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IS Carbacid a safe/sure bet?
the deal
#11 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 7:18:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@horton If a company is a monopoly and posts a drop in profits is a SELL..what would they do in face of a Bharti like onslaught?

Their MOAT is very weak if i had cash i would probably venture into this biz and give this guys a run for their money...anyways here is why i'm less bullish on Carbacid.

1. High electricity costs-look at your bill this month and put Carbacid in your perspective.

2. Super inflation- this will affect their non alcoholic segment

dunkang
#12 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 7:32:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
@deal, i agree fully with you on monopoly, though it is misleading to relate it with centum's exit. as a monopoly, even without cheap Chinese imports (read: eveready woes), they should be making more dough before compe arrives regardless of energy cost and dollar:shilling misbehavior. (Note, their raw materials are got from Nyandarua County, their market is Eastern African).
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Horton
#13 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 11:02:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@horton If a company is a monopoly and posts a drop in profits is a SELL..what would they do in face of a Bharti like onslaught?

Their MOAT is very weak if i had cash i would probably venture into this biz and give this guys a run for their money...anyways here is why i'm less bullish on Carbacid.

1. High electricity costs-look at your bill this month and put Carbacid in your perspective.

2. Super inflation- this will affect their non alcoholic segment



Well BOC and the other company..in Nyanza (spectra international I believe could be wrong about the name though) had (have) the money....they tried and failed miserably!!
Pray tell...how is Carb's "moat weak"?? They have the most accessible source of CO2 in the region...even the mighty Linden group with all their resources know this quite well and they have burnt their fingers before in the CO2 match up.....there is also:
-- LT contracts with soft drink manufacturers
--Very High Net margins in the range of 40-50% show me another company on the NSE that can do over 40% in NM consistently??
--KO, PG have very strong businesses in their own rights as you know even they have a one off drop n profits...doesnt mean their business is "weak" its a mere speed bump carb is no exception....Carbs profits dropping by a mere 13% for the first time in 6-8 halves...does not constitute "fundamental weakness" I had spoken to the directors during at an AGM about a possible onslaught by the Linden group on Carb's CO2 turf but the director confidently told me that they should bring it on as Carb has been doing this business for over a very long time and have got really good at it...something BOC are wary of...
--Zero leverage
--Unlike BOC, Carbs business is still strong as there i no chinese made CO2 machines as is the case with BOCs core O2 business .

There will never be an onslaught similar to bharti in this sector as it is :
A- Not a Tech
B- Quite specialized kinda like mining coz u gotta look for CO2 rich spots/fields to buy and the extract and these are far and few between...
C- Market is not big enough for several players especially because of limited clientele and Reason B above

Your reasons.... High electricity costs and Super inflation pretty much affects all industries in Kenya not just Carb.

the deal
#14 Posted : Sunday, June 05, 2011 12:18:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@horton your post is well informed...i like such posts instead of facebook updates but its sad you dont mention what caused your carbacid to drop profits? it cant be a bump there is a problem...in that aspect Centum is ahead of you i.e lack of business...BOC is an ailing firm...i dont expect compe from...
sparkly
#15 Posted : Sunday, June 05, 2011 9:39:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Horton wrote:


I also think selling Carb for them was a bubu!! Yes they doubled or close to tripled their cash but they get sucker punched by 30% tax on the other end. They pocketed 1.2B including divs Before tax, their cost was .418B which gives them a profit of 782M....after a 30% tax, it comes to 547.4M, Basically doubling their cash......

@Horton you are WRONG on this one. I confirm to you that centum is exempted from paying tax on their investment income.

The ONLY income they pay tax on is parking fees from their idle plot on uhuru highway and interest from bank deposits, which are paltry. If you look at the financial you will see. In fact the company has huge tax assets (refunds due from KRA).

For this reason centum has been the biggest creator of wealth on the nse in the longterm!
Life is short. Live passionately.
Horton
#16 Posted : Sunday, June 05, 2011 10:31:58 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
@ Sparkly.....They are not tax exempt...they had a tax credit mainly because of their accumulated loss in RVR...

I personally don't reckon centum is crème de la crème of the NSE far from it, they go into the housing so late....its like going to the Rave at 6am on a monday morning...good idea if it was earlier....again...im not saying its terrible...its just not the best!!!

On their annual report, they have a "deferred Tax asset"...got the following excerpt from a certain website...used it on one of my term papers a few years ago...will provide link once i get it...

Deferred tax assets are usually intrinsically less certain because there may not be future profits to claim against. Large losses lead to high deferred tax assets, which can make a weak business look as though it is backed by a stronger balance sheet than is the case. This is the major motive for the use of measures that exclude deferred tax, such as tangible common equity. Deferred tax assets are intangibles.


dunkang
#17 Posted : Sunday, June 05, 2011 12:04:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
WAZUANS, if u can remember that BOC tried to take over Carbacid, but failed coz they could not manage to convince 80% of the shareholders (they could only manage 71% of the shareholders). This was followed by the infamous CMA suspension.

later the alliance nominees (read: SKN Matiba) sold their stake (22%) to centum. Its a known fact that the Matibas were the ones opposed to the take-over.

Now that the BOC can manage to convince the required 80%, i, strongly believe that the Linde ground (BOC owners) or any other interested entinty, might try a take-over (this firm is a monopoly, who hates monoploies?!), which, to me, MUST push the share price to above 150 (if and only if it happens before Dec. 2011). I recommend this shares to anyone with cash, like me, now!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

sparkly
#18 Posted : Wednesday, June 08, 2011 8:14:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Horton wrote:
@ Sparkly.....They are not tax exempt...they had a tax credit mainly because of their accumulated loss in RVR...

I personally don't reckon centum is crème de la crème of the NSE far from it, they go into the housing so late....its like going to the Rave at 6am on a monday morning...good idea if it was earlier....again...im not saying its terrible...its just not the best!!!

On their annual report, they have a "deferred Tax asset"...got the following excerpt from a certain website...used it on one of my term papers a few years ago...will provide link once i get it...

Deferred tax assets are usually intrinsically less certain because there may not be future profits to claim against. Large losses lead to high deferred tax assets, which can make a weak business look as though it is backed by a stronger balance sheet than is the case. This is the major motive for the use of measures that exclude deferred tax, such as tangible common equity. Deferred tax assets are intangibles.



@horton, its true they are exempt, on INVESTMENT INCOME. Looking at their published financials you will see pbt for 2011 is 2.294B while pat is 2.292B. Tax was 2m. Investment income alone was 2.261 B. You would expect the tax to be around 30% i.e. 650m since centum has not made an accounting loss in recent memory. Deferred tax is just a accounting term to disclose the difference between depreciation rates on fixed assets for tax and accounting . Centum has insignificant fixed assets so deferred tax is not an issue. You will also note that deferred tax is a BS not P&L item.
Life is short. Live passionately.
the deal
#19 Posted : Wednesday, June 08, 2011 8:24:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Centum's unrealised gains can not be taxed...but with no CGT in Kenya their sale of Carbacid was not taxed.
Horton
#20 Posted : Wednesday, June 08, 2011 8:24:26 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
dont agree with that....no one is tax exempt

Capital Gains tax affects companies but not individuals....i trade stocks thru my company,......unrealized are not taxed until u sell

I believe carb transactions were offset due to the tax credit on the loss they made on other investments like rvr
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