 7-8 month ago.
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kizee1
#31 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 11:09:26 AM
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the deal wrote:
@hisah @Kizee Some people only see whats happening today or what happened in the past, look at how every Tom & Dick is a critic of CBK today than 7-8 month when things where going wrong? LMAO @Cde read what i wrote 7-8 month ago.

totally man, anyway everyone is entitled to an opinion
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guru267
#32 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 11:19:30 AM
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Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:

really? can u give me an example of a recession not caused by a monetary contraction just one really


@kizee I agree that recessions are caused by monetary contractions..

My argument is that not all monetary contraction ends in recessions if they are well managed...

1. Kenya is going through monetary contraction for 5 months.. do you see a recession??
2. China is going through monetary contraction for a whole year.. do you see a recession??
3. Uganda.... do you see a recession??

etc etc...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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youcan'tstopusnow
#33 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 11:49:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
FUNKY wrote:

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/w4nrbtz/-/index.html

'taming' banks as proposed will move banks from quality to quantity loans. Welcome sub-prime & NINJA loans and when things go pop!! they'll be more blood on politicians hands than their short-sightedness can fathom. Down with this popular/politically motivated laws!

Can you believe these clowns!?
MPs, however, say they would rather deal with the mess when the possibility being advanced becomes a reality.
“We are in the business of legislation and if indeed this will be bad for the economy as fronted by Treasury, then we shall correct it as necessary.

Cde, hata bei ya mkate ipunguzwe basiLaughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Cde Monomotapa
#34 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 12:14:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:

really? can u give me an example of a recession not caused by a monetary contraction just one really


@kizee I agree that recessions are caused by monetary contractions..

My argument is that not all monetary contraction ends in recessions if they are well managed...

1. Kenya is going through monetary contraction for 5 months.. do you see a recession??
2. China is going through monetary contraction for a whole year.. do you see a recession??
3. Uganda.... do you see a recession??

etc etc...
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Cde Monomotapa
#35 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 12:21:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
FUNKY wrote:

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/w4nrbtz/-/index.html

'taming' banks as proposed will move banks from quality to quantity loans. Welcome sub-prime & NINJA loans and when things go pop!! they'll be more blood on politicians hands than their short-sightedness can fathom. Down with this popular/politically motivated laws!

Can you believe these clowns!?
MPs, however, say they would rather deal with the mess when the possibility being advanced becomes a reality.
“We are in the business of legislation and if indeed this will be bad for the economy as fronted by Treasury, then we shall correct it as necessary.

Cde, hata bei ya mkate ipunguzwe basiLaughing out loudly

nkt! These guys smile another one, one Atwoli calling a transi strike when fuel has dropped 5 bob and Jan might be another 10% drop Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Matatu Owners are not workers Mr. Atwoli!! "Maworkers!!" (be well informed)
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kizee1
#36 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 1:19:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
guru267 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:

really? can u give me an example of a recession not caused by a monetary contraction just one really


@kizee I agree that recessions are caused by monetary contractions..

My argument is that not all monetary contraction ends in recessions if they are well managed...

1. Kenya is going through monetary contraction for 5 months.. do you see a recession??
2. China is going through monetary contraction for a whole year.. do you see a recession??
3. Uganda.... do you see a recession??

etc etc...


so whats your definition of a recession?both countries have seen reduced q/q growth..anyway i am having a headache having this argument...believe what u want man..its your God given right
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guru267
#37 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 1:35:10 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:

so whats your definition of a recession?both countries have seen reduced q/q growth..anyway i am having a headache having this argument...believe what u want man..its your God given right


As long as growth is POSITIVE there is no recession whether it has reduced or not..

The official definition of a recession is two or more quarters of NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEGATIVE economic growth..

Have you seen any negative sign infront of any of these countries growth??
Have you read anywhere that these countries are in recession??

If you have please share!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Cde Monomotapa
#38 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 1:38:57 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Growth on top of growth (even at a slower rate) can never be a recession ama kizungu kigumu?
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Mkimwa
#39 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 2:16:31 PM
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Joined: 10/26/2008
Posts: 380
Either way, there will be reduced economic growth in 2012, i.e. 2012 economic growth will be less than that of 2011. The trend is set, recession or not. The fundamentals are supporting that trend, so are the technicals.

Tough times to be in, cash remains King in such times.
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QW25081985
#40 Posted : Tuesday, December 27, 2011 3:13:18 PM
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Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
ati recession mcheeeewww !
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