Robinhood wrote:
@Liv, I differ with you on this score. I think the opposite is true. We must slay this dragon of impunity if 2012 will be peaceful. Do you think the parliamentarians do not fear Ocampo? There was this lady who was having nightmares just thinking she might be on the list. I would want the nightmares to continue for anyone who thinks they can act with impunity just because they are MPs, President PM etc

Robinhood,
How do you slay the impunity dragon before 2012? By creating fear in parliament? Do you think parliament will pass laws in fear of Ocampo?

My point was.... There is a high possibility that ICC process at this point will derail the implementation of the new constitution...that is how Kenya can be destroyed.

We do not have an agreed IEBC to carry out elections in 2012. Can the parliament constitute one now when they are divided and the political temperatures are high? I guess not.

Already... ODM thinks that our courts can never be credible to handle these cases even in future with the new constitution.
Imagine getting a CJ who will seem to be favoured by PNU side who are the majority in parliament now.... if ODM loses the election in 2012 they will not go to court.

Both ODM & PNU are talking of potential violence. If this assessment comes to fruition, I agree Kalenjin Warriors may just almost certainly visit Luo homesteads with criminality under the guise of fighting for their rights. The Luhya's may flee in apprehension. Some Kikuyu may in the meantime reclaim stolen property. You wonder if the govt is awake to this possibilities and if so is averting them.

Goodpeople, it seems the political wazua is smokin', n it's only Monday! But let's keep our cool

Will there or will there not be violence due to the ICC process? I bet there wont! It's just that the guys fighting for deferral have to put in a point that looks weighty.

Truth be told, Uhuru and Ruto are the darlings of their communities. Most Agikuyu feel UK is a hero, better than his father! But would they start fighting just coz he's eating beans ugali in the hague? NO!Despite the bitterness that was there among the Agikuyu in 08 due to the barbaric treatment of their kinsmen in the RV and western Kenya, they remained largely peaceful. Infact, organisers of retaliatory attacks had to use Mungiki and pay them! Thus for the Kikuyu to attack, they will need incitement and good money to pay the attackers...who wants to end up with weight loss like Rutto? No one will do it!

For the Kalenjin, I'll go back to the reason for the PEV. The reason was ethnic hatred not elections. There was a lot of Anti-Kikuyu sentiment and dehumanisation of GEMA tribes. I think Kalenjins have a bone to pick with the Kikuyu over land issues. That's why they were glad to get an excuse in 'flawed' elections. They could still have hacked Kyuks if Mibey had been declared winner.

Do they have a bone to pick with Luos? Have Luos been dehumanised? No, not to the level the orange took us against Kikuyus btwn 2005 and 2007.

Thus I dont expect chaos there either. This is politics and desperation by proponents of deferral.

Why do we need a united parliament to implement the constitution, all thats needed from parliament is a majority when it comes to voting. We have mechanisms in place to set up all the structures, including the disollution of parliament by August this year if they don't put in place certain specific structures. I assume between MK and RAO, they control the opposing camps in the house and neither is on the list.

With the O6 gone, a few will cry for WR and UK, but by and large kenyans with their gold fish memories and their opportuinism will quickly move in to fill the voids they will leave.

There will be no violence in 2012. Many will be too busy consolidating the new found power in their counties to care about what happens in Nairobi.

@Liv, I second u. Bt do u thnk nyongo n ilk would be interested in any form of unity?