wazua Wed, Mar 25, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

2 Pages<12
Standard Group: Worth a Contrarian Play?
msimon
#11 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 2:08:28 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
Investragy wrote:
[quote=the deal]http://www.corporatekenya.info/2010/08/standard-group-h1-profit-up-139-per.html

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTE%3D

I expect a further acceleration in the 2H compared to the 1H due to the fact that the Kenyan economy grew 6.1% in 3Q...ALSO compare to

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MTA%3D[/quote]


Hmmm... we havent done solid research on any of the media house, however you are right that SM has serious liquidity issues. At the same time, NM has tons of cash under the mattress, and to me all that cash sitting around scares me. Look at their cash spent on investing activities... close to nada percent-wise of total cash posistion... me not like it.

Question: do you own NM? I would hold on any buying activity related to the media houses, their full year earnings are around the corner and I would use that as a barometer to either go long or not.

As for 2012 ad spending, I would not bank on that as a driver to go long on SM, as both media houses will get ad spending, but mostly on a short term basis and I dont see that as a significant boost to earnings.

Take a loook at this research... http://www.investragy.com/content.php?postid=86

Second Q: why do you want to sell KQ? I would hold KQ for now, I see a lot of potential ahead.

****Just our thoughts!


You know, we can expect media houses to shine in the next 18 months. We like NMG most, we think it has a good position in the market and the fact that they have a large war chest we can expect more acquistions as they head out of East Africa and into the rest of Africa. the only catch is the price that you pay. You see at 170, you are probably going to compound your money at 12-15% over the next 3-5 years. The catch is how much lower can you buy at. The near term catalyst for this stock is the fact that we are seeing more election fever. Look at Uganda for example, the monitor,NTV and Kfm that expect a jump in profits from the on going splash of cash by the politicians. The same wave will be in kenya in a few months time. These are all extra ordinary events in the normal business cycle. We need not to forget that NMG has historically grown its earning by almost 22% over the last 10yrs and by 15% in the last 5 years. This is a good growth stock.Only problem is that its selling at 19x 2010 earnings. But if you could get it at PEs of 12 or less, it would be a perfect defensive stock in your portfolio. But, if you consider the cash on the balance sheet, then this stock would be selling for about 155-150/-. Now if you use this as the estimate, (which is what you are actually buying the share for),by the 2010 eps, you get a PE in the range of 17 which is still expensive, but alot cheaper than the 19x. Thats my take on the media.
2 Pages<12
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.