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Kenya: Dejavu Asian Financial Crisis of 1997
kizee1
#21 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 2:56:14 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
tonicasert wrote:
@kizee,
Can't the CB tighten the CBR window, not necessarily by hiking the rate, but by other softer means like limiting the number of times of using CBR window in a week/month.



yes thats wat i meant, they could also cap amount they lend to say 4bn...think its the best scenario 4 them
hisah
#22 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 5:02:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I called the CBK a bluff a long time ago and it still remains so...

CBK has enough examples on how to kill the KES short sellers courtesy of other CBs like BoJ, SNB etc who have scuttled spec positions with giant yen and swissie interventions, just to remind the market who is boss...

I continue viewing this as a deliberate event and the unit in charge is pretending they can't understand the problem. Very annoying indeed Brick wall Not talking Sick
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#23 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:42:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
CBKs decision to mop up the KES at these rates to me is no different from Short selling given that only a few weeks ago they did the opposite!
@SufficientlyP
the deal
#24 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 4:04:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Give us the other side of the story Mr. Media man "from our sources" lol!!

Mr PRO the media has real stories to tellLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly the death of the Shilling unfolds as predicted by Mr Media Man
kiio
#25 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:01:20 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/22/2010
Posts: 17
Location: rbi
As long as we don't have a central bank that is 100% independent of political influence, Kenyans prepare yourself for a tough year until general election.
The economist look at the situation in the interest of the Economy in the long run and the politicians look at it on how they can use it to consolidate votes or increase there votes in the short run.but the politicians appoint the economists in the MPC, My guess is as good as mine on who wins here!!!
“Daring ideas are like chessmen moved forward. They may be beaten, but they may start a winning game.” – Wolfgang Von Goethe .
the deal
#26 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 2:28:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Everything I wrote in this article has come to pass even the Prez has called upon the IMF... http://contrarianinvesti...cial-crisis-of-1997.html
Cde Monomotapa
#27 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 2:50:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@deal i've asked u once, and i'll ask again. How did they come out of it? Any suggestions? Surely Samsung tvs & phones e.t.c are still roaming this world c/o S. Korea.
mkonomtupu
#28 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 3:20:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@deal i would also be interested on how they came out of it. I only remember IMF told president of indonesia suharto to do away with food subsidies and he was kicked out of office thro' street protests.


kizee1
#29 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 3:47:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
@deal i would also be interested on how they came out of it. I only remember IMF told president of indonesia suharto to do away with food subsidies and he was kicked out of office thro' street protests.





they let the market(s) bottom out
the deal
#30 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 4:02:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Well the IMF stepped in with a $40 Billion rescue package which helped stabilised their currencies...luckly their exports gained momentum and they were able to recover but the period was characterised by stagflation & lots of pain and claimed some Presidency like @Mkono puts it.
Cde Monomotapa
#31 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 4:06:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
Well the IMF stepped in with a $40 Billion rescue package which helped stabilised their currencies...luckly their exports gained momentum and they were able to recover but the period was characterised by stagflation & lots of pain and claimed some Presidency like @Mkono puts it.

Ok. Thanks. Goes to show that a country is finally judged by its wealth and productivity. Cheers.
the deal
#32 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 4:19:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
the deal wrote:
Well the IMF stepped in with a $40 Billion rescue package which helped stabilised their currencies...luckly their exports gained momentum and they were able to recover but the period was characterised by stagflation & lots of pain and claimed some Presidency like @Mkono puts it.

Ok. Thanks. Goes to show that a country is finally judged by its wealth and productivity. Cheers.

With Kenya its a different scenario...policy markers have not taken any actions to reform the Agriculture sector...the countries biggest forex earner I.e SA receives less rain than KE yet KE is ever buying maize from SA! Even if KE receives the Billions from the IMF there is strong probability this thing will occur all over again unfortunately the IMF is happy to lend thats their business anyway...so long term solutions like irrigation or even GMO after all its the maize we eat!
Cde Monomotapa
#33 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 5:03:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Thankfully there is food ready for harvesting, short rains coming and that KE is a highly diversified economy (benefits of mineral resource poverty) coupled with a reknowned high value work ethic that other countries value/resent/envy. We ain't tapping out any time soon smile
the deal
#34 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 10:39:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
the deal wrote:
Read here how the Weak Shilling is a threat to the NSE http://contrarianinvesti...ancial-crisis-of.htmlSad Sad

Read this article written way back in June and relate to today and you will see some prophecy.
Hunderwear
#35 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 11:47:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
the deal wrote:
the deal wrote:
Read here how the Weak Shilling is a threat to the NSE http://contrarianinvesti...ancial-crisis-of.htmlSad Sad

Read this article written way back in June and relate to today and you will see some prophecy.

Are we into recession already or when do you see us grind into one?
the deal
#36 Posted : Wednesday, October 12, 2011 7:35:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hunderwear wrote:
the deal wrote:
the deal wrote:
Read here how the Weak Shilling is a threat to the NSE http://contrarianinvesti...ancial-crisis-of.htmlSad Sad

Read this article written way back in June and relate to today and you will see some prophecy.

Are we into recession already or when do you see us grind into one?

Lets wait for 3Q and 4Q GDP numbers for confirmation...the pace of contraction should inform us when we enter negative growth
the deal
#37 Posted : Tuesday, November 01, 2011 8:21:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
My prophecy lives.. .
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