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Kenya: The Genesis of an Economic Crisis
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muganda
#11 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 12:49:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
All the signs are there, but no one anticipates the black swan. You see, we know it all, don't we? Until the perfect storm hits!

- inflation at all time high
- equity market suffering
- upcoming elections
- USD KES rate
- drought
- growing budget deficit
- unsustainable interest rate
- property prices up the roof
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StatMeister
#12 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 12:57:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
StatMeister wrote:
I think the CBK wants the shilling to depreciate, its good for the economy

For a net importing nation... How is this a benefit?


Good question


It makes imports expensive giving more headroom for local production. Absolutely necessary for long-term economic growth.

Japan has been trying to devalue their currency, the US grieves that the Chinese currency is too weak hence always favouring Chinese products.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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shenzitype
#13 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 1:43:07 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/13/2007
Posts: 57
For a net importing country a weak currency is not desired.

Policywise we should not ignore the benefits of the liberalization to the general economy, it has made us more competitive in the global markets.

We could also shift from this obsession with imports right now there are kenyans wearing imported second hand knickers!
The result the highest trade deficit ever. Though it may too late for incubation protection of some of these industries - fact remains its been done in places like south africa.
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the deal
#14 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 1:51:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
shenzitype wrote:
For a net importing country a weak currency is not desired.

Policywise we should not ignore the benefits of the liberalization to the general economy, it has made us more competitive in the global markets.

We could also shift from this obsession with imports right now there are kenyans wearing imported second hand knickers!
The result the highest trade deficit ever. Though it may too late for incubation protection of some of these industries - fact remains its been done in places like south africa.

Real talkApplause
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redondo
#15 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 4:12:16 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 161
Location: nairobi
Some countries are so intentional in their efforts to reduce trade imbalance. Why shouldn't we do the same?

http://www.economist.com/node/21530136

http://www.economist.com/node/21530144
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GGK
#16 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 4:45:22 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 608
Location: Ruiru
I guess some form of restriction is now imperative. Look at Thika Road for example, why couldn't we have give our local contractors a chance even if the project was to be be 10 lots? We get a loan from ADB and then send the entire money to China, and the little that is left we import toys from china.

In total, the whole kshs 30 billion goes to China


redondo wrote:
Some countries are so intentional in their efforts to reduce trade imbalance. Why shouldn't we do the same?

"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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StatMeister
#17 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 5:28:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
GGK wrote:
I guess some form of restriction is now imperative. Look at Thika Road for example, why couldn't we have give our local contractors a chance even if the project was to be be 10 lots? We get a loan from ADB and then send the entire money to China, and the little that is left we import toys from china.

In total, the whole kshs 30 billion goes to China


redondo wrote:
Some countries are so intentional in their efforts to reduce trade imbalance. Why shouldn't we do the same?



Haiya, Ephraim Maina, him of Kirinyaga, was given the Thika - Nyeri road in 2003. The bugger has not finished it to date.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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the deal
#18 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 7:03:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kenya Q-Q GDP contracts by 4.6% while y-y up 4.1% while current account deficit doubles I expect the 3Q GDP numbers to be worse at this rate Kenya will enter negative growth by 1H 2012 http://af.reuters.com/ar...ws/idAFL5E7KT3IE20110929
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Cde Monomotapa
#19 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 8:01:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
[quote=the deal]Kenya Q-Q GDP contracts by 4.6% while y-y up 4.1% while current account deficit doubles I expect the 3Q GDP numbers to be worse at this rate Kenya will enter negative growth by 1H 2012 http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL5E7KT3IE20110929[/quote]
Cheers.
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guru267
#20 Posted : Thursday, September 29, 2011 8:04:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Kenya Q-Q GDP contracts by 4.6% while y-y up 4.1% while current account deficit doubles I expect the 3Q GDP numbers to be worse at this rate Kenya will enter negative growth by 1H 2012 http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL5E7KT3IE20110929


kenya in negative growth next year??

dude you rely abit too much on the info in the news..
Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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